Saturday 16th September

Any comments on today's racing. Please don't just put in selections ... please add some reason why you think a runner will win
Devasteve
Posts: 546
Joined: Fri Jan 16, 2015 8:29 am

Saturday 16th September

Postby Devasteve » Sat Sep 16, 2017 10:24 am

An expected failure last week, and with such a big field today hopes aren't that much higher despite the many hours spent!

Doncaster 13.50 Cl 2 Hcap 374 (107) 5.5f gd/sf – 22 Run
3yo = 2lbs wfa allowance

Last year – 374 (105) gd 20 ran
Captain Colby 6/1 Jt F 4-9-0 (95) Dr 12 by 1.5l from Humidor 20/1 9-9-3 (98) Dr 1
Harry Hurricane 10/1 4-9-0 (95) Dr 9 was 2l 3rd
Pipers Note 20/1 6-9-4 (99) Dr 10 was 3.7l 9th
Lexington Abbey 10/1 5-8-13 (94) Dr 2 was 3.8l 10th
Move In Time 33/1 8-9-7 (102) Dr 3 was 9.67l 19th

Stake Acclaim 5-9-4 (101) Dr 10
21 Aug Cl 2 Hcap (467 u) 6f gd/sf Wind (101) 8/1 1.1l 3/15 off 101
Raced alone against near side rail and right on terms with leaders, ridden over 1f out, stayed on
12 Aug Cl 2 Hcap (221 d) 5f gd/sf Ascot (105) 4/1 Jt F 0.25l 1/10 off 97
Held up and last main group, switched to outer and good progress just over 1f out, shaken up and ran on well to lead last strides
Useful sprinter on gd or gd/sf, has won over both 5f and 6f; latest success came in the Shergar Dash at Ascot when he had Lexington Abbey (0) and Pipers Note (+4) 1.25l and 2.75l behind him, respectively; raised 4lbs for that and 9 days later put in yet another career best when 3/15 to Ice Age (-13) over 6f at Windsor with Spring Loaded (-9) a couple of noses back in 5th; runs off the same mark today, has won off both gd and gd/sf and won a mdn over 6f here as a 2yo.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); recent form run (26 days);
Minus:
Verdict: (46) has a lot of plus points with only form of trainer and jockey, both current and at Doncaster a worry; nevertheless a contender.
Merlin 3-8-10 (95) Dr 1
19 Aug Cl 2 3yo-Hcap (280) 6f sf Nwmk (105) 11/2 1.55l 3/9 off 95
Raced near side, led group and chased overall leaders until led overall over 3f out, ridden over 1f out, headed and no extra 100yds out, outpaced towards finish, 3rd of 5 in group
Improving 3yo who has won 3 of his 8 starts to date over 6f and 7f on ground from gd to sf; was raised 9lbs for an all the way victory over 6f at Haydock in July, but put in another career best on sf at Newmarket lto; questions to answer though include taking on older horses in a hcap for the first time, size of field, and shortest trip of his career to date, plus 3yos have had a poor record in recent renewals, and only 2 of the last 14 winners have been drawn lower than stall 9.
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); recent form run (28 days);
Minus: course (?); field size; low draw;
Verdict: (42) despite the plus points, on balance not the strongest contender.
A Momentofmadness 4-8-12 (95) Dr 20
23 Aug Cl 2 Hcap (436 u) 5.5f gd/sf York (105) 7/1 1.75l 4/16 off 95
Blind removed late, soon tracking leaders, headway 2f out, ridden over 1f out, driven and kept on same pace final furlong
Latest effort at York not only a career best but also its best over further than 5f; runs off the same mark today and conditions similar, but this looks a tougher task; nevertheless, has a positive draw.
Plus: class (W); going (F); distance (F); trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent form run (24 days);
Minus: course;
Verdict: (37) just a question about whether he’ll get the trip in this company, but a contender nonetheless.
Vibrant Chords 4-9-0 (97) Dr 8
19 Aug Cl 3 Hcap (78 d) 5f gd Donc (95) 4/1 F 1l 2/13 off 95
Tracked leaders stands' side, headway and close up 2f out, ridden to dispute lead over 1f out, every chance entering final furlong, soon driven and kept on
Won mdn over 6f as a 2yo, but didn’t win again until scoring over 5f at Goodwood on May Day; followed up by finishing runner-up over 6f there in a Cl 2 later in the month; off then till early August when needing the race in a Cl 2 at Goodwood; built on that, however, to finish runner-up to Desert Law over 5f in a Cl 3 here later in the month; has been raised 2lbs for that and rises in class and trip, but could well have come on for the run; however, has yet to win at this level or on gd/sf, plus has a borderline draw.
Plus: class (F); going (F); distance (W); course (F); trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent form run (28 days);
Minus: up in class; up 2lbs;
Verdict: (36) yet to prove he can win at this level, or in this ground, so a contender with a question or two.
Evergate 3-8-7 (92) Dr 4
26 Aug Cl 2 3yo-Hcap (283) 5f gd York (100) 10/1 1.25l 3/19 off 91
In touch towards far side, headway 2f out, ridden to challenge inside final furlong, soon every chance, driven and not quicken last 50yds
Won over 6f as a 2yo when with Palmer, but has largely run over 5f since moving to the Cowell yard; won a Cl 2 on gd/sf at Windsor at the end of May; however, was then someway behind Pipers Note (+14) over 6f on fast ground here and had a break; matched Windsor level on comeback run at York last month when just ahead of Justanotherbottle (+8); however, meets him on 7lbs worse terms today and has a low draw.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent form run (28 days); recent form run (21 days);
Minus: course; up 1lb;
Verdict: (36) improved for change of yard, but being a 3yo, low drawn and considerably worse off with J, suggests he’s an unlikely contender.
Justanotherbottle 3-8-8 (93) Dr 18
26 Aug Cl 2 3yo-Hcap (283) 5f gd York (100) 14/1 1.3l 4/19 off 92
Raced towards far side, close up, ridden and slight lead over 1f out, driven inside final furlong, headed and no extra last 75yds
C&D winner here in early July and has continued to improve since then and recorded a career best when just behind Evergate at York last month; could well reverse that running on today’s terms, but as a 3yo faces a tough task to prove himself at this level here.
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); recent form run (28 days);
Minus: up 1lb;
Verdict: (32) this not normally the race for front-runners (or 3yos) and not the strongest contender.
Lexington Abbey 6-9-0 (97) Dr 15
12 Aug Cl 2 Hcap (221 d) 5f gd/sf Ascot (105) 4/1 jt F 1.25l 3/10 off 97
Chased leaders on outer, on terms over 1f out, stayed on same pace final furlong
Runs off a 3lbs higher mark than when midfield in last year’s renewal, but has been consistent of late without finding the winner’s enclosure; matched career best on turf when 3rd to Stake Acclaim (0) at Ascot last month and is 4lbs better off at today’s weights, plus has the assistance of Ryan Moore in the saddle.
Plus: class (F); going (F); distance (W); course (F); trainer (14d); recent form run (26 days);
Minus: no win in last 10 starts;
Verdict: (30) has threatened to win one of these on more than one occasion and a possible contender today.

Another of these cavalry charges and just to make it even more tricky it’s an in-between distance. Past trends suggest we look for 4/5yo carrying between 8-11 and 9-7 that ran in at least a Cl 3 within the past 42 days at Doncaster, Goodwood, Haydock, Ripon, Sandown or York. It also helps to have won over both 5f and 6f, while 12 of the last 14 winners came out of stall 9 or higher. Looking at my shortlist, both Merlin and Evergate are low drawn 3yos, plus both are front runners, so that’s too many negatives to forgive and out they go. Distance is a worry for A Momentofmadness, while Justanotherbottle is a 3yo and despite being a C&D winner has yet to win at this level. That leaves three and I’m going for Stake Acclaim from Lexington Abbey and Vibrant Chords.

Doncaster 16.45 Cl 2 Hcap 156 (105) 8f gd/sf – 10 Run
3yo = 4lbs wfa allowance

Last year – 156 (99) gd 8 ran
Can’t Change It 7/1 5-9-4 (94) Dr 6 by 0.75l from Banksea 2/1 F 3-9-4 (99) Dr 7

Battered 3-8-13 (98) Dr 5
25 Aug Cl 2 3yo-Hcap (436 u) 8f gd York (102) 8/1 2.25l 2/15 off 96
Held up in rear, headway on wide outside over 2f out, ridden to chase leaders over 1f out, driven and hung left inside final furlong, kept on
Won a fast ground mdn at Yarmouth last September on first start after being gelded; has scored twice more this term over 7f on sf at York on both occasions, the latest in first-time blinkers in early August; since then has finished a good 2nd over 8f there, sticking to his task well although held; has been raised 2lbs for that and takes on older horses today, but certainly has the ability to go close.
Plus: class (W); distance (F); trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent form run (22 days);
Minus: going; course (?);
Verdict: (46) yet to win at this distance, but looks a likely contender.
Kryptos 3-8-10 (95) Dr 7
09 Sept Cl 3 3yo-Hcap (97 u) 8f sf Thirsk (87) 5/2 5l 1/5 off 87
Tracked leader, headway over 2f out, led well over 1f out, soon ridden clear, stayed on strongly
Joined current yard in June from Dermot Weld and has won 2 of his 4 starts since (both under today’s claimer) the latest being a Cl 3 at Thirsk last Saturday; won that in some style and has been raised 8lbs as a result; although there could well be more to come on only his 7th start.
Plus: distance; trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent form run (7 days);
Minus: class (?); going (?); course (?); up 8lbs; up in class;
Verdict: (40) rapidly improving sort and could well be more to come, a contender.
Sinfonietta 5-8-10 (91) Dr 3
27 Aug Ire Hcap (590 u) 8f yld Curragh (99) 10/1 3.75l 3/27 off 90
Mid-division, took closer order 3f out and soon ridden, kept on well under pressure to go 3rd close home but held by front pair
Sole win came in April last year on first start since being gelded at the end of his 3yo season; that was over 8.5f on hv at Nottingham and thereby lies the rub as he’s restricted from running on fast ground; can run well on occasions though when getting his ground, as when runner-up in the Spring Mile here off 90 and when 3rd off the same mark in the Irish Cambridgeshire last month; has a 5lb-claimer up in the hopes of building on that, but drying ground unlikely to help.
Plus: class (F); going (F); distance (W); course (F); trainer (14d); recent form run (20 days);
Minus: up 1lb; drying ground (?);
Verdict: (35) will win one day again when the ground is right, but not sure today’s the day and not a strong contender.

This has got danger written all over it as form horses are hard to find outside of this trio, notwithstanding a couple of efforts from Big Baz of late. However, he’s a 7yo whose better days seem behind him. Much the same could be said of 2015 winner Bronze Angel who hasn’t had a form run since, or any run since October last year. Of course, there’s always a risk in expecting 3yos to take the step up against their elders, but I have to think that Battered from Kryptos seems the most likely result.

martinkil
Posts: 3417
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Re: Saturday 16th September

Postby martinkil » Tue Sep 19, 2017 5:50 pm

A forecast :) .... in the wrong order :( - hit the woodwork again - maybe next week it will go in off the post!

Devasteve
Posts: 546
Joined: Fri Jan 16, 2015 8:29 am

Re: Saturday 16th September

Postby Devasteve » Sat Sep 23, 2017 10:35 am

Ain't it always the way Martin. Never mind, change is in the air!


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