Saturday 23rd September

Any comments on today's racing. Please don't just put in selections ... please add some reason why you think a runner will win
Devasteve
Posts: 546
Joined: Fri Jan 16, 2015 8:29 am

Saturday 23rd September

Postby Devasteve » Sat Sep 23, 2017 10:41 am

After last week's frustrations, a somewhat different change of approach as I’ve been playing with trying to put my analysis points into a numerical format. It started off well enough with winning races on Monday through Thursday (went 2/2 as it was a holiday), and even yesterday had the first 3 home (just that the winner was my reserve selection!) Those were all small fields though and the crunch comes today when we have a couple of big field races to look at. So let’s just suck it and see I guess! My suggestion would be to make a book on the first two selections with the other a reserve in the case of N/R. Of course, the more adventurous may wish to perm all three for a CSF!

Newmarket 15.10 Cl 2 Hcap 311 (102) 18f gd/sf – 21 Run
3yo = 11lbs wfa allowance

Last year – 311 (102) gd 17 run
Penglai Pavilion 11/2 6-9-1 (93) Dr 4 by 3l from The Cashel Man 11/2 4-8-11 (89) Dr 9
Shrewd 16/1 6-9-3 (102) Dr 11 was 7.75l 3rd
Oceane 5/2 F 4-9-0 (92) Dr 7 was 21l 9th

Arthur McBride 8-8-7 (86) Dr 2
05 Sep Cl 2 Hcap (162 u) 16f sf Good (92) 3/1 2.5l 1/6 off 83
Made all, drifted right under pressure when challenged just over 1f out, stayed on strongly to assert final 120yds, won going away
Likes to be prominent and has been in good form of late culminating in producing a career best when making all over 16f at Goodwood at the start of the month; has been raised 3lbs for that and this is much stiffer opposition, bet nevertheless an uncomplicated sort.
Plus: class (W); going (F); distance (W); trainer (C); recent form run (18 days)
Minus: course (?); up 3lbs;
Verdict: (44) good recent form and although this tougher, a contender.
Time To Study 3-8-12 (102) Dr 3
15 Sep Cl 2 Hcap (259 d) 14.5f gd/sf Donc (108) 11/8 F 0.1l 1/7 off 98
Tracked leader, headway to take slight lead 3f out, soon joined and ridden, driven entering final furlong, rider dropped rein last 50yds, held on gamely towards finish
Won the Edinburgh Cup in June and by no means disgraced when 5th in the Queen’s Vase at Royal Ascot; off then until early this month when stayed on well in the Haydock mud to finish a close 3rd in a valuable 3yo-hcap; back in the winner’s enclosure less than a week later when putting in a career best to win at Doncaster last week; Shrewd (+1) was 5l 3rd, but is only 2lbs better off today; has been raised 4lbs for that, but more improvement likely if staying the trip.
Plus: class (W); going (W); trainer (C); recent form run (8 days);
Minus: distance (?); course (?); up 4lbs;
Verdict: (41) improving 3yo and a contender if staying the trip.
Taws 6-8-10 (89) Dr 10
28 Aug Cl 3 Hcap (125 u) 16f gd Chep (86) 2/1 F 0.1l 1/10 off 86
Chased leaders, pushed along in 6th halfway, headway 3f out, soon ridden, chased leader over 1f out, strong challenge inside final furlong, led final stride, game
Joined from the Pipe yard in the summer and besides a hurdles win has won her last 2 starts over 16f at Chepstow; just got the better of Medburn Cutler (-5) to justify favouritism; has been raised 3lbs for that and meets MC on 5lbs worse terms today; nevertheless, doesn’t appear to lack stamina.
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); recent form run (26 days);
Minus: course (?); up 3lbs;
Verdict: (41) another in-form stayer and a contender.

Not a race I normally look at and while Alan King has a trio of runners, of which Coeur De Lion may proved better than Who Dares Wins, it’s another NH trainer that catches my eye as Twiston-Davies has a rare flat entry in Arthur McBride. The 3yo Time To Study looks a danger, while the mare Taws seems to stay forever. Thus I’m going for Arthur McBride from Time To Study with the Taws the replacement for a N/R.

Newbury 15.25 Cl 2 Hcap 467 (104) 10f gd – 20 Run
3yo = 5lbs wfa allowance

Last year – 467 (104) gd/sf 18 ran
Baydar 6/1 Jt F 3-8-12 (99) Dr 2 by 0.5l from Scarlet Dragon 10/1 3-8-10 (99) Dr 14

Fidaawy 4-9-9 (103) Dr 14
25 Aug Cl 2 Hcap (436 u) 12f gd York (104) 11/1 0.5l 1/14 off 98
Tracked leader, smooth headway to lead over 2f out, joined and ridden over 1f out, driven and kept on well final furlong
Still improving and made a winning return over today’s distance at Doncaster in April and after a couple of lesser efforts returned to winning form with a career best over 12f at York last month when having Erik The Red (+2) and Al Neksh (-7), 3.25l and 5l back in 3rd and 4th, respectively; carries a 5lbs penalty for that, but could well confirm that running.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent form run (29 days);
Minus: course (?); 5lbs penalty; drop in trip;
Verdict: (48) conditions suit and a contender if handling the drop back in trip.
Silver Ghost 4-8-13 (93) Dr 12
02 Sep Cl 2 Hcap (311 u) 10f gd Sand (103) 13/2 2.05l 4/13 off 93
Tracked leader, led over 2f out and driven for home, edged left 1f out, headed and no extra last 100yds
Was in fine form over the summer running up a hat-trick of wins in lower class on gd/sf to gd/fm; by no means disgraced at Sandown lto when coming back from a month’s break and upped to this class for the first time, faring best of those up with the pace in setting a career best to finish 4th to Thundering Blue with Euginio (+3) 1l back in 5th; the latter has since come out to win a tactical affair at Doncaster last week, but with a 5lbs penalty will find it hard to reverse form with SG.
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent form run (21 days);
Minus: course;
Verdict: (44) looks to be an improving sort and a contender in conditions that should suit.
Brorocco 4-8-9 (89) Dr 13
26 Aug Cl 2 Hcap (436 u) 10.5f gd York (105) 12/1 2.55l 4/20 off 89
Dwelt and in rear, headway over 2f out, ridden well over 1f out, soon not much room, stayed on well final furlong
Won over today’s distance at Epsom in April and has run well in subsequent starts with the exception of the Old Newton Cup, which he perhaps found beyond him; with his style of running, however, often suffers interference at crucial junctures as happened at York lto when likely would have been closer to Eddystone Rock (+8) with a clear run; meets the winner on 5lbs better terms today and could well reverse that form if gaining a clear passage.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent form run (28 days);
Minus: course (?)
Verdict: (44) only 4lbs above his Epsom mark and looks a possible contender here.

Plenty of contenders here, although past stats suggest you can usually forget all but 3yo and 4yos, or those carrying more than 9-2. Thus for one reason or another I’ve drawn a line through Banksea, Eddystone Rock and Erik The Red among others. Of the trio that come out best on my ratings I’m a little worried about the weight for Fidaawy, plus him dropping back from 12f, while I wonder if the field size might go against Brorocco. Thus the one with the least negatives would seem to be Silver Ghost. Still, sticking to the ratings I’m going for Fidaawy from Silver Ghost with Brorocco the replacement in case of a non-runner.

Catterick 16.45 Cl 2 Hcap 125 (92) 12f gd/sf – 8 Run
3yo = 7lbs wfa allowance

Last year – 125 (89) gd 7 ran
Card High 14/1 6-8-8 (93) Dr 5 by 0.5l from I Am Not Here 4/1 5-8-11 (91) Dr 7
Wotabreeze 3/1 3-8-7 (80) Dr 3 was 9.25l 5th

Je Suis Charlie 3-8-8 (83) Dr 6
Plus: going (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent form run (24 days);
Minus: class (?); up 6lbs;
Verdict: (50) finally back in the winner’s enclosure over C&D lto and a contender again today.
Airton 4-8-12 (80) Dr 8
Plus: going (F); distance (W); trainer (C); recent form run (34 days);
Minus: class (?); course (?); up 1lb; up in class;
Verdict: (36) winner on the AW at Newcastle in July and was back to that form at Pontefract lto; a contender.
Wotabreeze 4-8-0 (68) Dr 2
Plus: going (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent form run (11 days);
Minus: class; up 3lbs; up 4 classes;
Verdict: (34) 12lbs lower than when down the field in last year’s renewal and recent C&D winner in first-time cheek-pieces; a contender perhaps.

A lower-class race masquerading as Cl 2 and Fahey’s Monaco Rose dropping back in trip is another that might have possibilities. However, determined to stick with the ratings I’m going with Je Suis Charlie from Airton with Wotabreeze as the reserve.

martinkil
Posts: 3417
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Re: Saturday 23rd September

Postby martinkil » Tue Sep 26, 2017 10:18 am

The combi CSF would have paid off handsomely in the second one, only missing out on a combi trio by a neck!


Return to “Race Discussion”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 12 guests