Saturday 12th August

Any comments on today's racing. Please don't just put in selections ... please add some reason why you think a runner will win
Devasteve
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Joined: Fri Jan 16, 2015 8:29 am

Saturday 12th August

Postby Devasteve » Sat Aug 12, 2017 10:05 am

Closer than expected last week with the runner-up in the first race, although things rapidly deteriorated after that. Sadly there’s little to look at today, as the annual comedy carnival takes place at Ascot robbing us of any decent racing there – we don’t need jockey’s riding to team orders, it’s tough enough trying to pick winners as it is! So that left us with just two handicaps at Newmarket, although the seemingly mandatory N/R has left us in dire jeopardy of having no qualifying races this Saturday. I can’t remember there ever being so many N/R even before overnight declarations came in. So having woffled on, here’s today’s meagre offerings.

Newmarket 15.05 Cl 2 Hcap 129 (99) 10f gd/sf – 8 Run (7 at best)
Weights raised 1lb
3yo = 8lbs wfa allowance

Last year – 129 (100) gd/fm 8 ran
First Sitting 9/2 5-10-0 (100) Dr 2 by 1.75l from Passover 7/1 5-9-6 (92) Dr 4
Speed Company 12/1 3-9-0 (95) Dr 5 was 3.1l 4th

Atkinson Grimshaw 3-8-4 (83) Dr 3
14 Jul Cl 2 3yo-Hcap (436 u) 10f gd/fm Nwmkt (103) 12/1 1.75l 3/11 off 82
Taken down early, took keen hold, headway to lead over 8f out, ridden entering final 2f, headed entering final furlong, no extra and stayed on same pace inside final furlong
Ran twice as 2yo, finishing 3/6 to Spring Jig over today’s distance on gd/sf on second start last September; won a 9.5f mdn at Wolverhampton in March and then won a 12.5f 3yo-hcap on gd/fm at Chester in May; not seen then until producing another career best in finishing 3/11 to Marzoug over C&D here last month again on fast ground; raised 1lb and making debut against older horses, but this may be less competitive opposition; ground an unknown, although handled gd/sf as a 2yo.
Plus: class (F); going (F); distance (F); course (F); trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent form run (29 days); CB lto;
Minus: up 1lb; debut against older horses;
Verdict: (8) question about ground and older horses, but looks to be a contender.
Anythingtoday 3-9-4 (97) Dr 6
09 Aug Cl 3 Hcap (88 d) 10f sf Bath (90) 4/6 F 2.5l 1/5 off 90
Tracked leaders, shaken up over 2f out, challenged over 1f out, led inside final furlong, pushed clear
Carries a 6lbs penalty for a win at this distance over similar conditions at Bath on Wednesday when setting another career best performance under today’s rider; has shown marked improvement since being gelded in May, particular in winning last 2 starts since being fitted with cheek-pieces; up in class today, but could well be more to come if handling the quick return, as is proven over C&D and in the conditions.
Plus: going (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent form run (3 days); CB lto;
Minus: class (?); up 7lbs; up in class;
Verdict: (8) proven over C&D and in conditions and a strong contender if handling quick return.
Thundering Blue 4-8-12 (83) Dr 4
20 Jul Cl 4 Hcap (52 s) 10f gd/sf Epsom (82) 9/4 4.5l 1/5 off 76
Tracked leader after 2f, pushed along to challenge over 2f out, led well over 1f out, stayed on strongly and drew clear, readily
Largely disappointing in 5 starts as a 3yo and was gelded last autumn; taken his time to find his form this year but showed more promise when stepped up to this trip on penultimate start at Epsom early last month; confirmed this by getting off the mark at the tenth attempt by a definitive margin in a Cl 4 over the same C&D later in the month, setting a new CB; that was on gd/sf, only his second start on softer than gd and there could be more to come despite the 7lbs rise and up 2 classes.
Plus: going (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent form run (23 days); CB lto;
Minus: class (?);course (?); up 7lbs; up 2 classes;
Verdict: (5) up a couple of classes, but impressive at Epsom lto and a possible contender.
Eddystone Rock 5-9-12 (97) Dr 5
01 Aug Cl 2 Hcap (311 d) 10f gd Good (108) 11/1 4.7l 8/16 off 99
Took keen hold, held up towards rear, not clear run and switched left over 1f out, still not enough room until switched right inside final furlong, stayed on well final 100yds, never troubled leaders
15 Jul Cl 2 Hcap (1245 u) 10.5f gd York (109) 20/1 2.37l 6/20 off 99
Held up in midfield, effort on inner and not much room over 2f out, soon ridden and stayed on well final furlong
Won off 95 on final start for Murtagh at Tipperary last August; has yet to win for new connections this side of the Irish Sea but has put in some fine efforts in better class than this, as when a close 6/20 to Ballet Concerto in the John Smith’s at York on penultimate start; had trouble finding a run at Goodwood lto so perhaps unfair to be too critical of that effort; the good news is that he’s been dropped 2lbs since, plus he’s proven on the ground; booking of De Sousa is interesting and he’s likely to get a clearer run in this smaller field.
Plus: class (F); going (F); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent form run (28 days); down 2lbs;
Minus: course (?);
Verdict: (9) has been running in better class without much luck and being proven on the ground is not without a chance

With top weight Speed Company now a non-runner we’re left with just seven, which rather negates it as a potential betting race. However, having put the work in, I’ll continue with a line drawn immediately through Dolphin Vista (making his first start for Meade) and In The Red. I’m not entirely convinced by Ay Ay either, although he does meet Anythingtoday on over a stone better terms than when less than 2.5l 5th to him here last month. Yes, he could well come on for that, the winner showed on Wednesday that he’s already improved by at least 4lbs and there could be more to come again too. Thundering Blue was impressive at Epsom lto, but this is Newmarket and two classes higher opposition, so I’m inclined to pass on his chances too. Judging from the weather forecast I’m expecting the ground to actually be no worse than gd/sf and thus can give a pass to Atkinson Grimshaw on that score, although he is facing older horses for the first time today. While 3yos have a good record in the race (4/10) I’m tempted to go with Eddystone Rock who has run well in tougher races this year without getting the breaks and thus expect to see him beat out Anythingtoday and Atkinson Grimshaw

Newmarket 16.15 Cl 2 Hcap 129 (99) 7f gd/sf – 9 Run (8 at best)
Weights raised 6lbs
3yo = 6lbs wfa allowance

Last year – 129 (98) gd/fm 10 ran
Dutch Law 3/1 F 4-8-9 (87) Dr 8 by 2l from Accession 10/1 7-9-11 (98) Dr 10

Von Blucher 4-9-12 (97) Dr 1
29 Jul Cl 2 Hcap (156 d) 7f gd/sf York (97) 10/2 2.25l 3/10 off 97
Prominent, close up on outer halfway, led over 2f out, joined and ridden over 1f out, headed inside final furlong, kept on same pace
Runs off 11lbs mark that for last win over 8f here on fast ground in July last year; only other win came in an AW mdn; nevertheless, not unnaturally rather over-faced in the likes of the Royal Hunt Cup and Bunbury since coming over from the Gosden yard in May, put in a decent effort when dropped to a more suitable level at York lto; however, one suspects that he’ll need a little help from the handicapper before he’s winning again.
Plus: class (W); going (F); distance (F); course (W); trainer (14d); recent form run (14 days);
Minus: 11lbs above winning mark;
Verdict: (8) this looks more like his level, but poor strike rate suggest he’s not a prime contender off this mark.
War Glory 4-9-4 (89) Dr 3
02 Aug Cl 3 Hcap (162 d) 7f sf Good (95) 7/2 F 4.25l 3/12 off 91
Chased leading pair 5f out, 3rd and held inside final furlong, weakened towards finish
Yet to win on turf, although put in one of his better efforts at Goodwood lto; nevertheless, that’s 6 starts without a win since being gelded between seasons and his last win, over 8f at Chelmsford in July last year, was off 82; down another 2lbs today, but is up in class of opposition.
Plus: class (F); going (F); distance (F); trainer (14d); trainer (C); down 2lbs;
Minus: course; up in class; 120 days since last form run; 0/7 on turf;
Verdict: (4) with no win on turf hard to view as a strong contender.
Khamaary 3-9-5 (96) Dr 9
26 Jul Cl 3 Stks (72) 7.5f sf Ling (90) 2/1 F 3.75l 1/6 off 90
Raced in centre, made all, going best 2f out, soon pushed along and readily asserted, clear and ran on well inside final furlong, easily
Back in the winner’s enclosure at Lingfield lto in a career best to bring her tally to 3/5; the only real blemish to date was in a Cl 2 over C&D here on gd/sf in late June when she weakened late on to finish 5/8, albeit only beaten 2l; raised 6lbs for her latest success and back up in class, but still has scope for improvement and O’Neill has won on her before.
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (W); course (F); trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent form run (17 days); CB lto;
Minus: up in class; up 6lbs;
Verdict: (8) improving 3yo filly who may have more to give and a contender.
Gulliver 3-8-13 (90) Dr 7
01 Aug Cl 3 Hcap (74 d) 6f gd/fm Yarm (95) 5/1 2.5l 2/9 off 89
Slowly into stride and soon pushed along in rear, ridden over 1f out, ran on well inside final furlong, no chance with winner
Won a 7f York mdn on gd on third and final 2yo start with a tongue-tie and blinkers fitted for the first time; finished L/7 in the Craven Stks on his return and after another couple of disappointing outings was gelded in June; didn’t get off to the best of starts at Yarmouth on first run back but was staying on well at the finish; been raised 1lb for that, but more improvement likely if getting away on terms, and step back up in trip could well help; question about the ground, although sire has had few runners as yet.
Plus: distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent form run (11 days);
Minus: class; going (?); course; up 1lb; up in class;
Verdict: (2) step back up in trip could well suit and a possible contender if getting away on terms

The inevitable N/R here (so far!) is the bottom one Easy Tiger, leaving a bare eight in the contest. As suspected too, the going has been revised to gd/sf, causing a revision. However, I had already discarded the other four so there’s not much difference in selection thoughts. Von Blucher’s strike rate and the fact that War Glory has yet to win on turf means my concentration is drawn to the pair of 3yos with Khamaary preferred to Gulliver and perhaps Von Blucher finishing ahead of War Glory.

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