Saturday 2nd September

Any comments on today's racing. Please don't just put in selections ... please add some reason why you think a runner will win
Devasteve
Posts: 546
Joined: Fri Jan 16, 2015 8:29 am

Saturday 2nd September

Postby Devasteve » Sat Sep 02, 2017 12:09 pm

Let's hope September is better than the disaster that was August. However, with a couple at Chester and a tricky one at Sandown today that's by no means a gimme!

Chester 14.10 Listed Hcap 210 (102) 13.5f gd – 12 Run (11 at best)
3yo = 8lbs wfa allowance

Last year – 210 (108) gd 11 ran
Muntahaa 15/8 F 3-9-0 (108) Dr 5 by 0.05l from Duretto 6/1 4-8-13 (96) Dr 6

Shraaoh 4-9-2 (93) Dr 10
05 Aug Cl 2 Hcap (623 s) 14f sf Good (106) 8/1 18l L/13 off 93
Tracked leader, challenged 3f out, soon ridden, weakened well over 1f out
08 Jul Cl 2 Hcap (623 u) 12f gd/fm Hayd (104) 9/2 F 3.5l 3/16 off 93
Mid-division, headway on inner 4f out, ridden 2f out, soon 3rd and every chance, stayed on final furlong
Inclined to ignore Goodwood running in first-time cheek-pieces, as he had shown a similar dislike for sf ground in the King George V at Ascot last year; had previously improved on season opener to record close to his best when 3rd to Dylan Mouth and Soldier In Action in the Old Newton Cup; was a respectable 5th in last year’s Melrose at York over this trip; however, only win to date in a 10f mdn on the AW at Newcastle.
Plus: going (F); distance (F); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run in recent past (56 days);
Minus: class (?); course (?); no form run lto; up in class;
Verdict: (5) has shown ability on more than one occasion, but not the strongest contender perhaps.
Who Dares Wins 5-9-2 (93) Dr 8
20 Jun Cl 2 Hcap (498 d) 20f gd/fm Ascot (100) 5/1 7.75l 3/18 off 93
Raced keenly, chased leaders until went 2nd 12f out, switched left to lead and jostling with rival 4f out, hard pressed and driven over 2f out, hung left over 1f out, soon headed and outpaced by winner, 3rd and kept on same pace final furlong
Dual purpose campaigner who finished 3rd in the Coral Cup at Cheltenham in March and then was perhaps a little unlucky when finishing 4/17 to Montaly in the Cup here at the May meeting; has since finished a creditable 3/18 in the Ascot Stks recording a career best; seems to go well after a break and quite variable in regard to distance having won over 12.5f here last summer; no surprise were he to go well.
Plus: going (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run in recent past (74 days)
Minus: class (?); up in class;
Verdict: (11) versatile sort who rarely runs a bad race and a possible contender
My Reward 5-9-5 (96) Dr 2
23 Aug Cl2 Hcap (436 d) 16.5f gd/sf York (105) 11/1 1l 2/14 off 95
Led, pushed along 3f out, ridden over 2f out, joined and driven over 1f out, headed just inside final furlong, kept on
Improved form this year as after winning over 16f at Ripon in April, finished a close 5/20 in the Northumberland Plate before finishing 4/13 to Soldier In Action at Goodwood when Shraaoh (-1) was last; lost no credit on latest effort when runner-up to a well-handicapped sort at York.
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (F); trainer (C); recent form run (10 days);
Minus: course (?); up in class; up 1lb;
Verdict: (9) much improved for this year, but not sure about the drop back in trip; nevertheless, a contender.
Cape Coast 3-8-5 (90) Dr 11
15 Jul Cl 2 3yo-Hcap (311) 12f gd Ascot (93) 11/4 F 0.1l 2/9 off 86
Led, driven for home over 2f out, hung right and left over 1f out and soon joined, narrowly headed 150yds out, battled on well but just held
After a couple of runs to get him used to things, well backed when shedding his mdn tag at Pontefract towards the end of June; followed up when again justifying favouritism over 12f at Ripon the following month; again favourite at Ascot 5 days later and put in a career best, but just denied by Bin Battuta, who subsequently went on to finish runner-up in the Melrose at York; has been raised 4lbs for that, plus steps up in trip as well as takes on older horses for the first time today.
Plus: going (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run in recent past (49 days);
Minus: class (?); distance (?); course (?); up in class; up 4lbs; facing older horses;
Verdict: (6) improving 3yo and while trip a question, a contender.
Graceland 5-9-0 (91) Dr 5
12 Aug Cl 2 Hcap (221 d) 16f gd/sf Ascot (97) 9/2 1l 3/10 off 92
Took keen hold, held up in midfield, progress 2f out, ridden to challenge just over 1f out, no extra last 100yds
Consistent sort who won over 16f at Ascot in on her return in May and has been there or thereabouts in her 4 subsequent starts, the latest being when 3rd in the Shergar Stayers Hcap at Ascot; not entirely convinced that the drop back in trip will be in her favour as she has seemed better over 16f this term; nevertheless, trainer won 2014 renewal.
Plus: going (W); distance (F); trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent form run (21 days); down 1lb;
Minus: class (?); course; up in class;
Verdict: (9) consistent place efforts, although win record not great and thus not the strongest of contenders for the win.

Surprisingly for Chester, only 2 of the last 10 winners have been drawn lower than 6 with the same number coming out of the outside stall. It used to be 4/5yo predominating, but 3yo have won 2 of the past 3 renewals and thus must be considered. Looking at my shortlist the main worry is that most seem to be best at around 16f and thus the drop back in trip is a worry. The exception is bottom weight Cape Coast who is trying this trip for the first time, but has a good Chester pilot on board. However, I think I’ll pass, as I also will on Shraaoh who despite the obvious talent has yet to fully exploit it. The remaining trio, Who Dares Wins, My Reward and Graceland have all won over 16f, and will be dropping in trip from lto, WDW from 20f. However, he has won at Chester in the past and thus I’m going for Who Dares Wins from My Reward with Graceland perhaps holding off Cape Coast for the minor places.

Chester 14.45 Cl 2 Hcap 280 (107) 7.5f gd – 12 Run
3yo = 5lbs wfa allowance

Last year – 280 (101) gd 11 ran
Breakable 11/2 5-8-13 (90) Dr 7 by 1l from Right Touch 4/1 6-9-8 (99) Dr 3
Intransigent 10/1 7-9-8 (99) Dr 5 was 6.85l 5th
Sound Advice 7/1 7-9-10 (101) Dr 8 was 10.6l 9th

Breakable 6-9-0 (97) Dr 2
24 Aug Cl 2 Fil Hcap (436 u) 7f gd/sf York (100) 10/1 1.25l 2/14 off 94
In touch, headway to track leaders 3f out, ridden to chase winner over 1f out, driven and kept on final furlong
Goes well here and set career best when winning last year’s renewal off a 7lbs lower mark; had to work to get the mark back down after that, but won over C&D here again at the start of last month off 91; matched career best at York lto when runner-up to Lincoln Rocks; has been raised 3lbs for that, but back at Chester can’t be ignore from a decent draw.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (C); recent form run (9 days);
Minus: up 3lbs;
Verdict: (13) C&D winner who usually runs well her and a contender to at least make the frame.
Intransigent 8-8-8 (91) Dr 3
22 Aug Cl 3 Hcap (75 d) 7f AW Kemp (91) 14/1 3l 2/11 off 91
Held up in midfield, ridden just over 2f out, progress over 1f out, ran on to take 2nd near finish, no chance with winner
Listed winner over 6f here in his prime and 5th to Breakable (-9) in last year’s renewal off an 8lbs higher mark; moreover, won first race since November 2014 at Kempton in January and back to form there lto off only 1lb higher; runs off the same mark today but as an 8yo is not getting any younger and not sure he’s still competitive at this level.
Plus: class (W+); going (F); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent form run (11 days);
Minus: up in class;
Verdict: (11) not sure he’s up to this sort of competition nowadays and not the strongest contender.
War Glory 4-8-6 (89) Dr 5
12 Aug Cl 2 Hcap (129 d) 7f gd/sf Nwmkt (99) 5/2 Jt F 2.25l 2/7 off 89
Chased leader until led well over 1f out, ridden, edged left and headed inside final furlong, stayed on same pace
Runner-up over C&D here in similar conditions in July last year, so C&D should pose no problem; the only worry is that he’s 0/4/8 on turf as opposed to 2/3/5 on the AW; nevertheless, has shown more since being gelded between seasons; reasonable effort at Newmarket lto when Khamaary (+1) was down in 6th; not overly happy with jockey’s record at Chester (1/18).
Plus: class (F); going (F); distance (W); course (F); trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent form run (21 days);
Minus: winless on turf; jockey course record (1/18)
Verdict: (9) must surely win on turf someday, but this looks tougher than last start and not the strongest contender.
Sharp Defence 3-8-6 (94) Dr 7
18 Aug Hcap (160 d) 6f AW Dundalk (101) 7/1 0.5l 2/13 off 94
Held up towards rear, switched right 2f out and headway near side, ran on well under pressure into 2nd close home, nearest finish
Won 7f mdn at Salisbury in April, but had a troubled run over C&D here in a 3yo-hcap in May; won hcap when dropped to Cl 4 over 6f at Hamilton in early July; never in the hunt in the Scottish Stewards Cup there later in the month though; better lto when setting a career best over 6f on the AW at Dundalk, though not sure what the value of that form is.
Plus: distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent form run (15 days);
Minus: class; going; course; up in trip; jockey course record (2/35);
Verdict: (4) yet to show himself capable of winning a hcap at this level and not the strongest contender.

They win at all sorts of ages, but I think I’ll pass on the 8yos Gabrial, Sound Advice, and the one from my shortlist, Intransigent. I’m also none too keen on the chances of Sharp Defence, so I’ll go for Breakable to complete her double from War Glory.

Sandown 15.35 Cl 2 Hcap 311 (103) 10f gd – 13 Run
3yo = 6lbs wfa allowance

Last year – 311 (113) gd/sf 12 ran
Baydar 9/4 F 3-7-12 (95) Dr 1 by 0.05l from Goodwood Mirage 12/1 6-7-13 (88)
Oasis Fantasy 7/1 5-9-5 (105) Dr 2 was 1.65l 5th

Euginio 3-9-3 (102) Dr 6
12 Aug Gr 3 Stks (357 u) 10.5f gd/sf Hayd (114) 14/1 5.85l 4/11 off 102
Mid-division, pushed along 3f out, not much room 2f out, ridden and headway over 1f out, ran on to take 4th inside final furlong
7 Jul Cl 2 Hcap (187 u) 10f gd/fm Sand (100) 5/4 F 0.1l 1/6 off 100
Broke well but took keen hold and held up in last pair, pushed along over 2f out, progress on outer to lead 1f out, edged right after and hard pressed, cajoled along and nudged runner-up near finish, held on
A Cl 5 mdn at Wolverhampton was his only success in 4 starts as a 2yo, but has improved as a 3yo, following a promising April return at Newmarket by putting in a career best when winning over C&D here in early July and then finishing 4/11 in a Gr 3 Stks at Haydock lto; interesting dropped back to hcaps off the same mark.
Plus: class (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run in recent past (57 days); down in class;
Minus: going;
Verdict: (13) proven over C&D and ground should be no problem and a contender off only 2lbs more than in July.
Across Dubai 3-8-10 (95) Dr 5
05 Aug Gr 3 3yo-Stks 567 12f sf Good (114) 9/1 7.5l L/5 off 95
Held up in rear, effort over 2f out, 4th and no impression 1f out, weakened inside final furlong
08 Jul Cl 3 3yo-Hcap (129 u) 10.5f gd/fm Hayd (87) 15/8 F 1l 1/5 off 85
Settled in 4th, closed on leaders 2f out, went 2nd going easily entering final furlong, shaken up and quickened to lead 100yds out, comfortably
Won a 7f at Lingfield last October on only start as 2yo and after promising return at Yarmouth in May, took a 3yo-hcap over 10.5f at Haydock in early July; likely found the combination of rise in both distance and class beyond him at Goodwood lto and should be more at home back in hcap company.
Plus: distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run in recent past (56 days); down in class; down in distance;
Minus: class (?); going (?); course (?);
Verdict: (11) improving 3yo, but has to prove ability at this level and not the strongest contender perhaps.
Silver Ghost 4-9-0 (93) Dr 2
27 Jul Cl 4 Hcap (58 u) 10f gd/sf Sand (87) 3/1 3l 1/8 off 83
Tracked leader, led well over 2f out, clear over 1f out, ridden and stayed on strongly final furlong, quite impressive
Marked improvement since joining this stable and has won last 3 in rising class, including over C&D here lto; handicapper has responded with a 10lbs rise, plus is up 2 classes today.
Plus: going (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run in recent past (37 days);
Minus: class (?); up 10lbs; up 2 classes;
Verdict: (9) another improving sort, but will need a bunch to go close in this class and not the strongest contender.
Shabbah 4-8-11 (90) Dr 3
C&D winner here under Moore in June last year to complete a hat-trick, but failed to add to his tally in 3 subsequent starts; just the one outing this year when possibly needed the run at Yarmouth last Sunday and makes a quick return with Moore in the saddle today.
Plus: class (F) going (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d) trainer (C); recent outing (6)
Minus: 448 days since form run;
Verdict: (9) may show improvement today, but yet to win at this level and not a strong contender.
Thundering Blue 4-8-8 (87) Dr 8
12 Aug Cl 2 Hcap (129 u) 10f gd/sf Nwmkt (98) 11/2 1l 1/7 off 83
Held up, headway and switched left over 1f out, ridden to lead inside final furlong, soon hung left, swerved right towards finish, ran on, comfortably
Gelded between seasons and has shown marked improvement back on turf winning his last 2 starts; latest win at Newmarket franked by the 4th, Eddystone Rock going on to win a decent York hcap; has only been raised 4lbs for that and looks a player aiming for his hat-trick.
Plus: class (W); distance (W); trainer (C); recent form run (21 days);
Minus: going (?); course (?); up 4lbs;
Verdict: (10) yet another improver who can’t be discounted and a contender.

Looks to be a highly competitive race and there have been some longer priced winners of late. I hope I’ve got the winner in my shortlist somewhere. The first two to drop from that are Stoute’s Shabbah and Silver Ghost who is going a long way up in class. Of the three remaining I’ve got to go with Euginio from Across Dubai and Thundering Blue.

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