Saturday 3rd June

Any comments on today's racing. Please don't just put in selections ... please add some reason why you think a runner will win
Devasteve
Posts: 546
Joined: Fri Jan 16, 2015 8:29 am

Saturday 3rd June

Postby Devasteve » Sat Jun 03, 2017 11:25 am

Managed to break even yesterday, but I think I'll be lucky to do that from today's two races - didn't have time for the final sprint at Epsom.

Epsom 15.45 Cl 2 Hcap 616 (109) 6f gd – 20 Run (19 at best)

Last year – 616 (108) gd/sf 17 ran
Caspian Prince 11/1 7-9-6 (104) Dr 17 by 0.05l from Kimberella 10/1 6-8-8 (92) Dr 19
Duke Of Firenze 6/1 7-8-11 (95) Dr 20 was 1.8l 3rd
Blithe Spirit 33/1 5-8-6 (90) Dr 14 was 1.9l 5th
Boom The Groom 14/1 5-9-3 (101) Dr 2 was 3.65l 7th

Kimberella 7-9-10 (109) Dr 20
Unfortunate to be runner-up last year when with Dandy Nicholls being slowly away but only just failing to catch Caspian Prince; even with his rider’s 7lbs claim he’ll run off a 10lbs higher mark today, for in addition to a couple of more wins under Nicholls’ care he won his first 2 starts when moving to the Fahey yard and while he found the Palace House Stks too tough lto at Newmarket he still finished in the top half of the field; dropped back into handicaps and effectively carrying 9-3 he can’t be ignored from his high draw.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (F); trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent outing (28 days); down in class;
Minus:
Verdict: Claimer takes 7lbs off and not dismissed from outside draw, a contender.
El Astronaute 4-8-9 (94) Dr 7
10 May Cl 2 Hcap (187) 5f gd Chest (95) 2/1 F 0.25l 1/9 off 90
Made all, ridden over 1f out, held on well near finish
Very speedy gelding on gd or faster and has won 3 of his last 4 starts, making all at Chester lto in a race that has traditionally proven to be a good trial; carries a 4lbs penalty for that, but bigger worry is that he comes out of stall number 7.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (C); recent form run (24 days);
Minus: 4lbs penalty;
Verdict: has low draw to overcome, but a contender nevertheless.
Duke Of Firenze 8-9-8 (107) Dr 12
18 May Cl 2 Hcap (156) 5f sf York (103) 13/2 0.25l 1/12 off 103
Held up, switched right and headway well over 1f out, ridden to lead just inside final furlong, edged left and kept on well
Another who has taken a hike in the weights since finishing 3rd last year, running off a 12lbs higher mark this time round that includes a 4lbs penalty for his latest success at York last month; that’s exactly the same path as he took last year, but this year will actually be 2lbs worse off with Kimberella; more of a middle draw than when winning this off 97 back in 2013, but another for who the course holds no terrors.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); recent form run (16 days);
Minus: 4lbs penalty;
Verdict: another in-form sprinter, but as an 8yo may struggle to find the necessary improvement to see off some of the younger horses.
Excessable 4-8-2 (87) Dr 13
22 May Cl 3 Hcap (78) 5f gd/fm Rip (87) 9/2 1l 1/11 off 83
Tracked leaders, pushed along over 1f out, led inside final furlong, ridden and kept on well
Gelded between seasons he’s returned as a rapidly improving sprinter winning his last 2 starts at Thirsk and Ripon; carries a 4lbs penalty for his latest success, but is again rising in class today, very much so on this occasion; nevertheless, not one to be entirely ignored from a useful middle draw.
Plus: going (W); distance (W); recent form run (12 days);
Minus: class; course (?); 4lbs penalty; up in class;
Verdict: improving sprinter following the snip, but has to prove himself at this level and thus is a questionable contender.

Plenty of contenders as usual but as the winner has usually been drawn 8 or higher, I have to pass on two-time winner Caspian Prince even though I do remember from the distant past picking a winner from stall 1. Desert Law is another previous winner, but as a 9yo I’m passing again. From my shortlist I’m also passing on Excessable who is a little short of big handicap experience. Of the remaining trio I’ll chance El Astronaute overcoming stall 7 to complete his hat-trick but I expect Kimberella to push him hard as the pair relegate Duke Of Firenze to third.

Epsom 17.15 Cl 2 Hcap 249 (100) 12f gd – 13 Run

Last year – 187 (100) gd/sf 17 ran
Green Light 16/1 5-8-8 (87) Dr 16 by 2.25l from Polarisation 16/1 4-9-7 (100) Dr 14
Barwick 8/1 8-8-11 (90) Dr 7 was 16.25l 9th
Whinging Willie 14/1 7-8-4 (83) Dr 9 was 29.25l 13th

Shraaoh 4-9-0 (93) Dr 2
Unraced as 2yo, had a good first season with only blip coming in the King George V on sf at Royal Ascot; rebounded from that, however, to only just fail to catch Dal Harraild at Goodwood and then far from disgraced when finishing 5th in the Melrose at York; not seen since, but starts the season off the same mark as at York and could have more to show this year.
Plus: class (F); going (F); distance (F); trainer (14d); trainer (C); back in trip;
Minus: course (?); 287-day break;
Verdict: question as to how he’ll go on return, but likely to show further improvement and with stable in form, a contender.
Gawdawpalin 4-8-10 (89) Dr 5
26 Apr Cl 2 Hcap (280) 10f gd Epsom (102) 5/1 1.1l 3/11 off 89
Niggled along in midfield, wanting to hang left down camber and headway over 1f out, stayed on well inside final furlong, snatched 3rd close home
Has form here having won a 3yo-hcap at this meeting last year and then finishing 3rd in the City & Suburban at the end of April, although fit from a pair of AW starts; that form has not worked out, however, with winner Brorocco only being 5th here yesterday; step back up to 12f may help though and improvement expected this term.
Plus: class (W); going (F); distance (F); course (W); trainer (C); form run lto;
Minus: 38-day break;
Verdict: has shown ability to handle this course and could well improve on April visit and thus a contender.
Barwick 9-8-10 (89) Dr 3
26 Apr Cl 3 Hcap (125) 12f gd Epsom (96) 12/1 5.75l 3/9 off 89
Dwelt, headway to chase leaders after 2f, went 2nd 3f out and soon ridden, outpaced by winner but still clear 2nd 2f out, well held 1f out and lost 2nd inside final furlong
Won over C&D here on return last year, plus was also a winner over hurdles last autumn; however, had been off 6 months when trying to repeat last year’s success off a 4lbs higher mark this April; ran well for a long way and only lack of fitness saw him surrender the runner-up spot to Whinging Willie (-11) in the final furlong; meets him on 3lbs better terms today and could well reverse that running; nevertheless, is only 1lb lower than when well beaten in last season’s renewal.
Plus: going (F); distance (W); course (W); trainer (C); form run lto;
Minus: class; up in class;
Verdict: still to prove he can be a force at this level and not a strong contender against mainly younger horses.
Green Light 6-8-7 (86) Dr 7
Won this off 1lb lower mark last year when with Beckett, although showed little thereafter; joined Ellison last October, but fell on his hurdle debut at Musselburgh in early January; reasonable flat return when 4/10 to Gabrial’s King at Thirsk in April, but was nowhere near the same level when a well-beaten 4/5 to Corton Lad in a Cl 4 at Musselburgh in early May; dropped yet another 1lb, but suspect he will need more than that to feature today.
Plus: class (W); going (F); distance (W); course (W); recent outing (29 days);
Minus: up 2 classes; trainer form (0/19);
Verdict: capable on his day, but they are few and far between and not a strong contender today.

In all honesty there are not many I can make a case for based on current form, as those with prior course form such as Sennockian Star has shown little on turf since a couple of years back. So, seeking younger horses in the top half of the handicap I have to take a chance on Shraaoh being fit enough to down Gawdapalin with perhaps Barwick being best of the rest.

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