Wednesday 21st June

Any comments on today's racing. Please don't just put in selections ... please add some reason why you think a runner will win
Devasteve
Posts: 546
Joined: Fri Jan 16, 2015 8:29 am

Wednesday 21st June

Postby Devasteve » Wed Jun 21, 2017 11:46 am

Too busy to do much at Ascot I'm afraid, but couldn't resist the Hunt Cup

Ascot 17.00 Cl 2 Hcap 1089 (111) 8f gd/fm – 30 Run

Last year – 1089 (112) sf 28 ran
Portage 10/1 4-9-5 (105) Dr 4 by 1.25l from Librisa Breeze 8/1 4-8-11 (97) Dr 26
Battle Of Marathon 25/1 4-9-10 (110) Dr 2 was 2.5l 5th
Bossy Guest 50/1 4-9-4 (104) Dr 19 was 3l 6th
Early Morning 50/1 5-8-12 (98) Dr 7 was 3.35l 8th
Boomshackerlacker 33/1 6-8-13 (99) Dr 32 was 7.57l 19th
Gm Hopkins 12/1 5-9-12 (112) Dr 18 was 8.95l 24th

Fastnet Tempest 4-8-13 (104) Dr 14
27 May Cl 2 Hcap (210) 7.5f gd/fm Chest 5/6 F 0.25l 1/10 off 94
in rear, plenty to do 2f out, headway on inner approaching final furlong, ridden and ran on to lead final strides
13 May Cl 2 Hcap (650) 7f gd/fm Ascot 5/1 F 0.75l 1/24 off 89
took keen hold, held up in mid-division, smooth headway tracking leaders 2f out, running on when not clear run briefly and switched left over 1f out, quickened between horses 1f out, 2nd inside final furlong, ran on to lead final 100 yards
Twice a winner as a 3yo, has showed marked improvement this term; perhaps hit the front too soon when narrowly beaten by Banksea (+12) and Another Touch (+8) in the Newbury Spring Cup on his return, but made no mistake in taking the Victoria Cup here from George William (+6) and Zhui Feng (+9); went on to take a clever win when setting another career best over 7.5f at Chester a fortnight later; raised 5lbs for his Victoria Cup success plus carries a 5lbs penalty for Chester and thus does not appear favourably handicapped with any of his rivals today; however, has only had 10 starts and likely still improving, plus has shown he can extricate himself from a middle draw here.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); recent form run (25 days);
Minus: 5lbs penalty;
Verdict: has scope for further improvement and a definite contender.
George William 4-8-12 (98) Dr 1
13 May Cl 2 Hcap (650) 7f gd/fm Ascot 8/1 0.75l 2/24 off 95
mid-division, headway over 1f out, soon not clear run and switched right entering final furlong, finished well, went 2nd post, not reach winner
22 Apr Cl 2 Hcap (310) 8f gd/fm Newb 10/1 0.75l 4/21 off 94
slowly into stride, towards rear, headway and weaved through over 1f out, ran on inside final furlong, nearest finish
Won 3 times as a 3yo and returned in the same vein when winning at Nottingham in April where he beat GK Chesterton (-4) by 0.25l; went on to overcome a slow start in finishing 4th to Banksea (+6) in the Newbury Spring Cup and then didn’t get the best of runs when a fast-finishing runner-up to Fastnet Tempest (-6) in the Victoria Cup; has been raised 3lbs for that, but better off with FT today; however, stall 1 is hardly the best place to be with his style of running and may find it tough to weave his way through today.
Plus: class (F+); going (W); distance (W); course (F); trainer (14d); recent form run (39 days);
Minus: up 3lbs; stall 1;
Verdict: the draw is a definite negative to his chance of being a strong contender.
GK Chesterton 4-8-13 (99) Dr 13
02 Jun Cl 2 Hcap (250) 8.5f gd Epsom 3/1 Jt F 1l 1/12 off 94
dwelt, soon recovered to lead after 1f and dictated steady pace, clear over 1f out, kept on strongly, unchallenged
The ‘tween seasons ‘snip’ seems to have done the trick as he’s returned a much better performer this year, only just going down to George William (+4) on his return and then winning his next 2 starts, the latest at Epsom at the start of the month; carries a 5lbs penalty for that, but a bigger problem may be his running style as it’s hard to do it from the front here; nevertheless, has much scope for further improvement on only his eighth start.
Plus: class (W); going (F); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent form run (19 days);
Minus: course; 5lbs penalty
Verdict: improving 4yo, but hard to win this from the front and not the strongest contender perhaps.
El Vip 4-8-13 (99) Dr 12
01 Jun Cl 3 Hcap 8f AW Nwcs 2/1 F 2.25l 1/13 off 94
held up in rear, headway over 2f out, led inside final furlong, quickened clear, ran on strongly
Won 2 of his 4 starts at 3yo and didn’t run badly on his return at Bath in April; however, ran no sort of a race at Haydock a fortnight later and was given a month off, bounced back on the AW at the start of the month at Newcastle, however, when an easy winner dropped back to Cl 3; carries a 5lbs penalty for that, but could well have more to come as this only his eighth start today; slight question about the fast ground though, as he is a Pivotal colt and while he didn’t run badly on fm at Bangor, he finished a well-beaten L/10 on gd/fm at Haydock on penultimate start.
Plus: class (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent form run (20 days);
Minus: going; course (?); 5lbs penalty; up in class; ex-AW;
Verdict: up in class, coming from AW and unproven on the ground all add up to a contender with questions.
Banksea 4-9-4 (104) Dr 7
22 Apr Cl 2 Hcap (310) 8f gd/fm Newb 9/1 0.5l 1/21 off 100
held up in mid-division, headway over 1f out, strong run inside final furlong, led towards finish
The higher weighted of Cumani’s pair and having been gelded between seasons made an ideal return by taking the Newbury Spring Cup from Another Touch (-4) and Fastnet Tempest (-12), who both subsequently won; has only been raised 4lbs for that and actually meets the pair on 3lbs and 7lbs better terms, respectively; ran well over C&D here in similar conditions on sole previous visit; however, Spencer prefers El Vip and has been off 2 months.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (F); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto;
Minus: up 4lbs; 60-days break;
Verdict: shares similarities with last year’s winner save for the break, and a possible contender.
Another Touch 4-9-3 (103) Dr 25
31 May Cl 2 Hcap (160) 8.5f gd Nott 9/4 F 2.5l 1/7 off 98
close up, headway over 1f out, led inside final furlong, ridden out
Bit more exposed than most with 4 starts already this year, but put in a good effort when runner-up to Banksea (+4) in the Newbury Spring Cup and after finishing 4th in the Hambleton at York got back to winning ways at Nottingham lto; carries a 5lbs penalty for that, but has a useful 7lbs claimer up to counteract and will actually meet Banksea on 4lbs better terms; moreover, handles the ground, although this will be his first visit here.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); recent form run (21 days);
Minus: course (?); 5lbs penalty;
Verdict: probably not the most fancied, but not without a chance if things drop right.

The annual cavalry charge over Ascot’s straight mile and you could likely make a case for half the field. Among those that didn’t make my shortlist are Tabarrak who has a mammoth task of top weight, the well-fancied Abe Lincoln who is making his season return, as is bottom weight Blair House. Nor can I see Bally Concerto or Bossy Guest being up to this ask. Of those that did make the initial cut, I’ll pass on El Vip coming from an AW track, such horses having a poor record at Ascot. I’m also a little wary of the chances of Another Touch on his fifth start of the season. Although those drawn in double digits have generally prevailed in recent years, as last year showed it is possible to win from a lower draw. However, I don’t think that stall 1 is ideal and thus pass on the chances of George Williamson. That leaves me with three, of which GK Chesterton’s penchant for setting off in front may prove hard to do in this field. Thus I’ll pick Fastnet Tempest and Banksea in this year’s lottery and hope that one of them will at least run into the frame.

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