Saturday 5th August

Any comments on today's racing. Please don't just put in selections ... please add some reason why you think a runner will win
Devasteve
Posts: 546
Joined: Fri Jan 16, 2015 8:29 am

Saturday 5th August

Postby Devasteve » Sat Aug 05, 2017 11:54 am

Hope you all had a decent Goodwood - as feared I had no chance to look at anything; barely had time to look at today's, which is why it's late!

Goodwood 14.25 Cl 2 Hcap 623 (106) 14f sf – 14 Run

Last year – 623 (105) gd/fm 14 ran
Elidor 16/1 6-9-10 (105) Dr 8 by 0.25l from Qewy 8/1 6-9-9 (104) Dr 4
My Reward 20/1 4-9-1(96) Dr 10 was 7.25l 7th
Arch Villain 25/1 7-9-5 (100) Dr 6 was 62.25l L/14 (slipped badly after 2f)

Shraaoh 4-8-11 (93) Dr 13
08 Jul Cl 2 Hcap (620 u) 12f gd/fm Hayd (104) 9/2 F 3.5l 3/16 off 93
Mid-division, headway on inner 4f out, ridden 2f out, soon 3rd and every chance, stayed on final furlong
Largely progressive as a 3yo, outside of failure in King George V on sf at Ascot; gelded between seasons and perhaps needed the run on return at Epsom in early June when 3.75l 4th to Soldier In Action (+6); finished a little closer to him in the Old Newton Cup lto though when 3.5l 3/16, just 1.25l back of Soldier Of Action (+11) in 2nd and 0.5l ahead of Blakeney Point (-1); meets them on 2lbs and 3lbs better terms, respectively, plus is fitted with cheek-pieces for the first time; looked as if he stayed the trip in the Melrose at York last season, but a question about the ground as he’s never shown form on softer than gd, plus his only win came on the AW.
Plus: class (F); distance (F); trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent form run (28 days);
Minus: going; course (?); yet to win on turf;
Verdict: (4) lowest weighted of Stoute trio and cheek-pieces tried to eke out further improvement; should come out best of ONC trio, but whether that will be enough is debatable and not the strongest contender perhaps.
Blakeney Point 4-8-13 (95) Dr 11
08 Jul Cl 2 Hcap (620 u) 12f gd/fm Hayd (104) 25/1 4l 4/16 off 95
Held up, headway 3f out, not clear run 2f out, soon in clear, ridden and ran on strongly final furlong
Queen’s Prize winner at Kempton back in April, but found the Chester Cup beyond him the following month; has since finished 4/11 over C&D here in late May and then put in a career best when a creditable 4/16 to Dylan Mouth in the Old Newton Cup behind Soldier Of Action (+12) and Shraaoh (+1); not weighted to reverse that running with regular jockey now having ridden out his claim, but neither distance nor going should prove any problem.
Plus: class (W); going (F); distance (W); course (F); trainer (C); recent form run (28 days);
Minus: not weighted to reverse ONC running;
Verdict: (7) not an obvious contender, but proven on ground and distance.
Platitude 4-9-9 (105) Dr 7
Runner-up in last year’s King George V at Royal Ascot on his sole hcap start to date and C&D winner here last August in listed company; form this season has left something to be desired, however, although does handle the ground; down 2lbs for his return to the handicap ranks; the highest weighted of Stoute’s trio.
Plus: class (W+); going (F); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); down 2lbs;
Minus: last form run (343 days);
Verdict; (9) market position based on last year’s form, and not a strong contender on efforts this time round.
Mainstream 4-9-4 (100) Dr 1
14 Jul Cl 2 Hcap (125 d) 12f gd/fm York (98) 7/2 1.75l 2/7 off 98
Awkward and went right start, held up in rear, took closer order 5f out, headway over 2f out, chased winner well over 1f out, driven and kept on same pace final furlong
Her Majesty’s entry, middle weighted of Stoute’s trio, and the choice of Ryan Moore; not won since his return last season, though has been a consistent performer, including in the Duke Of Edinburgh at Ascot on his second run back after being gelded between seasons; he followed that with a career best at York last month, although was again out-battled at the sharp end of the race; steps up in trip today and has shown his ability on this sort of ground, though is up another 2lbs.
Plus: class (F); going (F); trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent form run (22 days);
Minus: distance (?); course (?); up 2lbs; up in trip;
Verdict: (5) worries about his heart in a fight, but Ryan keeps the faith and thus a contender.
Getback In Paris 4-8-10 (92) Dr 8
14 Jul Cl 3 Hcap (97) 14f gd Ascot (96) 5/1 4l 2/9 off 92
Tracked leaders, shaken up to lead 2f out, ridden and headed over 1f out, no chance with winner but held on for 2nd
Step up in trip over C&D here in early June saw him back in the winner’s enclosure for the first time since his debut and has since followed up by being runner-up at Ascot; both those were in Cl 3, however, although has place form at this level on the AW; handled this ground early on in his career in France.
Plus: class (F); going (F); distance (W); course (W); trainer (C); recent form run (22 days);
Minus: up in class;
Verdict: (6) improved by step up in trip, but wonder if he can produce at this level; nevertheless, a contender.

A race in which 4-6yos have generally predominated and thus I’m passing on Saigon City, plus he hasn’t had a run since mid-May. I wouldn’t entirely rule out Soldier In Action, although if the going remains sf it’s a big ask off 9-10. From my shortlist I’m passing on Platitude, who has shown little in his two starts this term, while I’m a little worried about Getback In Paris rising in class. Of the remaining trio I’m inclined to go with Shraaoh as being a gamer finisher than Mainstream, but in these conditions I’m tempted to go with Blakeney Point from Shraaoh and Mainstream.

Goodwood 15.35 Cl 2 Hcap 1556 (110) 6f sf – 27 Run (25 at best)
3yo = 4lbs wfa allowance

Last year – 1556 (109) gd/fm 27 ran
Dancing Star 9/2 F 3-8-12 (102) Dr 4 by 1.25l from Orion’s Bow 6/1 5-9-4 (103) Dr 12
Raucous 16/1 3-8-12 (102) Dr 20 was 1.27l 3rd
Growl 14/1 4-9-0 (99) Dr 26 was 1.37l 4th
Duke Of Firenze 66/1 7-9-0 (99) Dr 14 was 1.87l 5th
Hoofalong 25/1 6-8-10 (100) Dr 10 was 4.64l 14th
Go Far 40/1 6-8-12 (97) Dr 15 was 6.89l 18th
Poyle Vinnie 66/1 6-9-3 (102) Dr 28 was 9.34l 24th

Sir Dancelot 3-8-12 (101) Dr 24
15 Jul Cl 2 Hcap (747 u) 7f gd/fm Nwmkt (111) 16/1 0.5l 2/18 off 106
Slowly into stride, held up, raced keenly, headway over 1f out, soon ridden, ran on
Won the 6f Rockingham Stks at York as a 2yo, but has predominantly been campaigned over 7f; had failed to make his mark in Gr class this season, however, but answered by setting a career best when finishing runner-up in the Bunbury lto after being dropped back to handicapping; actually runs off a 5lbs lower mark today and is 12lbs below his future mark; question about the drop in trip, plus also the ground having not run on softer than gd.
Plus: class (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); recent form run (21 days); down 5lbs;
Minus: going (?); course (?); drop in trip; drawn 20+;
Verdict: (5) with 3yos having won the last 2 renewals a contender.
Growl 5-9-10 (109) Dr 8
15 Jul Gr 1 Stks (2836 u) 6f gd/fm Nwmkt (122) 50/1 2.55l 6/10 off 109
Held up, pushed along and headway over 1f out, edged right, stayed on same pace well inside final furlong
Handles sf and unlucky not to have won more but has been tried at the highest level and not disgraced lto in the July Cup at Newmarket; 10lbs higher than when 4th in last year’s renewal from a high draw, but was runner-up in the British Champions Sprint at Ascot in October.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (F); trainer (14d); recent form run (21 days); down in class;
Minus:
Verdict: (8) top class sprinter who has a chance on suitable ground and a better draw than last year; a contender.
Raucous 4-9-5 (104) Dr 26
22 Jul Gr 3 Stks (340 d) 6f sf Newb 5/1 5l 4/10 off 104
Taken down early, in touch in rear of main group, effort over 2f out, headway over 1f out, 4th and kept on same pace inside final furlong
24 Jul Cl 2 Hcap (1089 u) 6f gd/fm Ascot (110) 11/2 F 3.35l 8/27 off 105
Raced stands' side, steadied and switched left start, held up in rear, closed 2f out, switching left, headway and bumping with rival just over 1f out, chased group leaders and kept on inside final furlong, never quite getting on terms, 3rd of 13 in group
Only 2lbs higher than when an excellent 3rd in last year’s renewal, although not drawn as well this time round; favourite for the Wokingham in first-time blinkers but didn’t get the smoothest of runs in finishing 8th, although 3rd in group; back to the more usual tongue-tie and cheek-pieces today; high draw a negative, but other conditions suit.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (F); trainer (14d); trainer (C); down in class;
Minus: last form run (75 days); drawn 20+;
Verdict: (6) suited by race conditions and a contender of high draw doesn’t spoil his chances.
Projection 4-9-6 (105) Dr 27
24 Jul Cl 2 Hcap (1089 u) 6f gd/fm Ascot (110) 15/2 0.75l 3/27 off 103
Taken down early, raced stands' side, took keen hold, held up in touch in midfield, closed to join leaders and travelling well 2f out, ridden to lead group and every chance over 1f out, kept on well under pressure inside final furlong, 1st of 13 in group
Luckless sort who is never far away as when 3/27 in the Wokingham with Danzeno (+1) and Racous (+5) further back; however, has been raised 2lbs for that and not entirely certain to confirm running with Raucous from the next door stall on today’s terms.
Plus: class (W); distance (W); course (F); trainer (C); form run lto;
Minus: going (?); up 2lbs; 42-day break;
Verdict: (4) best of those that ran in the Wokingham, but not entirely convinced that he will necessarily conform that running under today’s conditions and not my strongest contender.

The annual cavalry charge where picking one in the frame is a major achievement. With 3yos winning the last two renewals you can’t rule them out, although I’d draw a line through anything aged 7yo or above. One I thought might be in with a chance was QAl Qahwa, but then realised that it was from the O’Meara yard that is 0/70 this past fortnight – ‘nuff said. Nor can I seriously consider Shanghai Glory who was last in the Wokingham on his return. With only 2 winners drawn higher than 20 in the past 10 renewals, most of mine seem to be badly drawn, but then only 3 have been drawn in single digits. So having got it down to four, I’m going to ditch Projection and much as I like Growl’s chances go with those drawn high in the shape of Raucous from Sir Dancelot with Growl likely to make the frame.,

Doncaster 16.30 Cl 2 Hcap 125 (98) 10f gd/sf – 10 Run (9 at best)
3yo = 8lbs wfa allowance

Last year – 125 (100) gd 7 ran
Oceanographer 6/1 4-10-0 (100) Dr 6 by 0.25l from Scrutinise 5/1 4-9-10 (96) Dr 1

Zwayyan 4-9-7 (91) Dr 9
22 Jul Cl 2 Hcap (280 u) 8f sf Nwmkt (103) 9/2 6.5l 3/13 off 91
Held up, headway over 2f out, ridden and not clear run over 1f out, stayed on same pace
Unraced as 2yo, but twice a winner last year and gelded between seasons; looked to need his return at Goodwood in May, but put in a career best when winning on sf at Haydock the following month and not disgraced when 3rd at Newmarket lto also on sf; form enhanced yesterday with the runner-up taking the former Golden Mile at Goodwood; up in trip today, but shrewd trainer and likely to get the trip; first-time cheek-pieces fitted.
Plus: course (F); trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent form run (56 days);
Minus: class; going; distance (?);
Verdict: (4) conditions likely to suit and a likely contender if getting the trip
Just Hiss 4-9-7 (91) Dr 2
15 Jul Cl 2 Hcap (156 u) 8f gd York (105) 9/1 0.7l 4/14 off 91
Slight lead, pushed along 3f out, soon headed and ridden, driven over 1f out, kept on well under pressure final furlong
Twice a winner last season but had rather gone off the boil until cheek-pieces fitted and more positive tactics applied; won a Cl3 at York and followed up with a career best there over the same C&D when upped to this level lto; runs off the same mark today and has won on gd/sf; again, a question about the trip though.
Plus: Class (F); going (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); recent form run (21 days);
Minus: course;
Verdict: (8) seems to have recovered his mojo and a definite contender if staying the trip.

Really rushed on this one, but I think we can discount Another Eclipse who was a mdn winner lto, as well as Al Destoor who is stepping up to this level for the first time. One that may be worth watching is Al Hamdany who is having his first run since being gelded. However, the easiest solution to me looks to go southern raider Zwayyan from Just Hiss with perhaps Al Destoor making the frame.

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