Saturday 26th August

Any comments on today's racing. Please don't just put in selections ... please add some reason why you think a runner will win
Devasteve
Posts: 546
Joined: Fri Jan 16, 2015 8:29 am

Saturday 26th August

Postby Devasteve » Sat Aug 26, 2017 10:43 am

Struck by the curse of picking the wrong pair again on Thursday, so still am 0 for 2017 at York. Don't expect that to get much better today either with it being the Ebor, and I didn't have enough time for more than the quickest run through of the other races.

Goodwood 14.45 Cl 2 Hcap 623 (108) 7f gd – 20 Run (19 at best)

Last year – 623 (108) gd/fm 17 ran
Certificate 7/2 F 5-9-5 (11103) Dr 6 by 0.1l from Suzi’s Connoisseur 25/1 5-90 (98) Dr 13
Shady McCoy 10/1 6-7-13 (90) Dr 16 was 2.35l 6th

Ultimate Avenue 3-8-11 (100) Dr 5
13 Jul Cl 2 3yo-Hcap (623 u) 6f gd Nwmkt (104) 28/1 0.6l 3/19 off 97
Raced centre until went far side after 2f, steadied start, held up in rear, closed but not clear run on far rail over 1f out, switched right inside final furlong, ran on strongly final 100yds, not quite reach leaders
Won Newbury mdn over this distance as a 2yo, but disappointed when upped to 8f at Kempton in April; however, the addition of a tongue-tie brought marked improvement when next seen over 6f at Newmarket last month where he recorded a career best; up 3lbs, but interesting returned to 7f.
Plus: class (F); going (F); distance (W); trainer (14d); form run lto;
Minus: course (?); up 3lbs;
Verdict: (8) interesting returned to this trip and a contender.
Truth Or Dare 6-8-7 (91) Dr 4
02 Aug Cl 3 Hcap (162 u) 7f sf Good (95) 6/1 1.5l 1/12 off 87
Held up in touch in midfield 5f out, in lead and clear inside final furlong, ran on well, comfortably
Hadn’t won since his 2yho days, but finally returned to the winner’s enclosure in a Cl 3 over C&D here on sf at the start of the month; raised 4lbs for that, but did win a nursery off this mark; on balance though you wouldn’t put the house on him recorded in a double.
Plus: class (F); going (F); distance (W); course (W); trainer (C); recent form run (24 days);
Minus: raised 4lbs; up in class; trainer (14d)
Verdict: (6) hardly the strongest contender on past record.
Mukalal 3-8-4 (93) Dr 9
08 Aug Cl 3 Hcap (162 u) 8f AW Chelm (95) 7/1 2.3l 4/13 off 93
Led and set steady gallop, ducked right over 4f out, ridden well over 1f out, headed just inside final furlong, no extra and outpaced final 100yds, lost 2 places towards finish
Has shown improving form on AW this year and latest career best at Chelmsford when 4th to Qassem was enhanced by the winner’s effort here on Thursday; question of whether he can convert that form to turf, however.
Plus: trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent form run (18 days);
Minus: class (?); going (?); distance; course (?); up in class;
Verdict: (3) turf form a query, of course, but a contender nonetheless.
Johnny Barnes 5-9-3 (101) Dr 2
29 Jul Cl 2 Hcap (934 u) 7f gd/sf Ascot (109) 25/1 3l 4/27 off 101
Held up well in rear in centre, still just about last over 2f out, rapid progress over 1f out, storming run to take 4th last strides, no chance to challenge
Not won since taking a Gr 3 at Deauville in August 2015, but has shown improved form the last twice on softened ground; it could well be that he is very ground dependent, in which case the drying ground at Goodwood no help.
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent form run (28 days);
Minus: course (0/2);
Verdict: long time since he won and maybe going question, so a contender with a query or two.

A single digit draw is generally preferred here, and my quartet are alright on that score. After that though none is without queries. The first to go (from a win point of view) is Truth Or Dare who can hardly be expected to complete the double. After thst though, and given the going query for Johnny Barnes, I’m going with Ultimate Avenue from Mukalal.

York 15.35 Cl 2 Hcap 1774 (110) 14f gd – 20 Run (19 at best)

Last year – 1743 (109) gd 20 ran
Heartbreak City 15/2 6-9-1 (103) Dr 15 by 4l from Shrewd 12/1 6-8-10 (100) Dr 10
Battersea 16/1 5-9-10 (107) Dr 18 was 5.6l 4th
Seamour 14/1 5-9-6 (103) Dr 22 was 5.85l 5th
Top Tug 11/1 5-9-2 (99) Dr 4 was 16.65l 12th
Elidor 20/1 6-9-12 (109) Dr 9 was 43.15l 19th

Flymetothestars 4-9-4 (102) Dr 21
01 Jul Cl 2 Hcap (924 u) 16.5f AW Newcs (108) 11/4 F 0.75l 3/20 off 100
Took keen hold in midfield, headway to press leaders over 2f out, ridden and outpaced over 1f out, ran on inside final furlong
Lightly-raced 4yo who won 2 of 3 starts last season on the AW; won over 16f at Newcastle on his return in May and then made a brave effort to justify favouritism when 3rd to High Power and Natural Scenery (+3) in a career best in the Northumberland Plate there at the start of last month; has been raised 2lbs and meets NS on 3lbs worse terms for his turf debut today, thus strikes me as illogical that he should be half the price, although Prescott has had 2 of his 4 entries placed in the past 11 renewals; is 2/3 at Newcastle, but this is York on turf .
Plus: class (F); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto;
Minus: going (?); course (?); up 2lbs; turf debut;
Verdict: (8) favouritism no doubt reflects trainer’s record. B ut has obvious questions to answer and not my strongest contender.
Scarlet Dragon 4-9-10 (108) Dr 9
04 Aug Gr 3 Stks (567 d) 12f sf Good (113) 9/2 1.75 3/6 off 108
Steadied and dropped in behind after start, took keen hold, held up off the pace in 5th, closed and in touch halfway, switched left and effort over 2f out, chased leading pair over 1f out, kept on under pressure
Improved throughout last season winning 5 of his 11 starts, but didn’t return until finishing 6th to Snoano (-7) in the Wolferton at Royal Ascot; next outing was in the John Smith’s here when despite not getting a smooth run he was beaten less than 3.5l in 10th; tried in a Gr 3 at Goodwood lto and recorded a career best in finishing 3rd to Pets Word and Second Step with Snoano (0) a further 5l back in 4th with another 1.25l back to Lord Yeats; untried beyond 12f, but has won on gd/sf to gd/fm and gets on well with young claimer; however, even with her claim he’ll be toting 9-7 and the record for those carrying 9-5 or more is 0/9/60.
Plus: class (W); going (W); course (W); trainer (14d); recent form run (22 days);
Minus: distance (?); drop in class;
Verdict: (13) could still be improving and a possible contender if staying the trip.
Dubka 4-9-4 (102) Dr 15
03 Aug Gr 3 Fill Stks (567 u) 14f sf Good (110) 13/2 0.25l 2/10 off 102
Tracked leaders, not clear run over 2f out, soon switched left and forced way out to chase leader, ridden to lead over 1f out, hard pressed entering final furlong, kept on gamely under pressure, headed and no extra last strides
Unraced as 2yo, but after Salisbury debut improved to win his next 4 starts up to Cl 2; has not enjoyed further success at top level although has run well on occasions as when putting in a career best at Goodwood lto when she finished 1l ahead of Natural Scenery (0) in 4th; after allowances the pair will meet on the same terms today; interesting returning to handicap company.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (F); trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent form run (23 days); down in class;
Minus: course (?);
Verdict: (12) interesting returned to handicaps and a contender.
Top Tug 6-9-7 (105) Dr 2
23 Jun Cl 2 Hcap (498 u) 12f gd/fm Ascot (105) 8/1 3.5l 4/19 off 105
Held up in midfield on outer, effort entering final 2f, headway under pressure over 1f out, stayed on well inside final furlong, never threatening winner
Runs off a 5lbs higher mark than when 12th in last year’s renewal, but has put in some decent placed efforts since; was runner-up on his return to the flat from hurdling at Newmarket in May, won over today’s distance at Goodwood later in the month and then put up a career best to finish 4th in the Duke of Edinburgh at Royal Ascot lto, a nk back of Star Storm (-5); could well reverse that running on 4lbs better terms; meanwhile, while there have been only 3 winners aged over 5yo in the past 30 years, 2 came in the last 2 years and the other was in 2011!
Plus: class (W); going (F); distance (W); course (F); trainer (14d); form run lto;
Minus:
Verdict: (11) age and weight are a couple of negatives, plus perhaps the low draw too, so not the strongest contender.
Magic Circle 5-9-3 (101) Dr 5
23 Aug Cl 2 Hcap (436 d) 16.5f gd/sf York (105) 7/2 F 1l 1/14 off 97
Tracked leaders, headway over 2f out, challenged over 1f out, ridden to lead just inside final furlong, kept on well
Likes the course as was recording his second win here when recording a career best to score over 16.5f on Wednesday; carries a 4lbs penalty for that and they don’t do that well (1/4/22), plus is dropping back in trip again; age and weight look to be positives though, but again a single digit draw.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent form run (3 days);
Minus: 4lbs penalty;
Verdict: (14) a matter of balancing conflicting factors here, but fit and in form so a contender.
Natural Scenery 4-9-7 (105) Dr 6
03 Aug Gr 3 Fill Stks (567 u) 14f sf Good (110) 9/1 1.25l 4/10 off 105
Held up in touch in midfield, closed to chase leaders entering final 2f, ridden to challenge over 1f out, kept on under pressure until no extra well inside final furlong, just outpaced towards finish
More often seen on the AW than turf, but followed up her career best in the Northumberland Plate with a solid effort at Goodwood where she was only 1l back of Dubka (0); jockey booking means the pair meet on the same terms, but not ignored providing low draw not a disadvantage.
Plus: class (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent form run (23 days);
Minus: going (?); course (?);
Verdict: (9) not entirely ignored, but hard to see her reversing Goodwood running with Dubka and not the strongest contender.

I’ve got a feeling that the past trends are not going to be a lot of use here, especially those in regard to weight and OR. Even so, I can’t see Soldier In Action being in the action, although I said that at Goodwood three weeks ago! I’m not favouring Ivan Grozny either, feeling he may have missed his chance when a N/R last year. Others that didn’t make the list include Star Storm, Nakeeta and Wild Hacked. Hacking at the shortlist, meanwhile, I can’t support Flymetothestars making his turf debut. He may win, but not for me. Top Tug goes too, as I think he’s had his chance and doubt he’s improved that much from last year. I could make a case for each of my other four though and it’s a matter of getting them in the right order! Sticking my neck out then I’m going for Dubka from Scarlet Dragon with Natural Scenery and Magic Circle fighting it out for the minor places.

York 16.40 Cl 2 Hcap 436 (105) 10.5f gd – 20 Run

Last year – 374 (104) gd 16 ran
Scarlet Dragon 11/2 F 3-8-4 (92) Dr 2 by 2.75l from Dark Red 15/2 4-9-1 (95) Dr 12
Snoano 15/2 4-9-1 (95) Dr 16 was 9l 10th
Awake My Soul 16/1 7-9-2 (96) Dr 18 was 14.3l Last of 11

Khairat 4-9-10 (105) Dr 13
Doesn’t want the ground too fast and career best lto when 3rd at Goodwood to Fabricate and Dark Red (-11) who was disqualified and placed 2nd, with UAE Prince (-6) 1.25l back in 4th; is 2lbs better off with Dark Red and 2lbs worse off with UAE Prince today
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent form run (25 days);
Minus: course (?); up 2lbs;
Verdict: could well be more to come and a definite contender.
UAE Prince 4-9-2 (97) Dr 1
Was 4th in the John Smith’s here on his first race back after being gelded and then occupied same place at Goodwood where he’s tied in with Dark Red and Khairat; like Khairut though is lightly raced and could well have more to come.
Plus: class (F); going (F); distance (W); course (F); trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent form run (25 days);
Minus:
Verdict: meets Khairat on 2lbs better terms and has to be seen as a contender.
Weekend Offender 4-9-3 (98) Dr 8
Has recorded successive career bests up to this distance at Ayr the last twice and could well be more to come at this trip; did win a Cl 2 under similar conditions here last year as a 3yo.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent form run (12 days);
Minus: up 6lbs; up in class;
Verdict: unexposed at this trip and a contender.

Quick look suggests that these three have the best chance and I’m going for Weekend Offender to perhaps pull a surprise and prove too good for Khairat and UAE Prince.

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