Saturday 7 October

Any comments on today's racing. Please don't just put in selections ... please add some reason why you think a runner will win
Devasteve
Posts: 546
Joined: Fri Jan 16, 2015 8:29 am

Saturday 7 October

Postby Devasteve » Sat Oct 07, 2017 12:24 pm

As Martin pointed out, managed to get lucky with another combi last week. If being rushed is the key then we should be alright today too, as once more only two races managed!

Ascot 15.35 Cl 2 Hcap 1121 (109) 7f gd/sf – 18 Run
3yo = 2lbs wfa allowance

Last year – 1121 (109) sf 18 ran
Librisa Breeze 11/2 F4-9-9 (108) Dr 16 by 0.5l from Firmament 8/1 4-9-7 (106) Dr 8
Burnt Sugar 33/1 4-9-0 (99) Dr 6 was 6l 16th

Makzeem 4-9-4 (103) Dr 12
30 Sep Cl 2 Hcap (129 d) 7f gd/sf Nwmk (100) 5/1 F 3.25l 1/18 off 97
Raced stands' side, held up in rear, headway over 2f out, tracking leaders over 1f out, ridden to lead 1f out ran on strongly, readily, 1st of 11 in group
Has shown much more improved since being dropped back to this trip and was a convincing winner at Newmarket last week; runs off a 6lbs penalty here4, but handicapped would likely have raised him more;
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (F); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (7 days);
Minus: 6lbs penalty;
Verdict: (47) fit and in form and a definite contender.
Raising Sand 5-8-13 (98) Dr 1
09 Sep Cl 2 Hcap (498 u) 7f gd/sf Asc (107) 12/1 1.77l 4/17 off 98
Started slowly, held up in last pair, progress 2f out, ridden over 1f out, stayed on well final furlong and nearly snatched 3rd
Won 4 starts last year but has taken time to come to form this year; however, won over 8f at the Shergar Cup meeting here and then after a slow start finished well to finish 4th over C&D here lto in a race involving a number of today’s field; Mijack (-4) was 1.5l ahead in 2nd, but there’s only 1lb between them today; yet to win over 7f, but conditions suit.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (F); course (W); trainer (C); form run lto (28 days);
Minus: yet to win over 7f;
Verdict: (44) runs well here and a likely contender off bottom weight.
Mojito 3-9-3 (104) Dr 18
25 Aug Cl 2 3yo-Hcap (436 u) 8f gd York (102) 3/1 F 2.25l 1/15 off 95
Took keen hold early, tracked leaders, smooth headway to lead well over 1f out, ridden entering final furlong, driven and kept on well towards finish
Highly progressive 3yo who completed his hat-trick over 8f at York in August; has been given a break since and returns to take on older horses for the first time off a 9lbs higher mark; likely more to come as this only his 8th start and has won on both gd and sf, so conditions should suit; however, still a big ask, although like the past 3 3yo winners he did win a handicap at Newmarket in July.
Plus: class (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (43 days);
Minus: going (?); course (?); up 9lbs; taking on older horses for 1st time;
Verdict: (41) progressive sort, but a contender with questions here despite July Newmarket win.
Mijack 3-8-13 (100) Dr 13
09 Sep Cl 2 Hcap (498 d) 7f gd/sf Asc (107) 6/1 Jt F 0.5l 2/17 off 98
Made most, ridden 2f out, headed just inside final furlong, kept on well but always held
Twice won over this distance earlier in the season in Cl 4 3yo-hcaps under today’s rider, but has shown he belongs at this level in being runner-up in valuable all-aged hcaps over C&D here the last twice; raised 2lbs for his latest effort when 1.5l ahead of late-finishing Raising Sand (+4); rider’s claim offsets that, however, and he meets RS on only 1lb worse terms.
Plus: class (F); going (F); distance (W); course (F); trainer (14d); form run lto (28 days);
Minus: up 2lbs;
Verdict: (42) another improving 3yo who should find condition to suit and a contender.
Flaming Spear 5-9-8 (107) Dr 3
09 Sep Gr 3 Stks (357 d) 8f hv Hayd (114) 9/2 30.85l 8/9 off 107
Held up, ridden over 2f out, left behind over 1f out
24 Aug Cl 2 Hcap (529 d) 8f gd/sf York (109) 10/1 1.75l 1/17 off 101
Tracked leaders, smooth headway over 2f out, ridden to lead entering final furlong, kept on strongly
Twice won on the AW at Newcastle over the turn of the year and has been lightly campaigned this term winning his second start at York in August when Firmament (+8) was 2l 3rd; inclined to ignore latest effort at Haydock when both ground and class of opposition may have been against him; still 6lbs above York mark, but not without a chance if refinding that form.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); recent form run (44 days);drop in class;
Minus: course;
Verdict: (28) showed at York that he belongs at this level and a possible contender.

Competitive as ever with any number of potential contenders and while 4-6yos are favoured, Heaven’s Guest did win as a 3yo back in 2013. Besides those in my shortlist I could also make a case for Burnt Sugar (ground and poor strike rate), Straight Right (3yo with no hcap win) and Accidental Agent (3yo up 12lbs). However, one has to stop somewhere. Despite the July win at Newmarket, I’m a little wary of the chances of Mojito as a 3yo taking on older horses for the first time and up 9lbs and with a high draw, so I’ll pass at that price. Mijack’s another 3yo, but could perhaps make the frame on the showing in his two latest starts. One I definitely expect to Mae the frame though is last week’s winner Makzeem and he is taken to win from Raising Sand and Flaming Spear.

Redcar 16.30 Cl 2 Hcap 125 (95) 8f gd/sf – 11 Run
3yo = 3lbs wfa allowance

Last year – 125 (87) gd/fm 15 ran
Father Bertie 4/1 F 4-9-10 (87) Dr 2 by 1l from Dawn Mirage 9/2 4-9-5 (87) Dr 15

Khamaary 3-9-10 (95) Dr 7
02 Sep Cl 2 Hcap (280 u) 7.5f gd Chest (107) 10/1 5.25l 4/12 off 96
Bumped start, held up in midfield, ridden 2f out, progress inside final furlong, stayed on towards finish, never able to trouble leaders
Decent enough effort at Chester lto after being bumped at the start and being unable to lead from wide draw; may be returning to form after winning over C&D on his return.
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); down 1lb;
Minus: 73 days since form run;
Verdict: giving weight to older horses but may well prove the strongest contender.
Off Art 7-8-3 (71) Dr 4
13 Sep Cl 5 Stks (65 s) 8f sf Donc (70) 5/1 0.5l 1/14 off 70
Tracked leaders, headway 3f out, close up 2f out, ridden over 1f out, driven inside final furlong, kept on well to lead last 75yds
26 Aug Cl 4 Hcap (65 u) 8f gd/fm Red (86) 11/1 0.3l 3/11 off 70
Prominent, ridden to lead 2f out, kept on, headed near finish, lost 2nd post
Back to winning form at Doncaster lto, although it wasn’t the best of races; had previously finished 3/11 to Mon Beau Visage (+19) who he meets on 1lb better terms today; however, his win at Doncaster was his the first since his 3yo days, which doesn’t raise hopes of a repeat.
Plus: class (W); going (F); distance (W); course (F); trainer (course); form run lto (24 days);
Minus: up 1lb; up 3 classes;
Verdict: conditions suit, but not the likeliest contender.
Rashford’s Double 3-8-10 (81) Dr 10
29 Sep Cl 4 Hcap (49 d) 8f AW Nwcs (82) 9/1 1.25l 2/10 off 80
Close up, led 2f out, ridden and headed inside final furlong, kept on same pace
Runner-up to Zodiakos (+5) here in mid-August off the same mark and has looked to have made improvement the last twice, although has a better record on the AW than turf; nevertheless, jockey booking looks positive.
Plus: going (F); distance (W); course (F); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (8 days);
Minus: class (?); up 1lb; up 2 classes;
Verdict: (37) could well be improving and a contender.
Mon Beau Visage 4-9-6 (88) Dr 6
29 Sep Cl 2 Hcap (187 u) 9f gd/sf Nwmk (93) 25/1 8.5l 11/16 off 88
Took keen hold, well in touch in midfield, effort 2f out, unable to quicken over 1f out, weakened inside final furlong
26 Aug Cl 4 Hcap (65 u) 8f gd/fm Red (86) 3/1 F 0.05l 1/11 off 86
Held up in midfield, pushed along and headway over 1f out, chased leader approaching final furlong, ridden and kept on, led near finish
Price suggests he wasn’t expected last week at Newmarket coming back from a month’s break and without the customary cheekpieces; previously had won twice in a week carrying big weights in Cl 4 and runs off only a 2lbs higher mark today; however, not sure the ground will suit.
Plus: distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); cheek-pieces refitted;
Minus: class; going; 42 days since form run;
Verdict: (35) would perhaps have a chance on faster ground, but not teh strongest contender today.

A Cl 2 in name only, but a race that Tim Easterby likes to win and his Father Bertie is trying to make it three years in a row. However, he runs off 5lbs less than last year, which gives some idea how he’s non-performed since. Still Easterby has three other entries to try and land the prize, including Off Art from my shortlist. However, I’m passing on the Easterby entries this year and go for Khamaary to get the better of his fellow 3yo Rashford’s Double with perhaps Mon Beau Visage making the frame.

martinkil
Posts: 3413
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Re: Saturday 7 October

Postby martinkil » Mon Oct 09, 2017 8:44 am

You abandoned the forecast path this week and went for the straight 11-2 winner - good decision


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