Saturday 10th June

Any comments on today's racing. Please don't just put in selections ... please add some reason why you think a runner will win
Devasteve
Posts: 546
Joined: Fri Jan 16, 2015 8:29 am

Saturday 10th June

Postby Devasteve » Sat Jun 10, 2017 12:01 pm

Thought the run could come to an end last Saturday. Luckily nothing of note this week as I haven't had time. Bit of a funny set of cards today, but I've stuck with Newmarket, although whether that was wise we'll find out I guess!

Newmarket 15.05 Cl 2 Hcap 129 (99) 6f gd – 13 Run
3yo = 8lbs wfa allowance

Al Qahawa 4-9-13 (98) Dr 11
17 May Cl 2 Hcap (156) 6f sf York (102) 25/1 0.25l 1/16 off 94
Prominent, ridden to challenge strongly over 1f out, kept on, led towards finish
Irish import who recorded a career-best performance in a shock success on his UK debut at York; has only been raised 4lbs for that; obviously open to further improvement, but that was on sf and the form has yet to be franked; nevertheless, has to be of interest.
Plus: class (W); going (F); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent form run (24 days);
Minus: course (?); up 4lbs;
Verdict: could well be more to come and a possible contender.
Gunmetal 4-9-9 (94) Dr 1
19 Apr Cl 2 Hcap (129) 6f gd/fm Nwmk (96) 9/2 2.75l 1/8 off 86
Chased leader until led well over 1f out, ridden and quickened clear entering final furlong, ran on strongly, readily
Impressive over C&D on return, but unfortunate trying to follow up here off an 8lbs higher mark as he didn’t get the best of runs and by the time he got clear it was too late; had little chance last time either as the saddle slipped both after the start and in the final furlong; little worried about value of April win though, as the runner-up had to be dropped to Cl 3 to win and none of the others close up have yet done so; interesting jockey booking though as De Sousa remains in good form.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent outing (22 days);
Minus: 8lbs above last winning mark
Verdict: while jockey a plus, two ‘unlucky’ runs in a row damage his claims to be the leading contender.
Boy In The Bar 6-9-6 (91) Dr 10
26 May Cl 2 Hcap (156) 6f gd Good (98) 6/1 1l 1/13 off 86
Held up in touch in midfield, switched left and effort entering final furlong, ran on well to lead well inside final furlong, going away at finish
Twice a winner last season blues has shown improving form in his 3 starts this term winning at Goodwood lto with Go Far (+5) 1.5l back in 3rd, Stellarta (+9) a further 0.5l in 4th, and Moonraker (+4) further back; has been raised 5lbs for that and while Go Far with his claimer’s allowance is weighted to reverse that running, BINB could yet have more to come.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (F); trainer (14d); recent form run (15 days);
Minus: up 5lbs;
Verdict: improving sprinter and no surprise were he to go close again.
Scorching Heat 3-8-3 (82) Dr 3
29 May Cl 3 3yo-Hcap (125) 6f gd/sf Leic (92) 3/1 2.75l 2/10 off 82
Held up, headway 2f out, led over 1f out, ridden and edged left inside final furlong, ran on well
Lightly-raced 3yo, he won a Cl 4 at Salisbury on his return last month and finished runner-up at :Leicester in a Cl 3 at Leicester 11 days later; obviously improving, but more needed raised in class yet again.
Plus: distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent form run (12 days);
Minus: class (?); going (?); course (?); up in class;
Verdict: improving 3yo but hard to see as a major contender rising in class yet again.
Gin In The Inn 4-9-7 (92) Dr 4
10 May Cl 4 Hcap (75) 7f gd Chest (87) 15/8 F 0.05l 2/13 off 87
Midfield, not clear run over 2f out, headway over 1f out, led narrowly inside final furlong, headed narrowly towards finish
Rather disappointed as a 3yo despite being gelded between seasons, but started this year with a bang winning first 2 starts and then only just going down late on over 7f at Chester lto; has been raised 5lbs for that, which looks a little harsh perhaps; nevertheless, Frankie an interesting booking. Plus: going (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent form run (31 days);
Minus: class; course (?); up 5lbs; up 2 classes;
Verdict: asking a lot up 2 classes and 5lbs and despite trainer’s optimism cannot be viewed as the strongest contender.

Another of these tricky sprints to negotiate, but despite the market support I can’t have Culturati making his first start for 610 days; he may win, but wouldn’t carry my money. Nor can I support the 3yo Scorching Heat despite a 3yo winning last year’s renewal, while Gin In The Inn would seem to be another risky proposition; either may win too, but again have not shown anything to warrant support at this level. The remaining trio aren’t without questions either and it’s tricky to put them in any sort of order. As I’m usually wary of horses coming out of stall 1, perhaps I’ll go high with Boy In The Bar from Al Qahwa and then Gunmetal on the other side.

Newmarket 15.40 Cl 2 Hcap 280 (103) 14f gd – 16 Run (14 at best)

Lord Yeats 4-9-3 (99) Dr 1 (N/R)
19 May Cl 2 Hcap (311) 12f sf York (103) 12/1 6l 1/8 off 88
Made all, wide home turn and led field towards stands' rail, ridden over 2f out, clear over 1f out, stayed on strongly
Gelded and then moved to current yard before the start of last season and got off the start over 12f at Ripon last June; ran well on a couple of other occasions too, although didn’t seem as at home in more valuable hcaps on fast ground on a couple of occasions, including on his final start here last October; made an impressive return when making all in the Jorvik hcap at York last month with Southdown Lad (+6) 7.5l back in 4th; with his 11lbs rise there’s a 12lbs swing in the weights today; trying this trip for the first time, but was a close 2nd over 13f at Hamilton last season and his sire won the Ascot Gold Cup 4 times.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (F); recent form run (22 days);
Minus: course; up 11lbs; up in trip;
Verdict: could well improve with age and distance, although handicapper may have had a say today and not the strongest contender perhaps off this mark.
Nakeeta 6-9-7 (103) Dr 16
27 May List Stks (284) 14f gd/fm York (109) 14/1 3.5l 2/10 off 102
Held up in rear, headway 3f out, chased leaders 2f out, switched right to outer and ridden well over 1f out, stayed on final furlong
Won a pair of 14f hcaps at Haydock as the end of 2015, but failed to finds the winner’s enclosure last season although was runner-up in the Chester Cup, the Brown Jack Stakes and Irish Cesarewitch among other efforts; as a result ran off a 10lbs higher mark in this year’s Chester Cup and it showed; nevertheless, put in a better performance in a listed race at York lto, which has seen him back up 1lb to his season opening mark; looks a tough ask back in hcap company off a 14lbs higher mark than for his last win.
Plus: class (W); going (F); distance (W); trainer (14d); recent form run (14 days); down in class;
Minus: course; up 1lb; back in hcap;
Verdict: useful on his day, but tough ask off top weight and not the strongest contender for the win.
Cape Cova 4-9-5 (101) Dr 15
05 Nov Cl 2 Hcap (498) 12f gd/fm Donc 3/1 F 1.25l 3/15 off 98
Held up, headway on outer 4f out, chased leaders 2f out and soon ridden, driven to challenge entering final furlong, every chance until no extra towards finish
Unraced as 2yo but progressive as a 3yo winning 3 times at up to 14.5f and was made favourite for the November Hcap in first-time blinkers; recorded career finishing 3rd to Prize Money (+4) only getting run out of it well inside the final furlong; gelded between seasons and while made favourite for his return over C&D here last month, the blinkers were missing, plus had been well beaten on only other start on sf so no real surprise he was never really a factor; blinkers back on and on better ground he could well prove a greater threat today.
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (W); course (F); trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent outing (22 days); blinkers refitted;
Minus:
Verdict: only 3lbs higher than for career best and a contender if repeating that form.
Jaameh 4-8-11 (93) Dr 12
27 May Cl 3 Hcap (140) 13.5f gd/fm Chest (90) 11/2 2l 1/10 off 86
Held up, smooth headway to take closer order over 2f out, quickened to lead over 1f out, ridden clear, comfortably
Seems to have improved for his between season gelding as he was runner-up over 14f at Haydock in May and then a fortnight later recorded a career best when a comfortable winner at Chester with Gabrial’s King (0) 3.75l back in 3rd; has been raised 7lbs for that but should confirm with GK on only 4lbs worse terms as despite rising in class again, he’s likely still improving.
Plus: going (F); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent form run (14 days);
Minus: class; course; up 7lbs; up in class;
Verdict: likely still improving and a possible contender
Batts Rock 4-8-2 (87) Dr 4
Not a lot to go on here as he’s only had 4 starts and was making his first start in a year (gelded in between) when running a little green in being outpaced by Appeared at Ascot in mid-May; stepped up to today’s distance at Goodwood a fortnight later he was a little unfortunate to stumble after clipping the heels of another horse and was never able to recover thereafter.
Plus: trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent form run (28 days)
Minus: class; going (?); distance; course;
Verdict: lightly raced and worth a second chance at this distance, so a possible contender.

Others that didn’t make my shortlist include Angel Gabrial whose winless streak stretches back to 2014, Gabrial’s King who has something to find to reverse Chester running with Jaameh, and Hot Beat who comes in with AW form and looks to be lacking at this level on turf. In paring my shortlist down, meanwhile, Lord Yeats goes as the inevitable N/R, while Nakeeta looks to have a tough task back in handicaps off top weight. The other three all have chances, though in the case of Batts Rock it’s more a case of potential than proven ability. Thus I’m inclined to take a chance with the refitting of blinkers and better ground helping Cape Cova to get the better of Jaameh and hope that Batts Rock doesn’t upset the apple cart.

Newmarket 17.25 Cl 2 Hcap 129 (100) 10f gd – 15 Run

Sadly no time for any great study here, but my trio against the field would be:
Firnas – been off for 394 days, but was an impressive mdn winner and has to be considered
Awake My Soul – respectable 4th on return at York and may record his first win for Tate
Beardwood – can removal of cheekpieces and De Sousa spark a return to form?

Firnas is strongly fancied but perhaps Awake My Soul can reverse last November’s defeat to Beardwood.

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