Saturday 29th July

Any comments on today's racing. Please don't just put in selections ... please add some reason why you think a runner will win
Devasteve
Posts: 546
Joined: Fri Jan 16, 2015 8:29 am

Saturday 29th July

Postby Devasteve » Sat Jul 29, 2017 11:15 am

Right horse, wrong order was the problem last week. See if I can do better this week, though I only concentrated on one race really. Also a warning that I doubt I'll have much chance to look at anything at Goodwood during the week! So fingers crossed this will do until next Saturday.

York 14.05 Cl 2 Hcap 156 (105) 7f gd/sf – 11 Runners
3yos = 7lbs wfa allowance

Last year – 156 (102) gd/fm 10 ran
Get Knotted 11/2 4-9-4 (92) Dr 4 by 0.25l from Above The Rest 10/1 5-9-0 (88) Dr 8

Unfortunately, not a lot of time to look at this, but a quick squint:
Get Knotted – 2lbs higher than when winning last year and not in the same form - No
Salateen – 6lbs higher than when taking the 2015 renewal as a 3yo; could go well, but the yard in shocking form at present (1/68), so - No
Battered – 9lbs higher than when winning C&D here on sf back in May; has since run well off this mark on fast ground at Sandown and looks a likely contender.
Starlight Romance – consistent as a 2yo without getting her head in front, but has won 2 of her 4 starts this term and improved when upped in class at Chester lto; very much a contender.

Very quick look at this with the two taking the eye being pair of 3yos skulking towards the bottom of the handicap. I have a feeling that Battered might be an apt name in regard to the price, so I’ll go the other way round and take Starlight Romance to make the frame from Battered

York 14.40 Cl 2 Hcap 311 (104) 6f gd/sf – 20 Runners (16 at best)
3yos = 5lbs wfa allowance

Last year – 311 (101) gd/fm 16 ran
Kimberella 9/2 F 6-9-8 (99) Dr 5 by 1.75l from Intisaab 7/1 5-8-13 (93) Dr 14

George Bowen 5-9-1 (95) Dr 12
15 Jul Ire Hcap (590) 6.5f gd/fm Curr (99) 6/1 3.15l 7/17 off 97
In rear of mid-division, going well in 12th after halfway, not much room 2f out, switched right 1f out and ran on closing stages, never nearer
15 Jun Cl 3 Hcap (93) 6f gd/fm Nott (90) 2/1 F 4.5l 1/9 off 86
Tracked leaders, headway 2f out, led entering final furlong, soon ridden and quickened clear, readily
Not the most prolific of winners but having shown he was ready at Epsom in June, was dropped in class to collect at Nottingham 12 days later; didn’t get the best of the running at the Curragh mid-month off his 11lbs higher mark and likely would have finished a bit closer; has no form on the ground, although did win on yld at the Curragh back in 2015.
Plus: class (F); distance (W); course (F); form run lto (14 days); down 2lbs; won 1 of last 2 starts;
Minus: going;
Verdict: (8) question about ground, but a likely contender.
Muntadab 5-9-3 (97) Dr 13
Showed promising form earlier when runner-up to Al Qahwa over C&D here on sf, but was out of his depth in the Wokingham 9in a first-time visor and then still not in the front of the argument in first-time cheek-pieces at Hamilton last weekend; softer ground may help and cheek-pieces retained.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (F); recent form run (73 days); trainer (14d); down 2lbs;
Minus: no form last 2 runs; not won 2017;
Verdict: (7) needs to recover earlier form to be considered a contender
Snap Shots 5-9-0 (94) Dr 11
15 Jul Ire Hcap (590) 6.5f gd/fm Curr (99) 7/1 0.5l 2/17 off 91
Went slightly left start, with leaders, close 2nd at halfway, soon pushed along and not much room on inner under pressure 1 1/2f out, soon switched right and kept on inside final furlong, always held
Moved to Coyle yard last October and by the looks of it he’s got to the bottom of him this season making the frame in each of his last 3 starts; raised 3lbs for his latest effort at the Curragh but while he’s 5lbs worse off with George Bowen it’s not impossible that he could conform the running.
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (W); form run lto (14 days); runner-up last 2 starts;
Minus: course; up 3lbs;
Verdict: (6) not impossible that he could go one better and win, a contender.
Al Qahwa 4-9-3 (97) Dr 2
Useful enough for Halford in Ireland and won on his UK debut when just denying Muntadab over C&D here back in May; hasn’t looked anything like that on 2 subsequent starts, however, but Tudhope sticks with him.
Plus: class (W); distance (W); course (W); recent form run (73 days); down 1lb; won 2017;
Minus: going (?); trainer (14d 1/68);
Verdict: (7) going may suit better and a contender if bouncing back to UK debut run.

A race where the winner normally comes from the front of the market, but with N/Rs galore that mightn’t hold true. Still, my best suggestion would be George Bowen from Snap Shots and Al Qahwa.

Ascot 15.00 Cl 2 Hcap 934 (109) 7f gd/sf – 27 Runners
3yos = 7lbs wfa allowance

Last year – 939 (104) gd/fm 24 ran
Librisa Breeze 4/1 F 4-9-1 (100) Dr 14 by 1.5l from Squats 33/1 4-8-6 (98) Dr 22
Withernsea 20/1 5-8-12 (97) Dr 25 was 4.35l 7th
Jack Dexter 20/1 7-9-2 (101) Dr 1 was 6.85l 11th
Heaven’s Guest 8/1 6-9-0 (104) Dr 16 was 10.9l 16th

Fastnet Tempest 4-9-0 (99) Dr 24
21 Jun Cl 2 Hcap (1089) 8f gd/fm Ascot (111) 15/2 4.4l 9/29 off 99
Raced in stands' side, held up, not clear run and headway well over 1f out, switched left entering final furlong, ran on, finished strongly, 9th of 26 in group
Much improved this season, returning to be 3/21 in the Newbury Spring Cup before setting another career best in taking the Victoria Cup over C&D here in May; raised 5lbs for that but set another CB when winning over 7.5f at Chester in late May; raised another 5lbs when tackling the Royal Hunt Cup here, but was perhaps a little far back and didn’t have the best of fortune in running, though was staying on well at the death and was less than 0.75l behind Remarkable (+3); 2lbs better off with him today and fitted with first-time blinkers; however, all his recent form has been on fast ground, although did win his mdn on sf as a 3yo.
Plus: class (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent form run (63 days); Royal Ascot lto; 4yo; won 1 of last 2 starts; drawn 21+;
Minus: going;
Verdict: (11) deserving favourite on season’s form and a contender.
Above The Rest 6-9-5 (104) Dr 27
15 Jul Cl 2 Hcap (747) 7f gd/fm Nwmkt (111) 12/1 0.5l 1/18 off 101
Held up in touch, pushed along over 2f out, ridden and edged right over 1f out, ran on to lead well inside final furlong
Improved form this season and was 4/10 to Fastnet Tempest (-7) at Chester in May before occupying a similar position behind Viscount Barfield at York (-11) at York; continued to build on that and recorded a career best when taking the Bunbury at Newmarket a fortnight ago with Gossiping (0) back in 7th; carries a 3lbs penalty today, which is offset by his rider’s claim, but is 5lbs better off with FT, 7lbs with VB and only 5lbs worse off with G; no problem with the ground as he won in similar conditions last September, but has not enjoyed much success in his 3 visits here.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); form run lto (14 days); career best lto; July meeting lto; won 1 of last 2 starts; drawn 21+;
Minus: course; 3lbs penalty; trainer (0/41 C); 6yo;
Verdict: (8) bucking the odds as a 6yo and perhaps not the strongest contender off this weight.
Gossiping 5-8-11 (96) Dr 15
15 Jul Cl 2 Hcap (747) 7f gd/fm Nwmkt (111) 8/1 3.5l 7/18 off 96
Held up in touch, ridden over 2f out, stayed on under pressure
Has shown marked advance in form this year, but perhaps limitations were exposed in the Bunbury lto and not certain to reverse running with Above The Rest even on 5lbs better terms., especially from a middle draw; moreover, he’s never run on softer than gd, or at Ascot.
Plus: class (W); distance (W); form run lto (14 days); July meeting lto; won 1 of last 2 starts;
Minus: going (?); course (?); middle draw;
Verdict: (4) may have reached his plateau of improvement and not the strongest contender.
Makzeem 4-8-6 (91) Dr 1
14 Jul Cl 2 Hcap (311) 7f gd/fm Nwmkt (100) 15/2 2l 2/18 off 94
Raced stands' side, held up in rear, headway 2f out, not clear run briefly over 1f out, soon switched left and driven, chased winner inside final furlong, stayed on for clear 2nd, no impression on winner, 2nd of 10 in group
Gelded last November, but the key seems to have been the drop to 7f, winning on gd/sf at Newmarket in late June and then putting up another career best to finish runner-up in the Silver Bunbury there off a 6lbs higher mark; actually runs off a 3lbs lower mark today and while I’m not overjoyed with stall 1, Heaven’s Guest won from stall 2 in 2015.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (15 days); career best lto; down 3lbs; July meeting lto; won 1 of last 2 starts; drawn 1-10 (?);
Minus: course (?);
Verdict: (12) not sure about the draw, but a definite contender on that side.
Viscount Barfield 4-8-12 (97) Dr 28
15 Jul List Stks (227) 7f gd Chest (113) 20/1 0.1l 1/10 off 94
Held up, nudged along 4f out, pushed along and headway over 2f out, ran on to lead entering final furlong, held on gamely near finish
Gelded last September and began this season on the AW; however, wasn’t beaten that far when 6/10 to Fastnet Tempest (+3) on his return to turf at Chester in May; followed up by taking a decent hcap at York in mid-June with several of today’s field behind him and then won a listed race at Chester mid-month; the runner-up has since won; won on gd/sf at Chester last season, so handles the ground.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); form run lto (14 days); career best lto; won last 2 starts; drawn 21+;
Minus: course (?); 3lbs penalty;
Verdict: (8) always wary of non-hcap form, but looks to be going the right way and a contender.

Keys here appear to be 4/5yo having run either at Royal Ascot or the Newmarket July meeting lto. Other points are a minimum of 4 starts in the current year, winning at least one, with the last start being within 40 days. Just to add to the help, 8 of the last 10 winners were drawn either 1-9 or 21 or higher. Applying these, and other, factors to my shortlist, the first to go is Bunbury winner Above The Rest who despite the positive draw is a 6yo and they haven’t won any of the last 10 renewals. Joining him is Gossiping, who was behind ATR in the Bunbury, has a middle draw and looks as if he might have already peaked this year. Of the remaining trio I’m a little worried about Viscount Barfield coming from a listed race, Makzeem having a low draw, and Fastnet Tempest’s abilities on the ground. So hoping I get them in better order this week, I’m going for Fastnet Tempest from Makzeem with Viscount Barffield making the frame.

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