Saturday 14th October

Any comments on today's racing. Please don't just put in selections ... please add some reason why you think a runner will win
Devasteve
Posts: 546
Joined: Fri Jan 16, 2015 8:29 am

Saturday 14th October

Postby Devasteve » Sat Oct 14, 2017 11:06 am

Yes, sometimes it pays not to be greedy Martin! Don't know what this week will throw up because it's York and the Cesarewitch!

York 14.05 Cl 2 Hcap 218 (103) 10.5f gd – 14 Run (13 at best)
3yo = 4lbs wfa allowance

Last year – 218 (104) gd 9 ran
Autocratic 11/2 3-8-13 (96) Dr 8 by 1l from Great Order 3/1 F 3-9-1 (98) Dr 2

Chelsea Lad 4-9-7 (99) Dr 5
30 Sep Cl 2 Hcap (996 u) 9f gd/sf Nwmk (110) 16/1 2.75l 4/34 off 98
Mid-division on far side, headway over 2f out, soon ridden, kept on inside final furlong, went 4th towards finish
Promising form over 8f early season before being gelded in July; didn’t get the cleanest of runs over 8f here on his return in August, but career best when 4th in the Cambridgeshire; runs of 1lb higher mark here, but untried over this trip.
Plus: class (F); going (F); course (F); trainer (14d); form run lto (14 days);
Minus: distance (?); up 1lb; up in trip;
Verdict: (41) new trip suggests he’s a contender with a question.
Anythingtoday 3-9-3 (99) Dr 7
23 Sep Cl 2 Hcap (467 d) 10f gd Newb (108) 17/2 1.1l 3/19 off 97
In touch, headway 3f out, challenged 2f out, soon ridden to dispute lead, headed entering final furlong, stayed on but no extra when lost 2nd close home
Generally progressive season, other than when not staying 12f on sf at Ascot on penultimate start; bounced back with solid effort at Newbury lto though when a close 3rd to Brorocco; form stamped by winner finishing a close 5th just behind Chelsea Lad in the Cambridgeshire; raised 2lbs, but likely more to come.
Plus: class (F); going (F); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (21 days);
Minus: course (?); up 2lbs;
Verdict: (38) improving sort proven at the distance and a contender.
Linguistic 4-9-11 (103) Dr 12
30 Sep Cl 2 Hcap (996 u) 9f gd/sf Nwmk (110) 10/1 9.82l 18/34 off 103
Raced far side, held up towards rear, headway into midfield 3f out, soon ridden, no further impression
Finished runner-up in both his 2yo starts at Doncaster and Newmarket; returned to take the Tattersalls Millions as a 3yo before twice being runner-up in listed company; very disappointing when upped to 12f in the Edward II Stks at Royal Ascot and was gelded thereafter; not seen until just outpaced by Absolute Blast in listed company at Kempton in April; again off till beaten over 10l when finishing in midfield in the Cambridgeshire where he again may have needed the race; classy individual, but giving weight to the field here and needs to improve from Newmarket.
Plus: class (W); going (F); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent outing (14 days);
Minus: course (?); 197 days since form run;
Verdict: (35) not impossible he could be thereabouts, but a contender with questions.
Dark Red 5-9-4 (96) Dr 8
30 Sep Cl 2 Hcap (187 u) 10f AW Chelm (100) 4/1 Co F 6.35l 6/8 off 96
Held up, headway and not clear run from over 1f out, eased well inside final furlong
26 Aug Cl 2 Hcap (436 u) 10.5f gd York (105) 12/1 1.8l 3/20 off 96
Tracked leaders, headway over 2f out, ridden well over 1f out, kept on final furlong
Not the greatest of winning records but again ran well at around this distance earlier recording career best efforts at Goodwood and over C&D here in August; can forgive last two efforts when favourite at Doncaster (ground) and Chelmsford (traffic); fitted with first-time blinkers today and Norton has won him in the past.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (F); recent outing (14 days);
Minus: 49 days since form run; trainer (14d); trainer (C);
Verdict: (33) proven performer at this trip and a contender if blinkers give him a lift.
Big Country 4-9-8 (100) Dr 13
30 Sep Cl 2 Hcap (996 d) 9f gd/sf Nwmk (110) 7/1 8.05l 16/34 off 100
Raced far side, mid-division, ridden over 2f out, never any impression
15 Jul Cl 2 Hcap (1245 u) 10.5f gd York (109) 7/1 0.75l 2/20 off 99
In touch, headway over 2f out, chased leaders over 1f out, ridden entering final furlong, stayed on well towards finish
Seems to save his best for York, recording career best when winning here in June and then bettering that effort when runner-up to Ballet Concerto in the John Smith’s; failed to live up to expectations in the Cambridgeshire where he failed to handle the dip; interestingly ridden by an in-form claimer, as he was in the John Smith’s.
Plus; class (W); going (F); distance (W); course (W); recent outing (14 days);
Minus: 91 days since last form run;
Verdict: (31) seems to save his best for York and a contender if bouncing back from Cambridgeshire run.

Don’t get any easier these York handicaps, plus we only have four past renewals to go on. Looking at my shortlist, I just worry about Chelsea Lad trying a longer trip for the first time just a fortnight after his fine effort in the Cambridgeshire. He might prove me wrong, but looks a mite too short in the betting for that query. There’s no doubt Linguistic does have a bit of class, but just a single win in eight starts over three seasons is stretching belief, plus he didn’t appear to have any obvious excuse for his Cambridgeshire effort seeing as he can go well fresh. I think I’ll pass again. That still leaves me with three and seeing as how three of the four renewals have been won by 3yos, I have to think Anythingtoday could well be thereabouts. Neither Dark Red nor Big Country exactly excelled lto, but it would be no surprise if they bounced back over a C&D they both like. In the hopes that I get the order right for once I’m going with Anythingtoday from Dark Red and Big Country.

Newmarket 15.40 Cl 2 Hcap 1556 (103) 18f gd – 34 Run
3yo = 4lbs wfa allowance

Last year – 1556 (104) gd 33 Ran
Sweet Selection 7/1 4-8-8 (87) Dr 23 by 3l from First Mohican 50/1 8-9-0 (98) Dr 16
Star Rider 33/1 4-8-12 (91) Dr 27 was 9.25l 8th
Shrewd 40/1 6-9-4 (102) Dr 28 was 14l 12th

Who Dares Wins 5-9-4 (97) Dr 8
23 Sept Cl 2 Hcap (311 u) 18f gd Nwmk (103) 7/1 1.75l 1/20 off 93
Chased leaders, ridden over 2f out, led over 1f out, hung left inside final furlong, stayed on
Won the trail here 3 weeks ago when he had several of today’s field trailing; had also run well in the Chester Cup earlier in the season; carries a penalty for his latest win, but has far more trends negatives against him than that.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (21 days);
Minus: 4lbs penalty;
Verdict: (51) if defying the negative trends a strong contender
Time To Study 3-8-13 (102) Dr 12
15 Sep Cl 2 Hcap (259 d) 14.5f gd/sf Donc 11/8 F 0.1l 1/7 off 98
Tracked leader, headway to take slight lead 3f out, soon joined and ridden, driven entering final furlong, rider dropped rein last 50yds, held on gamely towards finish
Carries a 4lbs penalty for seeing off Byron Flyer (+5) and Shrewd (+1) in the Mallard at Doncaster last month, although the latter was 5l adrift; likely to confirm that running despite being worse off with BF, and Johnston won with a 3yo back in ’98.
Plus: class (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (29 days);
Minus: going (?); distance (?); course (?); 4lbs penalty;
Verdict: (44) looks a typical tough 3yo from the Johnston yard and a potential contender.
Withhold 4-8-8 (87) Dr 24
23 Sep Cl 3 Hcap (70 u) 12f gd Newb (93) 8/1 4.75l 3/12 off 87
Tracked leaders, ridden to lead well over 1f out, soon headed, kept on same pace final furlong
Beat London Prize (0) in a 16f hcap at Haydock on final start as a 3yo; moved from the Hills yard back in May, but didn’t make his season’s debut until last month where he performed quite well over too short a trip; a little worried he may be somewhat undercooked for such a competitive handicap, but entitled to come on for his Newbury race and rise in trip a definite plus.
Plus: going (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer C); form run lto (21 days);
Minus: class (?); course (?); up in class;
Verdict: (43) lightly-raced, but a possible contender if overcoming high draw.
Dubawi Fifty 4-8-11 (90) Dr 19
18 Aug Cl 3 Hcap (226 u) 14f gd/sf Nott (95) 5/1 0.25l 1/12 off 85
Held up towards rear, headway 3f out, effort on wide outside 2f out, chased leaders and ridden over 1f out, stayed on strongly final furlong to lead near finish
Win at Nottingham move is record to 2/2 on turf, plus he has already won over 16.5f on the AW; has been raised 5lbs for that and rises in class yet again today, but there should be a lot more to come before he eventually goes hurdling.
Plus: distance (W); trainer (14d); form run lto;
Minus: class (?); going (?); course (?); up 5lbs; up in class; 57-day break;
Verdict: (40) lot of questions to answer, but improving sort and a possible contender.
Lagostovegas 5-8-12 (91) Dr 5
14 Sept Gr B Hcap Hdl (354 u) 16f hv List (155) 5/2 F 0.25l 1/11 off 136
Chased leaders, close 5th before 3 out, improved travelling well to lead before next, ridden out closing stages where strongly pressed, just held on
31 Jul Hcap (590 u) 17f yld Gal (95) 6/1 2.85l 3/20 off 89
Chased leaders, took closer order behind leaders going well under 3f out and led over 2f out, soon ridden and strongly pressed, headed inside final furlong and soon no chance with easy winner, denied 2nd final strides, just held 3rd
In good form over hurdles at Listowel last month when Swamp Fox (+14) was 9.5l back in 4th; had earlier finished just 0.1l behind SF (-7) when 3rd to Whiskey Sour at Galway on his last flat start back in July; a race in which Mullins is still looking for his first winner and with Ryan Moore aboard this looks the best of his trio of entries this year.
Plus: class (F); distance (F); recent outing (30 days);
Minus: going (?); course (?); up 2lbs;
Verdict: (38) difficult to gauge NH horses on the Flat, but looks a possible contender.

Not my favourite race due to the number of NH horses returning to the Flat, and I could well be wrong in ignoring John Constable who has much improved form over hurdles but has little Flat form to suggest he can win this. There are others possibles of course, but my first cut removed all horses beaten more than 10l lto, which removed over a third. There is a seeming anomaly in the age of winners in that 5yos have the worst record (5/191 in the past 25 years or so and none in the last 10 years). Why this should be I haven’t a clue, and I have a couple in my shortlist! Other things to note are past form at Cl 2 level or better, at least 10 career runs and 4 in the current season, and a top 7 finish lto. Looking at my shortlist, Withhold has but a single start this year, and that over 12f, plus has no form in Cl 2. That’s three strikes and he’s out. Dubawi Fifty has a lot of questions too, so he’s gone with no Cl 2 runs let alone form. That leaves me with a couple of 5yos and a 3yo, hardly ideal. Going way out on a limb with few expectations, I’ll go for Time To Study from Who Dares Wins and Lagostovegas in the hope that one may make the frame.

Devasteve
Posts: 546
Joined: Fri Jan 16, 2015 8:29 am

Re: Saturday 14th October

Postby Devasteve » Sat Oct 14, 2017 4:24 pm

Good job I got the York race right in two, as the words 'baby' and 'bathwater' come to mind with the Cesarewitch! :mrgreen:


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