Saturday 17th June

Any comments on today's racing. Please don't just put in selections ... please add some reason why you think a runner will win
Devasteve
Posts: 546
Joined: Fri Jan 16, 2015 8:29 am

Saturday 17th June

Postby Devasteve » Sat Jun 17, 2017 12:03 pm

Should of learnt my lesson by now, never drop down in class! Just the two today with York as usual being time-consuming.

York 14.20 Cl 2 Hcap 249 (104) 7f gd/fm – 18 Run
3yo = 9lbs wfa allowance

Last year – 249 (100) gd/sf 10 ran
Felix Leiter 11/2 4-8-13 (94) Dr 9 by 1.25l from Valley Of Fire 16/1 4-8-12 (86) Dr 7

Above The Rest 6-9-11 (101) Dr 18
27 May Cl 2 Hcp (280) 7.5f gd/fm Chest 16/1 2.1l 4/10 off 101
Tracked leaders, going well, not much room over 1f out, soon ridden and one pace
Closed out first season since coming over from the Jarvis yard by winning over 7f at Chester last September; good effort on return when 4/13 over 6f at Ripon in April, but had no chance from his draw in the Victoria Cup on his next start; ran by no means badly back at Chester last month when 4/10 to Fastnet Tempest with Viscount Barfield (-10) a further 1.5l back in 6th; still 9lbs his last winning mark though and suspect he needs some respite from the handicapper before he get back to the winning enclosure.
Plus: class (W); going (F); distance (W); course (F); recent form run (21 days);
Minus: 9lbs above last win;
Verdict: maybe still a little high in the weights to be a contender for the win
Get Knotted 5-9-8 (98) Dr 8
27 May Cl2 Hcap (187) 7f gd/fm York 7/2 3.5l 3/6 off 100
Slight bump start, tracked leaders, headway over 2f out, ridden over 1f out, driven and kept on same pace final furlong
Won over C&D here in similar conditions last July when beating Above The Rest (-4) and subsequently had some good placed efforts over 6/7f; not disgraced in his 3 starts this term, the last 2 here, and maybe coming back to his best; has been dropped a couple of lbs following his recent third here last month, although still 6lbs above last winning mark.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent form run (21 days); down 2lbs;
Minus: 6 lbs above last win;
Verdict: could well be returning to form and drop in weights help make him a possible contender.
Reputation 4-9-1 (91) Dr 7
03 Jun Cl 2 Hcap (249) 6f gd Epsom 25/1 0.5l 1/16 off 87
Chased leaders, 3rd and switched right over 1f out, stayed on well under pressure to lead towards finish, driven out
Shock winner of the Epsom Dash lto, for which he’s been raised 4lbs; that only third success, all over 6f, though had form in lower class at today’s distance last season; on balance though looks to being asked a few questions today.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (F); course (F); trainer (14d); recent form run (14 days)
Minus: up 5lbs; up in trip;
Verdict: yet to win at 7f, and thus hard to pick as a major contender against these hardened veterans
Shady McCoy 7-8-13 (89) Dr 16
25 May Cl 2 Hcap (162) 7f gd Good (102) 5/1 2.1l 4/10 off 89
Slowly away, in last pair, ridden and good headway over 1f out, ran on strongly inside final furlong, went 4th close home
Yet to win at this level but was runner-up to Salateen (+10) at Newmarket last September and a fast-finishing 4th in this season’s Victoria Cup; however, on basis of that should have perhaps have done better at Goodwood lto; however, no surprise were he to run well here off the same mark.
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (W); trainer (C); recent form run (23 days);
Minus: course;
Verdict: may perhaps reach the frame but not the strongest contender for the win.
Gurkha Friend 5-9-4 (94) Dr 1
08 Jun Cl 3 Hcap (78) 8f gd/sf Ripon (94) 6/1 0.6l 3/10 off 93
Tracked leader, ridden to challenge 2f out, led narrowly over 1f out, headed 30yds out
Successful enough last season with a couple of wins, but has shown an upturn in form since being gelded last October in winning 2 of his 4 starts this term and not being beaten far in the others; only just beaten late on at Ripon lto but had previously won a Cl 2 over 9f there on better ground; runs off the same mark today, although is going back up in class, plus has yet to win over this shorter trip; nevertheless, interesting jockey booking.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (F); course (F); recent form run (9 days);
Minus: up in class; down in trip;
Verdict: despite the jockey booking, stall 1 and distance make him a contender with questions.
Theodorico 4-9-1 (91) Dr 11
27 May Cl 4 Hcap (75) 7f gd York (80) 9/1 6l 1/19 off 79
Close up, led halfway, ridden clear 2f out, kept on strongly
15 May Cl 4 Hcap (58) 7f gd Weth (79) 22/1 1.25l 1/16 off 74
In touch, good headway over 2f out, ridden over 1f out, led inside final furlong, driven out
Irish import who has shown major upturn of form since being returned to 7f this term, winning both his May starts; admitted they were both Cl 4, the last an amateur affair, but he could not have been more emphatic and is likely still improving; he’ll need to though, as he runs off a 17lbs higher mark than he did at Wetherby a month ago, plus is up 2 classes.
Plus: going (F?); distance (W); course (W); recent form run (21 days);
Minus: class; up 12lbs; up 2 classes;
Verdict: obviously improving, but being much more serious questions today and not perhaps the strongest contender.

York handicaps get no easier, but to weed out a few that never made the shortlist, Mazyoun is only a 3yo with a Cl 6 AW win as a 2yo, plus hasn’t shown a lot in 3 starts this season since being gelded. At the other end of the weights, Salateen looks to need the handicappers’ help before he’ll be winning in handicaps again. The handicapper is trying to help Heaven’s Guest, but he’s shown little so far this year, while the ground looks wrong for Burnt Sugar. From my shortlist, meanwhile, Reputation, Shady McCoy and Theodorico look the least likely. That leaves Above The Rest, Get Knotted and Gurkha Friend. Of the trio, Gurkha Friend would look to have most to prove, so I’ll go with Get Knotted from Above The Rest.

Sandown 15.50 Cl 2 Hcap 187 (97) 8f gd – 11 Run

Last year – 218 (98) gd/fm 9 ran
Mutamakkin 11/4 F 4-9-7 (91) Dr 7 by 0.75l from Franklin D 7/1 4-9-6 (93) Dr 3
Laidback Romeo 6/1 4-9-0 (84) Dr 9 was 9.25l 7th

Laidback Romeo 5-10-0 (97) Dr 10
25 May Cl 3 Hcap (93) 8f gd Sand (95) 6/1 1l 1/12 off 92
In touch in midfield, ridden and progress from 2f out, driven to lead 150yds out and edged left, stayed on well
Carries a stone more than when 7th in last year’s renewal on his return, but has won his last 3 starts including his return over C&D here last month when getting the better of Greenside (-1) and Sir Roderic (+1); has been raised 5lbs for that and meets the pair on 2lbs and 3lbs worse terms, respectively; the physical weight shouldn’t worry as he has previously won under 10-0 at Windsor; however, yet to win at this level.
Plus: going (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (C); recent form run (23 days);
Minus: class; up 5lbs; up in class;
Verdict: may still have improvement to come second run back and a contender.
Greenside 6-9-11 (94) Dr 2
25 May Cl 3 Hcap (93) 8f gd Sand (95) 6/1 1l 2/12 off 91
Dwelt, held up in last pair, progress over 2f out, hanging when driven just over 1f out, ran on to take 2nd last strides
Lightly raced for his age making only his eighth start today and didn’t get the best of starts on his return here lto and yet still wasn’t beaten far; 2/4 on turf and could perhaps make the extra 2lbs weight difference pay today with Ryan Moore up; class and going are new tests.
Plus: distance (W); course (W); trainer (14 days); trainer (C); recent form run (23 days);
Minus: class (?); going (?); up 1lb; up in class;
Verdict: still has scope for improvement and a contender to reverse last month’s form.
Sir Roderic 4-9-12 (95) Dr 1
25 May Cl 3 Hcap (93) 8f gd Sand (95) 9/1 1.25l 3/12 off 93
Held up in last quartet, smooth progress on outer 2f out, ridden just over 1f out, chased winner inside final furlong, kept on one pace and lost 2nd last strides
Racked up a hat-trick of wins in lower class last summer, but had shown little since till his surprising 3rd to Laidback Romeo here last month when dropped back to Cl 3 no his third run of the season; that may in some ways questions the level of that form; runs off the same mark today, but seems unlikely to reverse the running with the other pair.
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14 days); recent form run (23 days);
Minus: up in class;
Verdict: far better effort lto, but hard to see him reversing form with the front two now they have a run under their belts and not the strongest contender.

While the bottom-weighted pair Alnashama and Palmerston may have more improvement to come and Taurean Star can be forgiven his Victoria Cup run lto, I still think this lies between the top three Laidback Romeo, Sir Roderic and Greenside. I’m not being very original here, but believe that Greenside could well reverse May’s running and relegate Laidback Romeo to second place.

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