Saturday 30th September

Any comments on today's racing. Please don't just put in selections ... please add some reason why you think a runner will win
Devasteve
Posts: 546
Joined: Fri Jan 16, 2015 8:29 am

Saturday 30th September

Postby Devasteve » Sat Sep 30, 2017 10:54 am

Despite the success of the combi last week, winners have become an endangered species since and I fear major alterations will be needed - it was actually done to try and save time, but not at the expense of winners! We shall have to see.

Newmarket 15.35 Cl 2 Hcap 996 (110) 9f gd/sf – 35 Run
3yo = 5lbs wfa allowance

Last year – 996 (112) gd/fm 31 ran
Spark Plug 12/1 5-9-4 (104) Dr 28 by 2.25l from Carry On Deryck 20/1 4-9-5 (105) Dr 35
Very Talented 11/1 3-8-7 (98) Dr 8 was 3.75l 3rd
Gm Hopkins 12/1 5-9-12 (112) Dr 31 was 8.17l 12th
Examiner 20/1 5-8-10 (96) Dr 18 was 25.67l 25th
Master The World 12/1 5-9-8 (108) Dr 1 was 56l 30th

Thundering Blue 4-8-7 (93) Dr 20
02 Sep Cl 2 Hcap (311 u) 10f gd Sand (103) 11/2 1.5l 1/13 off 87
Held up in last, good progress on wide outside from 2f out, stormed into the lead 100yds out, jinked left soon after but drew clear
Gelded between seasons and has been in improving form since the summer winning his last 3 starts, the latest when setting another career best over 10f at Sandown at the start of the month; has been raised 6lbs for that, but could well make light of the impost; has not won at less than 10f, but in this race that may not be a drawback.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent form run (28 days);
Minus: up 6lbs;
Verdict: (52) in good form and has to be considered a contender despite his rising mark.
Brorocco 4-8-7 (93) Dr 33
23 Sep Cl 2 Hcap (467 u) 10f gd Newb (108) 8/1 1l 1/19 off 89
Travelled well, mid-division, smooth headway from 2f out, led entering final furlong, drifted left, stayed on well, comfortably
Hasn’t won as many as he might, but racing style means he often encounters traffic; everything dropped just right at Newbury last week though when he showed what he can bring to the party; carries a 4lbs penalty, but that 2lbs below his future mark; not entirely sure that the softening ground plays to his strengths though as all his form has been on good or faster.
Plus: class (W); distance (W); course (F); trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent form run (7 days);
Minus: going (?); 4lbs penalty;
Verdict: (48) another in good form and well in on the handicapper’s estimation, though may have a question or two to answer; nevertheless, a contender.
Big Country 4-9-0 (100) Dr 17
15 Jul Cl 2 Hcap (1245 u) 10.5f gd York (109) 7/1 0.75l 2/20 off 99
In touch, headway over 2f out, chased leaders over 1f out, ridden entering final furlong, stayed on well towards finish
Has shown marked improvement since joining his current yard in February winning 3 of his 6 starts since; reserved career best for latest effort, however, when runner-up to Ballet Concerto in the John Smith’s at York back in July; that form has been well and truly franked by the winner’s subsequent triumphs at Group level; the break is no problem as he appears to appreciate rests between outings; hasn’t run on this ground, but had form on sf in Ireland, so should not be a major worry, while he’s only 1lb higher than at York.
Plus: class (W); distance (W); course (F); trainer (C); form run lto;
Minus: going (?);up 1lb; 77-day break;
Verdict: (44) Looks to have been laid out for this and a definite contender.
El Hayem 4-8-10 (96) Dr 4
24 Aug Cl 2 Hcap (529 u) 8f gd/sf York (109) 10/1 3.77l 5/17 off 96
Dwelt and in rear, good headway on wide outside 3f out, chased leaders 2f out, ridden over 1f out, kept on same pace final furlong
Looks as if the ground may be against him, as he did not perhaps run to expectations at York lto and has since been withdrawn at Ascot due to unsuitable ground; Newmarket drains quickly though and a dry day is forecast, so perhaps best not to completely write off his chances as he had previously beaten Gm Hopkins (+12) at Sandown; however, does have over 2l to find with Qassem on only 1lb better terms than at York.
Plus: class (W); going (F); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent form run (37 days);
Minus: course (?);
Verdict; (41) question about ground, but a possible contender.
Novoman 3-8-8 (99) Dr 26
27 Aug Cl 2 3yo-Hcap (311 u) 10f gd Good (97) 9/1 1l 1/9 off 94
Took keen hold, mostly tracked leading pair, led on inner over 2f out, soon pushed clear, 4 lengths ahead final furlong, lead dwindled near finish but never in any danger
Is 2/2 under today’s claimer since being upped from 8f to10f, but this is far stiffer opposition than he has faced to date; is up 5lbs for that, but nevertheless, looks the most likely of the 3yos.
Plus: class (W); going (F); distance (W); trainer (14d); form run lto (34 days);
Minus: course (?); up 5lbs;
Verdict: (34) not sure if drop back to 9f will suit, but a possible contender.

Plenty of possible contenders as usual including the bin Suroor duo of Carry On Deryck and Very Talented who finished second and third in last year’s renewal. Both run off a 5lbs higher mark this time round and of the pair I’d prefer COD as VT hasn’t run since. However, with only Educate in 2013 carrying more than 9-4 to victory; he was also one of only two coming out of a single digit stall! Of the 3yos, I prefer the chances of Novoman to Naval Warfare but am wary of Qassem when it comes to evaluating El Hayem’s chances. For my top three though I’m going with Big Country from Brorocco and Thundering Blue.

Newmarket 17.20 Cl 2 Hcap 129 (100) 7f gd/sf – 20 Run (18 at best)
3yo = 3lbs wfa allowance

Last year – 129 (105) gd/fm 12 ran
Salateen 9/1 4-9-5 (100) Dr 7 by 0.75l from Shady McCoy 6/1 6-8-9 (90) Dr 1

Makzeem 4-9-9 (97) Dr 17
29 Jul Cl 2 Hcap (934 u) 7f gd/sf Asc (109) 11/2 F 3.52l 5/27 off 91
Tracked leaders towards far side, not quicken well over 1f out, stayed on again inside final furlong and took 4th briefly
C&D winner in similar conditions here in late June and solid efforts in 2 subsequent starts, the last being far bett4er class than this; going looks to be ideal and while he’s off a 6lbs higher mark surely has to be thereabouts.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto;
Minus: up 6lbs; 63-day break;
Verdict: (48) conditions look ideal and despite the higher mark looks a strong contender.
Ower Fly 4-9-3 (91) Dr 7
16 Sep Cl 4 Hcap (47 d) 7f gd/sf Ling (85) 4/1 4l 1/8 off 83
Made all, narrow advantage until went 3 lengths clear halfway, in command 2f out, pushed along over 1f out, still clear when ridden entering final furlong, ran on well and going away at finish, readily
Has shown improvement since the fitting of blinkers and change to front-running tactics, but those have been in lower class and this much stiffer opposition.
Plus: going (W); distance (W); course (F); trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent form run (14 days);
Minus: class; up 8lbs; up 2 classes;
Verdict: (35) has improved of late, but this much tougher task and not the strongest contender.
Ice Lord 5-9-4 (92) Dr 18
09 Sep Cl2 Hcap (187 u) 6f sf Ascot (103) 6/1 1.25l 1/13 off 86
Awkward start, hanging badly right first furlong and well behind in last, progress from halfway, passed tiring rivals from 2f out to chase leader final furlong, stayed on to lead last 75yds, remarkable
Yet to win at this distance, but after amazing win at Ascot lto must be hopes he can change that scenario.
Plus: class (W); going (F); distance (F); course (F); form run lto (21 days);
Minus: up 6lbs;
Verdict: (35) question of whether he can win over 7f at this level, but a contender.
Scofflaw 3-8-8 (85) Dr 16
14 Sep Cl 4 Hcap (75 u) 7f gd Epsom (82) 7/1 1.25l 1/11 off 80
Held up in touch in midfield, effort 2f out, headway and ridden to lead over 1f out, stayed on under pressure to assert inside final furlong, ridden out
Finally got back to the winner’s enclosure at Epsom mid-month and despite the rise in class and 5lbs in OR could well improve again.
Plus: going (F); distance (W); trainer (14d); form run lto (16);
Minus: class; course (?); up 5lbs;
Verdict: (26) improving 3yo and may answer the questions, a contender.

Somewhat rushed with this one, but I’ll go for the trio drawn next to each other, Makzeem from Scofflaw and Ice Lord.

martinkil
Posts: 3417
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Re: Saturday 30th September

Postby martinkil » Sun Oct 01, 2017 8:15 pm

You should rush a little more often - a 5-1 winner and the combi exacta (6 units) paid 50.9 units


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