Friday23rd june

Any comments on today's racing. Please don't just put in selections ... please add some reason why you think a runner will win
Devasteve
Posts: 546
Joined: Fri Jan 16, 2015 8:29 am

Friday23rd june

Postby Devasteve » Fri Jun 23, 2017 10:47 am

Well Wednesday ended much as expected as it is a hard race to untangle. No time yesterday, but maybe we'll have some luck today.

Ascot 17.35 Cl 2 Hcap 498 (105) 12f gd/fm – 19 Run

Last year – 498 (105) gd/sf 19 ran
Kinema 8/1 5-9-4 (99) Dr 19 by 1.25l from Elite Army 9/2 F 5-9-10 (105) Dr 13
Top Tug 16/1 5-9-5 (100) Dr 5 was 9l 7th

Mainstream 4-9-3 (98) Dr 11
07 May Cl 2 Hcap (310 u) 12f gd/fm Nwmkt 6/1 2.75l 3/12 off 96
in rear, headway over 1f out, stayed on final furlong, nearest finish
Winner of a Nottingham mdn as a 2yo, he won over 10f at Salisbury on his return last year; however, besides running well on a number of occasions he failed to add to his tally; gelded between seasons, he recorded a career best on his return over this distance on fast ground at Newmarket in early May when 3rd to Frontiersman and Top Tug (+2); meets TT on 5lbs better terms today and could well reverse that running; both wins came on gd/sf, but showed at Newmarket that he can handle this ground.
Plus: class (F); going (F); distance (F); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto;
Minus: course (?); up 2lbs; 47-day break;
Verdict: promising return and has to be considered a contender from a trainer with a good record in the race.
Cape Cova 4-9-7 (102) Dr 16
10 Jun Cl 2 Hcap (280 u) 14f gd Nwmkt 8/1 1.5l 3/14 off 101
took keen hold in mid-division on outside, headway to go prominent 12f out, led going well over 2f out, hung right and ridden inside final 2f, headed inside final furlong, chased winner until edged left and no extra well inside final furlong
Unraced as 2yo, but progressive as 3yo with 3 wins at up to 14f; gelded after finishing 3rd to Prize Money in the November Hcap on final start; looked to need the race over 14f at Newmarket on his return in May, but recorded a career best there a fortnight ago when 3rd to Jaameh and Byron Flyer in a strong hcap; has been raised 1lb for that and first-time visor replaces the blinkers today; drop back in trip should not prove a problem.
Plus: class (F); going (F); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent form run (13 days);
Minus: course (?); up 1lb; drop back 2f;
Verdict: another who could show more this year and a contender.
Sixties Groove 4-9-3 (98) Dr 15
02 Jun Cl 2 Hcap (250 d) 8.5f gd Epsom 7/1 5l 7/12 off 98
held up towards rear, headway on outside over 1f out, kept on inside final furlong, never able to threaten
09 Nov Cl 2 Hcap (340 d) 11f AW Kemp 5/2 F 0.5l 1/13 off 91
held up towards rear, headway inside final 2f, ridden to lead narrowly over 1f out, edged left inside final furlong, held on
Proved equally at home on turf and AW once switched to handicaps as a 3yo winning 3 times at up to 11f and recording a career best when winning over 11f at Kempton in November; another that’s been gelded over the winter and ran by no means badly over an inadequate extended 8f at Epsom on his return at the start of the month; likely to much more on his mettle today, but yet to win beyond 11f.
Plus: class (W); going (F); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent outing (21 days);
Minus: course (?);
Verdict: should find this trip more to his liking and another contender.
Top Tug 6-9-10 (105) Dr 17
27 May Cl 2 Hcap (160 d) 14f gd/fm Good 100/30 F 1.75l 1/11 off 100
held up towards rear, smooth headway over 2f out, angled out inside final 2f, chased leaders over 1f out, pushed along and quickened to lead inside final furlong, stayed on strongly
Runs off a 5lbs higher mark than when 7th in last year’s renewal but has been in good form; was fit from hurdling when runner-up to Frontiersman at Newmarket in early May, just ahead of Mainstream (-2); built on that to record another career best in winning over 14f at Goodwood in impressive style; has been raised 5lbs for that, but wonder if he’s more effective over further nowadays and might find the drop back to 12f against him off this mark.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); trainer (C); recent form run (27 days);
Minus: course; up 5lbs; drop back 2f;
Verdict: obviously fit and in form, but wonder if drop back in trip might be against him and not the strongest contender.
Appeared 5-9-6 (101) Dr 18
13 May Cl 3 Hcap (100 d) 12f gd/fm Ascot 9/4 F 4.5l 1/7 off 91
tracked leader until settled 4th 10f out, headway on outside over 2f out, 2nd inside final 2f, led over 1f out, clear when edged left briefly entering final furlong, stayed on well
Just a single start at both 2yo and 3yo when with John Ox in Ireland, but he progressed steadily last season in winning 2 of his 5 starts; gelded between seasons, he was impressive in winning over C&D here in similar conditions in mid-May, setting a career best in the process; goes back up in class today off a 10lbs higher mark, but could yet have more to offer, plus is fitted with first-time cheekpieces.
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto;
Minus: up 10lbs; up in class; 41-day break;
Verdict: another with chances, but handicapper has reacted and this much tougher, so not the strongest contender perhaps.

Others that warrant note include Wardigor who is 3/3 so far, but is up 8lbs for his latest Cl 3 win over 11f on the AW and will likely find this opposition a far, far different proposition. He may win, but not for me. However, I would not dissuade anyone from supporting 2015 Cumberland Lodge winner Star Storm for he would certainly hold a chance if the run on his return here signals a return to anything like that level of form. However, I’ll stick with my shortlist, from which Top Tug is the first to go as a 6yo who may now need further. There’s not a lot between the other four, however, and I just hope I’ve called it right in going for Mainstream from Cape Cova with Sixties Groove perhaps holding off Appeared for third.

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