Saturday 27th May

Any comments on today's racing. Please don't just put in selections ... please add some reason why you think a runner will win
Devasteve
Posts: 546
Joined: Fri Jan 16, 2015 8:29 am

Saturday 27th May

Postby Devasteve » Sat May 27, 2017 11:37 am

Well that wasn't too painful, and neither was yesterday although I didn't have time to post. Still chasing time today too, so managed only half of what I had intended.

Haydock 14.55 Cl 2 3yo-Hcap 374 (101) 8f gd/fm – 15 Run (14 at best)

Last year – 374 (99) gd/sf 13 ran
Garcia 7/2 F 3-8-11 (89) Dr 13 by 0.1l from Chief Whip 4/1 3-9-0 (92) Dr 4

No time to look at this in depth, but I would expect the winner to come from the following quartet:
Mustarrid, Private Mission, Graphite Storm and Indian Dandy.

Chester 15.05 Cl 2 Hcap 280 (105) 7.5f gd/fm – 12 Run

Last year – 280 (105) gd 12 ran
Sound Advice 9/1 7-89-1 (99) Dr 5 by 1l from Gabrial’s Kaka 4/1 F 6-8-8 (92) Dr 6

Fastnet Tempest 4-8-10 (94) Dr 1
13 May Cl 2 Hcap (654) 7f gd/fm Ascot (108) 5/1 F 0.75l 1/24 off 89
Took keen hold, held up in midfield going well, progress 2f out, gap appeared 1f out and soon challenging, ridden to lead last 100yds, stayed on well
Has continued to improve this season, finishing 3rd in the Newbury Spring Cup on his return and following up by taking the Victoria Cup a fortnight back; has been raised 5lbs for that fast ground win, which leaves the major question being how he will handle Chester’s tight turns from the inside stall.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent form run (14 days);
Minus: up 5lbs; Chester debut;
Verdict: looks well handicapped if handling the course from stall 1 and a contender.
Sound Advice 8-9-5 (103) Dr 6
12 May Cl 2 Hcap (187) 7.5f gd/fm Chest (105) 12/1 1.25l 1/11 off 98
Held up, ridden and headway over 1f out, quickened to lead inside final furlong, soon edged left, ran on well
Confirmed his liking for the course when winning over C&D a fortnight ago with Ice Slice (-5) 3.5l back in 3rd and others further back; has been raised 5lbs for that, which leaves him off a 4lbs higher mark than when taking last year’s renewal; will require a new career best to double up today, which seems unlikely for an 8yo.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent form run (14 days);
Minus: up 5lbs;
Verdict: can never be ignored here, but tough ask to repeat and not the strongest contender for the win.
Viscount Barfield 4-8-07 (91) Dr 11
10 May Cl 2 Hcap (194) 7f AW Chelm (99) 3/1 F 1.75l 4/9 off 91
Tracked leaders, effort over 1f out, driven and pressing leaders inside final furlong, stayed on same pace final 100yds
Has a great record here (2/1/3) and not disgraced in last 2 starts on the AW, the latest when 1l back of Mount Tahan (0) at Chelmsford; meets him on 3lbs better terms today and has course familiarity, though not draw, in his favour; not run on fast ground since initial 2 starts as a 2yo when without the since ever-present hood.
Plus: class (F); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent form run (17 days);
Minus: going; draw;
Verdict: draw a poser, but can be overcome over this distance so a possible contender.
Ice Slice 6-8-9 (93) Dr 7
12 May Cl 2 Hcap (187) 7.5f gd/fm Chest (105) 4/1 3.5l 3/11 off 93
Chased leaders, dropped to midfield 4f out, not quicken over 1f out, headway on outer soon after, stayed on to take 3rd well inside final furlong, not pace to reach front two
Runs off only a 2lbs higher mark than when winning over C&D last July and showed much more in his second run back when 3rd to Sound Advice (+5) over C&D a fortnight ago; runs off the same mark today and thus meets SA on 5lbs better terms; has a workable draw and not discounted.
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent form run (15 days);
Minus:
Verdict: not discounted if coming on for his latest run here and a possible contender.

Of others, last year’s runner-up Gabrial’s Kaka runs off 1lb less, but ideally needs rain to fall, while the continuing poor form of the Ryan yard puts me off Mount Tahan. Logic says that Fastnet Tempest should romp this, but there’s a lot of difference between a cavalry charge down the straight 7f at Ascot and the almost continuous tight turns of Chester that have caught many a long-striding horse out, especially as it’s easy to get trapped from the inside stall. Nevertheless, he should be thereabouts, although at the price doesn’t warrant support. One could make a case for each of the others who all have good records here, but in the hopes of finding a viable e/w shot I’d take a chance on Viscount Barfield from Ice Slice to follow Fastnet Tempest home.

Goodwood 15.10 Cl 2 3yo-Hcap 647 (110) 7f gd – 12 Run (11 at best)

Last year – 647 (101) gd 14 ran
Oh This Is Us 9/2 F 3-8-3 (86) Dr 2 by 0.5l from Haalik 5/1 3-9-7 (101) Dr 10

Top Score 3-9-7 (110) Dr 6
Twice a winner over this distance at Meydan in February, but a slow start killed any chance he might have had in the UAE Derby; ran better than his price when last seen in the 2000 Guineas, although never going to challenge; cheekpieces refitted today, though he’s not won with them in the past; moreover, even with Wood’s 5lbs claim is still giving weight to the field.
Plus: class (W+); going (W); distance (W); course (F); trainer (14d); recent outing (21 days); down in class;
Minus:
Verdict: could be fancied on his February wins, and after being outfaced a possible contender in more suitable class.
Aardwolf 3-8-4 (93) Dr 11
06 May Cl 2 Hcap (125) 7f gd/fm Donc (100) 7/2 F 0.5l 1/9 off 89
Set steady pace, quickened 3f out, ridden along well over 1f out, driven and held on well final furlong
Two early wins as a 2yo, but gelded between season and has shown improvement this year in winning on second start at Doncaster earlier in the month; raised 4lbs for this, but won’t find it as easy to dominate from double digit draw.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); trainer (C); recent form run (21 days);
Minus: course (?); up 4lbs;
Verdict: improving, but this tougher than Doncaster and not best drawn to dictate pace; not the strongest contender.
Bless Him 3-8-0 (89) Dr 4
06 May Cl 3 Hcap (78) 7f gd/fm Donc (90) 9/4 F 1.1l 3/7 off 82
Steadied start and held up in rear taking keen hold, headway on inner to track leaders 3f out, ridden along well over 1f out, driven entering final furlong, no impression towards finish
Won AW mdn last month and not disgraced in slowly-run race on turf and hcap debut at Doncaster lto; runs from 5lbs out of the handicap here, probably 4lbs if claimer rides at his lowest weight; fitted with a hood today and well enough drawn in stall 4 so could get involved.
Plus: trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent form run (21 days);
Minus: class (?); going (?); distance (?); course (?); 4lbs (?) ooh; up in class;
Verdict: scope for improvement on turf and well enough drawn to make a mark; a possible contender.
Horroob 3-8-1 (90) Dr 12
04 May Cl 4 Hcap (47) 7f AW Ling (86) 9/4 F 0.25l 1/10 off 86
Chased leader for 1f, steadied back to track leaders, not clear run entering final 2f, gap opened and shaken up over 1f out, quickened to challenge just inside final furlong, ridden and ran on well to lead towards finish
Finished 3rd in a York mdn on only start as a 2yo, but has twice won on the AW this term, albeit in lower class; raised 4lbs for win at Lingfield at the start of the month, but obviously scope for improvement.
Plus: going (F); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent form run (23 days);
Minus: class (?); course (?); up 4lbs; up 2 classes;
Verdict: obviously has scope for improvement, but high draw and way up in class make him a questionable contender.

Normal problems resume with 3yo hcaps as vast improvement can be expected from run to run. I do, however, have a preference for those drawn low over 7f despite the long straight. Thus my tentative pair against the field would be Top Score from Bless Him.

York 15.50 Cl 2 Hcap 311 (101) 5f gd/fm – 19 Run (18 at best)

Last year – 311 (107) gd 15 ran
Harry Hurricane 7/1 4-9-3 (95) Dr 9 by 0.25l from Bogart 12/1 7-8-8 (86) Dr 16

Four against the field here, just didn’t find time to look at them!
East Street Revue, Out Do, Love On The Rocks, Copper Knight

ashofmk
Posts: 374
Joined: Sat Jan 28, 2017 10:10 am

Re: Saturday 27th May

Postby ashofmk » Sat May 27, 2017 1:16 pm

To be honest Steve, I don't know how you have time to do all this analysis.......I'm just too impressed.

I wish I had half the knowledge you have....


Good luck today mate...


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