Sunday 11th June

Any comments on today's racing. Please don't just put in selections ... please add some reason why you think a runner will win
Devasteve
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Joined: Fri Jan 16, 2015 8:29 am

Sunday 11th June

Postby Devasteve » Sun Jun 11, 2017 10:42 am

Pleasantly surprised my main race turned out as well as it did yesterday, with the sprint going to a horse coming back from a very lengthy break. Probably stupidly, but I decided to drop down in class today!

Goodwood 16.45 Cl 3 Hcap 97 (85) 7f gd/sf – 9 Run
3yo = 10lbs wfa allowance

Last year – 97 (86) gd/fm 12 ran
Arnold Lane 7/2 F 7-9-12 (86) Dr 2 by 2.25l from Easy Tiger 10/1 4-9-6 (80) Dr 14

The Warrior 5-10-0 (90) Dr 9
25 May Cl 2 Hcap (162) 7f gd Good (102) 8/1 1.75l 2/10 off 88
Mid-division, headway over 1f out, soon ridden, kept on inside final furlong, snatched 2nd close home
Came from the AP O’Brien stable prior to last season, but showed little initially and after finishing 5/16 over C&D here last July was gelded; made hi return on the AW in February and finally scored for his new stable over 8f at Kempton at the end of March when an eye-shield was fitted; followed up with a decent effort at Bath, but dipped in a Cl 4 at Lingfield when the eye-shield removed; first-time visor fitted over C&D here lto and finished well to finish runner-up to Gossiping with Professor (-2), who was squeezed in the final furlong, 2.85l back in 7th; has been raised 2lbs for that and meets P on 3lbs worse terms, which suggests he could confirm that running; however, poor strike rate (1/21 on turf) and de facto top weight with 10-0.
Plus: class (F); distance (F); course (F); recent form run (17 days); down in class;
Minus: going (?); up 2lbs;
Verdict: poor strike rate and welter weight suggest a place contender at best.
Time To Exceed 4-9-7 (83) Dr 1
15 May Cl 3 Hcap (74) 6f gd Wind (90) 7/2 Jt F 0.05l 2/9 off 81
Chased leaders, pushed along over 2f out, switched right to race against rail 1f out, driven and ran on to take 2nd near finish, just failed
Tried initially over 7f as a 3yo but got off the mark on her third outing over 6f in a Doncaster mdn last August; failed when upped to Cl 2 at Salisbury the following month though; returned to take a Cl 4 at Leicester at the end of April and then just failed to get up in a Cl 3 at Windsor lto; has been raised 2lbs for that and may be worth trying over the additional furlong again.
Plus: class (F); trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent form run (27 days);
Minus: going; distance; course; up 2lbs;
Verdict: distance to prove, but apart from that looks a progressive filly and a contender.
Medburn Dream 4-9-6 (82) Dr 4
26 May Cl 4 Hcap (65) 7f gd Good (87) 15/2 1.6l 4/12 off 83
Chased leading pair, effort under pressure over 1f out, stayed on same pace inside final furlong
Won a Cl 2 over 8f on gd/sf at Chepstow last August off this mark but has been rather in and out since; decent effort over 8f on return at Windsor at start of May, but Cl 2 proved beyond him on his next 2 starts; however, bounced back with a respectable 4th over C&D here lto; has been dropped a further lb back to last August’s mark; booking of De Sousa a clue to stable’s confidence, although yet to win over 7f.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (F); course (F); recent form run (16 days); down 1lb;
Minus: up in class;
Verdict: back to form of last August’s win and a contender.

Scottish Glen is not getting any younger but ran some good races in better class than this last season and can be forgiven his return at Newmarket last month. However, even with his rider’s claim he’ll still be carrying more than he’s ever won under before and thus was passed over. Professor didn’t get the best of runs late on here lto, although he looked beaten at the time; nevertheless, he could be closer to The Warrior this time round. Mister Music has a good record here, though would probably prefer 8f and it’s almost two years since his last win. Aventinus 0/0/5 record on turf is enough to rule him out, meanwhile. Of my trio, I do note that both The Warrior and Time To Exceed were both sired by Exceed And Excel. However, with low draws favoured here I’m going for Time To Exceed from Medburn Dream with The Warrior possible making the frame again.

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