Saturday 19th August

Any comments on today's racing. Please don't just put in selections ... please add some reason why you think a runner will win
Devasteve
Posts: 546
Joined: Fri Jan 16, 2015 8:29 am

Saturday 19th August

Postby Devasteve » Sat Aug 19, 2017 11:16 am

It wasn’t my week last week with botyh races ending up with only 7 runners and thus being qualifying races – too many funny results with small fields, plus the prices are generally too low to compensate for the risk. Things haven’t been any better this week either, as my internet has been dropping out so I’ve lost over five hours work today. So that leaves just a very quick look at the Great St. Wilfrid at Ripon.

Ripon 15.15 Cl 2 Hcap 467 (109) 6f gd – 20 Run (19 at best)

Last year – 436 (109) gd 20 ran
Nameitwhatyoulike 161/1 7-8-13 998) Dr1 3 by 0.25l from Intisaab 7/1 5-8-9 (94) Dr 17
Pipers Note 16/1 6-8-10 (95) Dr 14 was 1.35l 4th
George Dryden33/1 4-9-3 (102) Dr 10 was 1.4l 5th
Snap Shots 16/1 4-8-9 (94) Dr 7 was 2.4l 6th

Growl 5-9-10 (109) Dr 18
05 Aug Cl 2 Hcap (1556 d) 6f sf Good (110) 7/1 0.87l 4/26 off 109
Chased leaders in centre, ridden to chase winner entering final furlong, soon drifted left, kept on
Fine season as a 4yo when besides 3 wins he finished runner-up in the Ayr Gold Cup and the British Champions Stks at Ascot; has taken his time to find form this time round but nothing wrong with last couple of starts in the July Cup at Newmarket and then the Stewards’ Cup at Goodwood where he recorded a season’s best; had Shanghai Glory (-1) 0.75l back of him in 3rd with others down the field at Goodwood, but will meet him on 4lbs worse terms today; not exactly sure the high draw a bonus, but ground should present no problem.
Plus: class (W+); going (F); distance (W); course (F); trainer (C); recent form run (14 days);
Minus:
Verdict: (12) genuine sort and deserves a change of fortune so a contender despite the high draw.
Shanghai Glory 4-9-2 (101) Dr 15
05 Aug Cl 2 Hcap (1556 d) 6f sf Good (110) 14/1 1.62l 5/26 off 101
Tracked leader on far side, ridden when slightly outpaced over 2f out, switched off rails inside final furlong, kept on well final 120yds
Less miles on the clock than most and showed vast improvement after bringing up the rear in the Wokingham on his return to finish a close 5th in the Stewards’ Cup only 0.75l back of Growl; meets him on 4lbs better terms today and may get his revenge.
Plus: class (W+); distance (W); trainer (C); recent form run (14 days);
Minus: going;
Verdict: (8) not overly raced and weighted to reverse Goodwood running with Growl, a contender.
Robero 5-8-11 (96) Dr 11
15 Jul Cl 2 Hcap (747 u) 7f gd/fm Nwmkt (111) 11/1 2.75l 5/18 off 97
Led, headed over 4f out, chased leader, ridden over 2f out, lost 2nd over 1f out, stayed on same pace well inside final furlong
Gone well for Mick Easterby this year having come over from the Ellison yard, having won twice in lower class and running well in the Bunbury at Newmarket lto; question if he belongs at this level of sprinting, but has earned his chance; however, yard not in the best of form of late.
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (W); recent form run (35 days); down 1lb; down in trip;
Minus: course (?); trainer (14d);
Verdict: (9) not proven at this level of sprint, but a contender if repeating Bunbury running.
Flying Pursuit 4-8-11 (96) Dr 13
29 July Cl 2 Hcap (311 u) 6f gd/sf York (102) 12/1 2l 1/15 off 90
Raced towards far side, close up, led over 2f out, ridden clear well over 1f out, kept on well
Has had a rewarding season for Tim Easterby, winning 2 of his last 3 starts under today’s claimer, the latest being the Sky Bet Dash at York where he put in a career best to beat Al Qahwa (+10) by 2l; raised 6lbs for that though and meets AQ on 5lbs worse terms, so not certain to confirm running.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14 d); recent form run (21 days);
Minus: up 6lbs;
Verdict: (14) career best in Sky Bet Dash means he must be considered a contender.
Al Qahwa 4-8-13 (98) Dr 20
05 Aug Cl 2 Hcap (1556 d) 6f sf Good (110) 9/1 8.5l 23/26 off 97
Chased leaders in centre, pushed along when hampered and lost place over 2f out, no chance after, snatched up again when hampered just inside final furlong
29 July Cl 2 Hcap (311 u) 6f gd/sf York (102) 9/1 2/15 off 97
Raced centre, tracked leaders, headway 2f out, soon ridden and kept on well final furlong
Irish import who won on debut for new yard on sf at York in May; disappointed next 2 starts but right back to form when runner-up to Flying Pursuit on gd/sf at York on penultimate start and can perhaps be forgiven his outing in a rough Stewards’ Cup; meets FP on 5lbs better terms than at York, but may prefer more testing ground.
Plus: class (W); going (F); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent form run (21 days);
Minus: up 1lb;
Verdict: (10) interesting Tudhope prefers Wokingham winner Out Do, but no surprise if AQ reversed York running with FP and a contender.

There’s a whole host you can give a chance to, but my rushed efforts have cut it down to these. Fahey has a good record in the race and Growl does deserve a change of fortune, but I’m not sure the combination of a high weight, wide draw and a course like Ripon play to his strengths and thus regretfully draw a line through his chances today. In fact, Shanghai Glory may have the best chance of those that ran in the Stewards’ Cup, although it would be little harsh to judge AL Qaahwa solely on his Goodwood running and he may be closer to Flying Pursuit today than he was at York. I’m not sure which way to go with Robero, but as he’s yet to win a hcap at this level and is dropping back from 7f, I’ve decided to pass. So my best guess today is Flying Pursuit from Al Qahwa with Shanghai Glory and Growl battling it out for the minor places.

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