Saturday 1 July

Any comments on today's racing. Please don't just put in selections ... please add some reason why you think a runner will win
Devasteve
Posts: 546
Joined: Fri Jan 16, 2015 8:29 am

Saturday 1 July

Postby Devasteve » Sat Jul 01, 2017 11:21 am

Well another dismal Ascot, but you can't be lucky and pick a winner there every year! Not much going today as sadly they tore up one of the best course in the country to have AW racing at Newcastle. So seeing as how it'll take a few years before the patterns of racing there become clearer, I'm ducking the Pitman's Derby, etc. Thus all I can offer are a couple of turf races that I'm not that keen on.

Chester 14.55 Cl 2 3yo-Hcap 125 (100) 7f gd/sf – 9 Run

Last year – 125 (93) gd 8 ran
Arcanda 9/4 F 3-9-7 (93) Dr 3 by 0.5l from Penwortham 6/1 3-08-8 (80) Dr 1

Mr Scaramanga 3-9-7 (100) Dr 7
Only UK wins have come in Cl 5 Stks as a 2yo; did win a race at Doha in February, but the value of that form suspect; overall, has shown little although mainly tilting at windmills, as lto in the St James Palace Stks at Ascot; making hcap debut, but hard to say where he’s at either physically or mentally.
Plus: class (W+?); going (F); distance (F); recent outing (11 days);
Minus: course; down in class;
Verdict: hard to know where he’s at and not the strongest contender.
Starlight Romance 3-8-8 (87) Dr 3
10 Jun Cl 3 3yo-Hcap (125 s) 7.5f sf Chest (87) 100/30 F 0.05l 1/9 off 83
Mid-division, effort over 1f out, headway under pressure entering final furlong, ran on well, led last few strides
Has been a consistent performer to date and just got up in the final strides to deny stable companion Vona (0) over 7.5f here last month; after taking the various allowances into account she’ll actually meet the runner-up on 1lb worse terms today, but seems likely to confirm that running off a 4lbs higher mark.
Plus: going (F); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent form run (21 days);
Minus: class (?); up 4lbs; up in class;
Verdict: in good form and from a good draw looks a contender.
Vona 3-8-11 (90) Dr 4
10 Jun Cl 3 3yo-Hcap (125 s) 7.5f sf Chest (87) 10/1 0.05 2/9 off 87
Tracked leaders, pushed along 2f out, ridden to lead inside final furlong, ran on well under pressure, headed last few strides
Hadn’t shown a lot since winning a Listed Stks at York as a 2yo, but made the most of her low draw over 7.5f here lto and only just failed to hold off Starlight Romance (0); has been raised 3lbs for that, but after all the riders’ claims will actually be 1lb better off with SR; shouldn’t be much between them, although SR looks the more consistent.
Plus: class (W+); distance (F); course (F); trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent form run (21 days);
Minus: going (?); up 3lbs; up in class;
Verdict: not without a chance, suspect she’ll find it hard to reverse running with SR and not the strongest contender.
Lualiwa 3-8-3 (82) Dr 2
17 May Cl 3 3yo-Hcap (125) 7f sf York (91) 16/1 2.5l 2/14 off 79
Raced keenly, pressed leader, led over 3f out, ridden 2f out, edged right approaching final furlong, headed inside final furlong, soon slightly hampered by winner, no extra final 50yds
Ran 4 times without success as a 2yo and gelded between seasons; got off the mark in a Cl 5 mdn at Chelmsford in March and followed up with placed efforts at Beverley and York; finished a nose ahead of Starlight Romance (-2) at York in mid-May, but hasn’t had a run since; has a 4lbs swing with SR who has since gone on to win over 7.5f here; break is a bit of a worry, but has to be considered on York running,
Plus: going (F); distance (W); trainer (C); form run lto;
Minus: class (?); course (?); up 3lbs; up in class; 45-day break;
Verdict: break a worry for suspect SR has also improved, so a contender with a question.
Atteq 3-8-1 (81) Dr 1
24 Jun Cl 3 3yo-Hcap (93 d) 7f gd Ayr (92) 9/4 F 1l 3/6 off 80
Took keen hold, tracked leaders, effort when not clear run over 1f out, switched right and kept on inside final furlong, held near finish
Fitting a tongue tie has made all the difference and got off the mark on first fitting at Beverley towards the end of April; narrowly beaten at Musselburgh a week later, but found the jump to Cl 2 too much at Epsom in early June, although didn’t get the best of runs; again met trouble in running at Ayr last weekend and will have to take care not be trapped coming out of stall 1 here.
Plus: distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent form run (7 days);
Minus: class; going (?); course; up 1lb; up in class;
Verdict: another with chances if he can raise his game to this level and a contender.

I think we can include Mr Scaramanga among those with little chance and concentrate on the other four contenders; three of these come from the Fahey yard, which complicates matters somewhat as I’m never sure he knows which is best; however, of the three I believe Vona has the toughest task and thus will tentatively suggest Starlight Romance from Lualiwa and Atteq.

Windsor 15.55 Cl 2 Hcap 123 (100) 11.5f gd – 9 Run

Last year – 129 (96) sf 8 ran
Desert Encounter 11/2 4-8-13 (91) Dr 5 by 0.75l from Passover 9/1 5-9-2 (91) Dr 9

What About Carlo 6-9-7 (100) Dr 5
02 Jun Cl 2 Hcap (311 u) 10f gd Epsom (100) 14/1 0.5l 3/14 off 100
Held up in midfield, effort 2f out, not clear run and trying to switched right but hemmed in over 1f out until headway inside final furlong, ran on strongly final 100yds, not quite reach leaders
Initially thought to prefer softer ground, but has proven himself capable on gd as at Epsom last month when 3rd to Not So Sleepy; however, has a good record at Epsom and had finished runner-up in the same race the year before; nevertheless, the 4th has since won a Cl 2 hcap, plus WAC runs off the same mark today; major question is the trip though as has never won beyond 10f and disappointed in each of his 3 runs over the extended 10f.
Plus: class (W); going (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent form run (29 days);
Minus: distance (?); course (?); up in trip;
Verdict: still 4lbs above highest winning mark and trying a new trip, so a contender with questions.
King Bolete 5-9-6 (99) Dr 7
Won first 2 starts on return last season after being gelded, but 14f looked a little beyond him at Goodwood; can ignore his runs in the Judmonte and at Meydan in January, as he was solely a pacemaker for Postponed; looked to be in need of the run on his return at Redcar at the end of May and has not been seen since; question about whether he can return to the progressive form he showed at the start of last season, although he’s still 5lbs above his last winning mark; nevertheless, cheekpieces fitted for the first time, so perhaps improvement expected.
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (W); trainer (C); recent start (33 days); down 3lbs;
Minus: course (?);
Verdict: not without a chance if cheekpieces do the trick and thus a contender.
Jacob Cats 8-9-1 (94) Dr 4
12 Jun Cl 3 Hcap (74) 11.5f gd/fm Wind (93) 2/1 0.1l 2/4 off 93
Started slowly, took keen hold, held up in last, ridden to chase leading pair 3f out, went 2nd over 1f out on outer, challenged inside final furlong, just held
More exposed than most and equally at home on turf of AW; two quick wins at Kempton on his return in the first week of April; off for 7 weeks and perhaps needed his next start there at the end of May; better effort over C&D here 3 weeks ago though when only just denied by Stockdale Diva (-8); could well reverse that running on 1lb better terms, but is stepping up in class and has never won above Cl 4.
Plus: going (F); distance (W); course (W); trainer (C); recent form run (19 days);
Minus: class (?): up 1lb; up in class;
Verdict: in form, but question as to whether he can be a force at this level and not the strongest contender
Stockhill Diva 7-8-8 (87) Dr 3
12 Jun Cl 3 Hcap (74) 11.5f gd/fm Wind (93) 12/1 0.1 1/4 off 85
Held up in 3rd, tracked leader on outer over 3f out, shaken up to lead over 1f out, hard ridden final furlong, held on
Twice a winner over C&D here but not the most consistent as prior to downing Jacob Cats here last month had finished a distant L/4 in a Cl 4 over the same C&D on his return; has only been raised 2lbs for his latest success, but given his past record unlikely to complete the double going up in class.
Plus: going (W); distance (W); course (W); recent form run (19 days);
Minus: class; up 2lbs; up in class;
Verdict: fit and in form, but this tougher than recent C&D win and not the strongest contender at this level.

An interesting contender here is the Indian-bred Desert God who was a star on the Sub-Continent, but failed to fire in two starts at Meydan earlier in the year and now makes his UK debut. Couldn’t support him, but no surprise if he runs well for a yard that’s been going well of late. In reality, nothing stands out as being without a question or two, but Captain Peacock, Stockhill Diva and Jacob Cats all have to prove they can be a force at this level, so with a question about the new distance for What About Carlo, I’m inclined to stick my pin in King Bolete to win from What About Carlo and Jacob Cats.

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