Saturday 24th June

Any comments on today's racing. Please don't just put in selections ... please add some reason why you think a runner will win
Devasteve
Posts: 546
Joined: Fri Jan 16, 2015 8:29 am

Saturday 24th June

Postby Devasteve » Sat Jun 24, 2017 11:56 am

My fate was known early yesterday when both my selections were slowly away. So that just leaves today if I'm going to tease a winner out of this year's Royal Ascot!

Ascot 15.05 Listed Hcap 454 (109) 10f gd/fm – 16 Run

Last year – 454 (109) gd/sf 15 ran
Sir Isaac Newton 7/14-9-0 (102) Dr 5 by 0.5l from Second Wave 20/1 4-9-0 (102) Dr 8
Maverick Wave 20/1 5-9-7 (109) Dr 2 was 15.22l 12th
Pacify 6/1 4-9-0 (102) Dr 10 was 38.22l 14th

Elbereth 6-9-5 (107) Dr 16
02 Jun Gr 1 Stks (2382 u) 12f gd Epsom (123) 33/1 6.25l 4/10 off 107
Dwelt, soon recovered and in midfield, 5th straight, ridden over 2f out, no impression until kept on inside final furlong to snatch 4th last stride, never enough pace to threaten leaders
Has not run in a handicap since runner-up to Educate in the John Smith’s at York last July off 98; only win since has come in a stks at Dundalk in March, but has been running with credit in higher class since, seeing off higher ranked horses when runner-up to Somehow in the Gr 2 Dahlia Stks at Newmarket in early May and then doing the same with another career best when 4th to Highland Reel in the Coronation Cup at the Derby meeting; the latter stepped back to take the Prince Of Wales Stks earlier this week, which provides a precedent for Elbereth to follow.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (F); recent outing (22 days); trainer (14d); down in class;
Minus: up in class; down in distance;
Verdict: although 9lbs above her York mark from last July, seems to have improved and not without a chance of making the frame.
Kidmenever 4-9-2 (104) Dr 10
23 Feb Hcap (610 d) 10f gd Meydan (108) 15/8 F 1.5l 2/14 off 102
Mid-division, not much room 3f out, ran on well, nearest finish
Previously French-trained and winner of the Swiss Derby; moved to current yard in January and performed well in a couple of handicaps in Meydan when last seen in February; but of a worry that his UK debut for his new yard has been so long delayed – first 2 starts here when with Moore – but you never entirely write off a Godolphin runner.
Plus: class (F); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C);
Minus: going (?); course (?); up 2lbs; 121-day break;
Verdict: connections warrant respect, but he would need to be a bit special to return from such a break and win at Royal Ascot and thus not the strongest contender
Central Square 5-9-5 (107) Dr 13
06 May Cl 2 Hcap (311 u) 9f gd/fm Nwmkt (104) 7/1 1.75l 3/9 off 104
Steadied start, held up in last pair, ridden 3f out, switched right over 1f out, headway 1f out, stayed on to go 3rd inside final furlong, never getting on terms with leaders but going on well at finish
Late developer being unraced at 2yo and gelded prior to just 2 starts as a 3yo; off the mark over this distance at Windsor on return at 4yo and twice a winner in hcaps at Ayr and Doncaster, wearing first-time blinkers on latter occasion; ended the season by finishing 3rd at York in October off today’s mark; tried over hurdles during the winter, but that experiment abandoned after finishing midfield at Huntingdon in December; returned sans blinkers at Newmarket in early May with a promising display over an inadequate 9f and will likely appreciate the return to 10f today, plus noted that the blinkers are back on.
Plus: going (F); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto; up in trip;
Minus: class (?); course (?); up 3lbs; up in class; 49-day break;
Verdict: needs to jump off on terms, but a likely contender.
Khairaat 4-9-2 (104) Dr 3
11 May Cl 2 Hcap (187 u) 10.5f gd Chest (105) 10/11 F 4.5l 1/7 off 91
Made all, drew clear inside final furlong, pushed out, comfortably
Unraced at 2yo and only headed final strides on debut in a Salisbury mdn as a3yo; has won all 3 starts, the latest when making all over the extended 10f at Chester on his return and introduction to handicaps last month; handicapper was dutifully impressed and has raised him 13lbs; faces much tougher opposition today, of course, and it is noted that the Chester race has yet to produce winners; nevertheless, he is very much unexposed.
Plus: going (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto;
Minus: class (?); course (?); up 13lbs; up in class;
Verdict: little to go on but folly to ignore and a contender.
Mythical Madness 6-8-13 (101) Dr 15
15 Jun Cl 3 Hcap (91 d) 8f gd Hayd (96) 11/1 1.75l 1/11 off 96
Raced keenly, held up in midfield, not much room on bend 6f out, headway 2f out, ran on inside final furlong, led final 150yds, in command towards finish
A Godolphin disappointment, but has fared better since especially since joining his current yard for O’Meara has managed to conjure up as many wins as his previous 2 trainers combined; the latest came at when dropped to a Cl 3 at Haydock having previously shown improved form in a Cl 2 at Epsom; however, that was over 8f and has yet to show form over this distance on turf for his current yard, although has won over 9.5f at Wolverhampton.
Plus: going (W); distance (W?); trainer (14d); recent form run (9 days):
Minus: class; course (?); up 5lbs; up 2 classes;
Verdict: nicely placed to win lto, but hard to see him making it two in a row and not a strong contender.

I fail to see any justification for the support of Pacify whose only run since finishing well back in last year’s renewal was to finish in midfield in the Newbury Spring Cup and he is still 17lbs above his last winning hcap mark from nearly two years ago. The first to get the chop from my shortlist is Mythical Madness, who is followed by Kidmenever having his first run since February and first UK run in almost two years. Splitting the other three is a bit trickier, however, but as it’s 10 years since the winner was drawn as low as Khairaat, I’ll go for Central Square from Elbereth and Khairaat.

Ascot 17.00 Cl 2 Hcap 1089 (110) 6f gd/fm – 28 Run

Last year – 1089 (109) gd/sf 28 ran
Outback Traveller 10/1 5-9-1 (100) Dr 28 by 0.1l from Brando 7/1 Jt F 4-9-2 (101) Dr 11
Buckstay 10/1 6-9-10 (109) Dr 1 was 3.35l 5th
Poyle Vinnie 33/1 6-9-2 (104) Dr 10 was 6.47l 14th
Boom The Groom 50/1 5-9-2 (101) Dr 18 was 8.47l 18th

Outback Traveller 6-9-4 (104) Dr 23
Runs off a 4lbs higher mark than when taking last year’s from a similarly high draw, but showed little in 3 subsequent starts; made his return in the Victoria Cup here last month, passing beaten horses late to finish in midfield; surely will be tuned up for this, although few have the chips fall right twice in a row.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C);
Minus: 42-day break; no form since last June;
Verdict: no form to go on and a matter of whether lightning can strike twice, but nevertheless a contender
Raucous 4-9-5 (105) Dr 21
22 May List Stks (210) 6f gd Wind (113) 11/4 2l 4/8 off 105
Tracked leaders, ridden to dispute 2nd over 1f out, not quicken and lost ground final furlong
Not frequently seen in hcaps but was 1.25l 3/27 to Dancing Star (0) in last season’s Stewards’ Cup off 102; gelded between seasons and won a Cl 3 stks on his return at Chelmsford in April, before again coming up against Dancing Star in a Listed stks at Windsor; both had to give best to Perfect Pasture with DS (-5) in 2nd being 1.75l ahead of R; change of headgear today with blinkers replacing the usual tongue-tie and cheekpieces; jockey/trainer combination won with High Standing Dr 28 in 2009.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (F); trainer (14d); recent form run (33 days); down in class;
Minus:
Verdict: must have chance on Stewards Cup form and not far off it at Windsor lto, a contender.
Normandy Barriere 5-9-0 (100) Dr 26
12 May Cl 3 Hcap (78) 6f gd/fm Ascot (96) 3/1 F 0.75l 1/7 off 96
Tracked leaders, coaxed along over 2f out, shaken up to close over 1f out, led just inside final furlong and soon in command, ridden out
Usually runs well here and showed improvement over last season winning a Cl 2 at Doncaster in September; runner-up at Newmarket on his return in April and collected when dropped to Cl 3 here last month; has been raised 4lbs for that and could well go well from a decent high draw.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (C); form run lto;
Minus: up 4lbs; up in class; 43-day break;
Verdict: seems to like Ascot and no surprise were he to run well again from a decent draw, a contender.
Projection 4-9-3 (103) Dr 28
Won twice as 2yo, but gelded before light 3yo season in which he put in 3 impressive placed efforts, including a career best when just denied in a blanket finish at Newmarket in mid-August; looked to need his return there last month when 3l back of Eastern Impact (-1) and likely to strip a lot fitter today.
Plus: class (W); going (F); distance (W); trainer (C);
Minus: course (?); 48-day break;
Verdict: obviously an improving sort and likely to come on for season return, a possible contender.
Amazour 5-8-13 (99) Dr 2
13 May Cl 2 Stks (125) 6f gd Hayd (109) 25/1 1.25l 3/8 off 99
Dwelt, held up, ridden well over 1f out, switched left when headway entering final furlong, stayed on well towards finish
Has taken a liking to the AW track at Newcastle being 2/2 there with wins over Moonraker and Poyle Vinnie (+1) but showed ability on turf at Haydock last month; however, stable having a very poor year with just 2 winners from the first 40 runs.
Plus: class (W); going (F); distance (W); course (F);
Minus: 42-day break
Verdict: may possible run better than current price predicts, but not a contender for me.
Eastern Impact 6-9-4 (104) Dr 8
07 May Cl 2 Hcap (311 u) 6f gd/fm Nwmkt 7/1 1.25l 2/14 off 102
Tracked leaders, effort to challenge 2f out, ridden to lead over 1f out, driven and headed inside final furlong, unable to quicken with winner and stayed on same pace after
Won a Gr 3 here back in October 2015 but has struggled since, although more promise in last two outings back in handicap company; however, now back up to his last winning hcap mark so live gets no easier.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); form run lto;
Minus: up 2lbs; 48-day break;
Verdict: looks his trainer’s best chance, but hard to see as a major contender.

A race where we look at 4/5yo drawn at opposite sides of the track, for it takes something special to overcome a central draw if my memory serves me right. In fact 7 of the last 10 winners have been drawn in the 20s. That seems to fit with my shortlist, as the first pair to get the chop were Amazour and Eastern Impact. Concentrating on the remaining bunch, I have to question whether Outback Traveller can become only the fifth horse in history to win the race twice – Selhurstpark Flyer was the last in 1997/8. It seems unlikely, although he may run into a place. With Projection,, meanwhile, I feel his days have yet to come, so I’m going for Raucous from Normandy Barriere with Projection and Outback Traveller fighting it out for the minor places.

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