Saturday 22nd July

Any comments on today's racing. Please don't just put in selections ... please add some reason why you think a runner will win
Devasteve
Posts: 546
Joined: Fri Jan 16, 2015 8:29 am

Saturday 22nd July

Postby Devasteve » Sat Jul 22, 2017 11:21 am

Nice to see everything functioning again Martin - needed it more than ever with the late change in the going requiring readjustments! See what we can do with today's races after last week's readjustment!

Newbury 13.50 Cl 2 Hcap 162 (104) 7f sf – 9 Run (8 at best)
3yo = 7lbs wfa allowance

Last year – 162 (107) gd/fm 9 ran
Boomshackerlacker 9/1 6-9-0 (97) Dr 7 by 0.25l from Dark Emerald 7/1 6-9-9 (106) Dr 5

Remarkable 4-9-8 (104) Dr 2
21 Jun Cl 2 Hcap (1089 u) 8f gd/fm Ascot (111) 25/1 3.8l 6/29 off 105
Raced in stands' side group, midfield, ridden 2f out, headway over 1f out, ran on inside final furlong, going on at finish, 6th of 26 in group
Won first 2 starts as a 3yo and gelded after finishing 5/19 in the Jersey Stks at Royal Ascot; failed to win on return although finished runner-up to Yuften in the Balmoral over 8f at Ascot last October; returned in the Victoria Cup in mid-May and did best of those forced to run on the outer; subsequently disappointed at Epsom, but season’s best when 6th in the Royal Hunt Cup lto; has been dropped 1lb since and now only 1lb above Balmoral mark, although carries 6lbs more physical weight; however, seems to have reserved best form for Ascot, plus has not won over 7f since shedding his mdn tag at Southwell.
Plus: class (F); distance (W); course (F); trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent form run (31 days); (down 1lb);
Minus: going; drop back in trip;
Verdict: this easier than Hunt Cup and a contender if handling the drop back in trip.
Rusumaat 3-9-2 (105) Dr 6
08 Jul Cl 2 Hcap (431 d) 8f gd/fm Sand (105) 8/1 3.27l 7/13 off 105
Held up in midfield, progress 2f out to chase leader briefly just over 1f out, weakened inside final furlong
Won 2 of his 8 starts as a 2yo at up to 6.5f; restless and perhaps in need of his return over 8f at Musselburgh, but then twice finished runner-up when dropped back to 7f; returned to 8f he recorded a career best when making all on fm at Haydock in late May; raised 8lbs for that he finished down the field in the Britannia at Royal Ascot, and since could only finish in midfield at Sandown; maybe a reversion to the forcing tactics may help with the drop back in trip.
Plus: class (W); going (F); distance (F); trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent form run (14 days);
Minus: course (?); drop back in trip;
Verdict: not without chances on Haydock running, but has yet to prove capable of same level when taking on older horses and not the strongest contender perhaps.
Realize 7-9-0 (96) Dr 7
17 Jul Cl 3 Hcap (74 u) 8f fm Bath (88) 11/4 F 2.5l 1/8 off 85
Took keen hold, tracked leaders, trapped in pocket on inner 2f out, switched and waited for gap over 1f out, quickened between horses when in clear, soon led, pushed out inside final furlong, comfortably
Upgrade in yard when moving to his current quarters in May and has since won a pair of lower class hcaps on turf; raised 11lbs for his latest success at Bath, but has won hcaps off a triple digit mark on the AW within the past 18 months and is still 8lbs below his AW mark; the only question is the ground as the sire has a 40% win rate on AW and 21% on gd/fm but less than 10% on anything softer.
Plus: class (W); going (F); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent form run (35 days);
Minus: course (?); up 11lbs; up in class;
Verdict: possibilities if upping his turf form to that on AW, but worries about whether he can on this ground and thus not the strongest contender despite having Ryan Moore aboard.

Early Morning being a N/R has reduced the field to the minimum and with it being over a year since Johnny Barnes or Majeste have recorded a form run they can be ignored. Omran and Straight Right, meanwhile, are both 0/4 on turf, plus the latter is making his hcap bow and debut for his new yard. So no joy there, or with Executive Force who despite winning a 6f mdn here on his debut has shown little since including in his 2 hcap starts since being gelded. So that leaves my trio of Rs, none of which are without questions either. The most likely looks to be top weight Remarkable, who is preferred to Realize and Rusumaat, although I may have the latter pair in the wrong order.

Newmarket 15.50 Cl 2 Hcap 280 (103) 8f sf – 14 Run (13 at best)
3yo = 8lbs wfa allowance

Last year – 280 (102) gd/fm 13 ran
Franklin D 7/2 F 4-9-4 (96) Dr 12 by 6l from Hors De Combat 13/2 5-9-10 (102) Dr 10

Masham Star 3-9-0 (101) Dr 9
15 Jul Cl 2 3yo-Hcap (187 s) 8f gd/fm Nwmkt (100) 8/1 1.5l 2/10 off 100
Led, ridden over 1f out, headed inside final furlong, stayed on same pace
Won 3 of his 12 starts as a 2yo at up to 8f, but has been unable to add to the tally in 11 starts this time round; nevertheless, has shown more promise the last 2 starts since being reunited with McDonald, being runner-up at Hamilton earlier in the month and again in a 3yo-hcap over C&D here last Saturday when recording a career best; has been raised 1lb for that and reverts to taking on older horses again.
Plus: class (F); going (F); distance (W); course (F); trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent form run (7 days);
Minus: up 1lb; reverts to open hcap; no win L 10 starts;
Verdict: seems to go well for McDonald and a possible contender.
Knight Owl 7-9-0 (93) Dr 4
21 May Cl 2 Hcap (143 u) 9f gd Ripon (102) 7/1 1.25l 3/9 off 93
Midfield on inner, angled left and forced way into clear on outer 2f out, soon ridden to chase leaders, kept on
Won the Suffolk Stks over 9f here off 88 on his return last season and was only just denied in the Ripon Rowels off 92 in August also on gd/sf; might have found the fast ground against him when down the field in the Cambridgeshire, although could do no better than 4/10 on his final start at Leicester in October; creditable effort o0n his return at Ripon in late May where he didn’t enjoy the clearest of passages; not seen since, but seems to enjoy extended breaks between races nowadays.
Plus: class (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (52 days);
Minus: going (?); 53-day break;
Verdict: Ripon run suggests he retains his form and a contender if ground doesn’t prove too soft.
Zwayyan 4-8-12 (91) Dr 11
10 Jun Cl 3 Hcap (97 d) 8f sf Hayd (92) 4/1 0.1l 1/13 off 85
Midfield, raced far side entering straight over 4f out, headway over 2f out, ridden and strong challenge from over 1f out, edged left closing stages, ran on to lead post
Unraced at 2yo, won 2 of his 5 starts as 3yo and could perhaps be forgiven his final start here in September, stumbling leaving the stalls and then not getting the best of runs before tiring in the final furlong; gelded in March and not ready for his return at Goodwood 2 months later, virtually treading water from 2f out; back to form after being dropped back to Cl 3 at Haydock in early June though when running on to get up on the post; has been raised 6lbs for that, but still lightly raced (8th start today) and further improvement likely; yet to win at this level, however..
Plus: going (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (42 days);
Minus: class; course; up 6lbs; up in class; 42-day break;
Verdict: could well be still improving and while he has to prove himself at this level, a possible contender
Temple Church 3-8-11 (98) Dr 7
01 Jul Cl 2 3yo-Hcap (311 u) 10.5f gd York (98) 16/1 3l 4/12 off 98
Prominent, pressed leader over 3f out, ridden over 2f out, one pace final furlong
A pair of starts over 8f at Newbury as a 2yo, winning the second one in September; tried over further this term – twice in France – and best effort at York lto when a creditable 4/12 over 10.5f on his hcap debut; interesting to see how he’ll go dropped back in trip, and facing older horses for the first time.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (21 days);
Minus: course (?); debut against older horses; drop back in trip;
Verdict: obviously has scope, but question the drop in trip and not the strongest contender perhaps.

It being a long time (> 9 months) since Dream Walker, Raising Sand or Master The World put in a form run, they can go, especially as it’s over 2 years since the latter won a race. Examiner, meanwhile, is improving on turf, but his best form has been shown on the AW and he may be vulnerable here under a penalty. It’s getting on for 3 months since either Highland Colori or Secret Art recorded form runs, so they can go too, along with Ballard Down who is an AW horse. Of the four who did make my shortlist, I’ve got to question the drop in trip for Temple Church and concentrate on the remaining trio. As the race was won by a 3yo in 2013, I’m happy enough to put Masham Star as my most likely winner with Zwayyan proven on sf just edging out Knight Owl.

Ripon 16.05 Cl 2 Hcap 156 (98) 12f gd/sf – 8 Run

Last year – 156 (I00) gd 14 ran
Soldier In Action 3/1 Jt F 3-8-6 (90) Dr 4 by 1.25l from Snoano 4/1 4-9-8(94) Dr 2
Corton Lad 25/1 6-9-1 987) Dr 3 was 10l 10th

Jaameh 4-10-0 (98) Dr 5
10 Jun Cl 2 Hcap (280 u) 14f gd Nwmk (103) 9/2 F 0/1l 1/14 off 93
Tracked leaders, effort and ridden to chase leader well over 1f out, stayed on to lead inside final furlong, just held on
Won over 10f on hv at Haydock among a number of promising efforts as a 3yo; gelded between seasons and has performed well at around 14f this term, being runner-up at Haydock on return and then winning at Chester and Newmarket; am inclined to ignore effort in the Northumberland Plate where he weakened over 2f out; could well bounce back here, although 10-0 is a lot to carry on softened ground.
Plus: class (W); distance (F); course (F); trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent form run (42 days); drop in trip;
Minus: going; poor AW effort lto;
Verdict: obviously useful sort and while questioning drop back to 12f, a contender.
Kensington Star 4-9-4 (88) Dr 6
01 Jul Cl 2 Hcap (467 u) 16.5f AW Nwcs (90) 7/1 2.85l 4/12 off 87
Chased leader, led 3f out to over 2f out, pressed winner until ridden and one pace final furlong
Joined stable in April and has been kept on the go since winning 2 of his 6 start and being runner-up in 3 others; in fact, his ‘poor’ run in the Northumberland Plate Consolation was the furthest he’d been beaten; has won on both sf and gd/fm, so ground should not prove a problem, although wonder if drop back so far in trip is ideal at this level.
Plus: class (F); distance (F); trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent form run (21 days);
Minus: going (?); course (?); up 1lb; drop in trip;
Verdict: fit and in form, but again question drop in trip to 12f, although still a contender
Mukhayyam 5-9-4 (88) Dr 4
14 Jul Cl 2 Hcap (125 d) 12f gd/fm York (98) 14/1 1.75l 1/7 off 83
Set good pace, pushed along 3f out, ridden well over 1f out, kept on strongly final furlong
C&D winner here last September off 80 had been running consistently this term before making all at York last week in a season’s best off 3lbs higher; has been raised 5lbs for that and rather struggled at this level after winning last season.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d) recent form run (8 days);
Minus: up 5lbs;
Verdict: rather a quick return and not the strongest contender to complete the double off this mark.
Fleeting Visit 4-9-0 (84) Dr 1
28 Jun Cl 4 Hcap (187 u) 11f gd/sf Carl (85) 12/1 0.5l 2/14 off 84
Led, ridden 2f out, edged left and headed inside final furlong, rallied, held near finish
Late return last season but has now gone 8 starts since being gelded without reaching the winner’s enclosure; however, has shown improvement the last twice and put in a fine effort in the Cumberland Plate at Carlisle last month; runs off the same mark today but is up 2 classes and it’s 11 starts since his only success 23 months ago.
Plus: going (F); distance (F); course (F); recent form run (24 days);
Minus: class; up 2 classes; no win in almost 23 months;
Verdict: this looks tougher than Carlisle and not the strongest contender.

Mustaqeem makes his debut for Fahey today having come over from the Stoute yard; sole win came over 8f over 2 years ago and never tried beyond 10f, so not for me even though ground should suit. Sennockian Star has dropped below his last winning mark and with Norton up may go well. However, one suspects that Jaameh is the stable’s premier hope and he may get the better of Kensington Star and Mukhayyam.

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