Saturday 21st October

Any comments on today's racing. Please don't just put in selections ... please add some reason why you think a runner will win
Devasteve
Posts: 546
Joined: Fri Jan 16, 2015 8:29 am

Saturday 21st October

Postby Devasteve » Sat Oct 21, 2017 11:12 am

"nuff said about last week, although it could have been a lot worse. Don't know how today will go as while Ascot is a wonderful meeting to watch there is only one qualifying race there for me. I'm not exactly over-excited by the Catterick sprint either. Still, we can but try.

Catterick 15.30 Cl 2 Hcap 187 (97) 5f sf – 15 Run (14 at best)

Last year – 156 (99) sf 13 ran
Ocean Sheridan 6/1 4-8-9 (87) Dr 14 by 0.25l from Confessional 25/1 9-8-12 (90) Dr 11
Aleef 14/1 3-8-12 (90) Dr 12 was 0.5l 3rd
Udontdodou 5/1 F 3-8-9 (87) Dr 13 was 5l 3rd
Tylery Wonder 9/1 6-8-4 (85) Dr 9 was 15l 12th

Confessional 10-8-10 (86) Dr 1
30 Sep Cl 2 Hcap (280 u) 5f hv Hayd (99) 9/1 0.52l 4/14 off 86
Slight lead centre, ridden along 2f out, headed just over 1f out, soon driven, kept on well
Veteran sprinter in good form at present and only 3lbs above his last winning mark at Chester in July; runs off a 4lbs lower mark than when runner-up in last year’s renewal and not impossible he could finally win this at the 5th attempt.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (C); form run lto (21 days);
Minus: trainer 14d (2/55);
Verdict: (43) consistent sprinter and in good form, a contender.
Green Door 6-9-5 (95) Dr 13
17 Oct Cl 2 Hcap (156 d) 5f gd/sf Leic (106) 33/1 1l 3/10 off 96
Prominent, joined leader over 3f out, ridden and every chance over 1f out, stayed on
Very much in-and-out performer but was a good 3rd in decent race at Leicester on Tuesday under today’s claimer and runs off only 1lb higher than for his last win (also on sf) at Newmarket in June 2016; conditions suit, but poor strike rate (5/40 overall).
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); trainer (C); form run lto (4 days);
Minus: course (?);
Verdict: (36) chance on Tuesday’s running, but rarely puts two good runs together, so a contender with questions.
Tylery Wonder 7-8-10 (86) Dr 12
13 Oct Cl 3 Hcap (125 d) 5f gd York (93) 16/1 2.55l 4/20 off 86
Led in far side group, ridden, edged right and headed as groups merged well over 1f out, rallied inside final furlong
24 Sep Prem Hcap (295 u) 5f sf Naas (103) 10/1 1.5l 1/12 off 80
Broke smartly and made all on far side, ridden to extend advantage approaching final furlong, stayed on well
Won a decent hcap in similar conditions in Ireland in September, but unable to follow up when dropped to Cl 3 at York on his return when Memories Galore (-3) was runner-up; nevertheless, it was a decent enough effort considering he was off a 10lbs higher mark than when winning at York at the start of July; however, is 1lb higher than when finishing down the field in last year’s renewal.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); recent form run (27 days);
Minus: course; trainer 14d (0/14); up in class;
Verdict: (32) chances if bringing Naas form to bear off his new mark and a possible contender.
Memories Galore 5-8-8 (84) Dr 4
13 Oct Cl 3 Hcap (125 u) 5f gd York (93) 16/1 1.25l 2/20 off 83
In touch stands' side group, effort and angled right as groups merged over 1f out, kept on well final furlong to take second close home
Another good effort at York lto when finishing ahead of Tylery Wonder (+3) and with his rider’s claim should confirm that running if handling the ground; however, has yet to win above Cl 4.
Plus: class (F); distance (W); trainer (C); form run lto (8 days);
Minus: going; course (?); up 1lb; up in class;
Verdict: could be improving and a possible contender if handling the ground.

Not many in-form horses here with the defection of Udontdodou, but a recent run seems to be imperative. Orion’s Bow is immediately discarded as he hasn’t run worth a lick since joining the Tim Easterby yard. However, he still has the veteran Confessional to represent his chances. Cowell has a couple of entries too and I prefer the inconsistent Green Door to the lightly-raced 3yo Storm Over. I think I’ll pass on Tylery Wonder too, as I can’t see him reversing York running with Memories Galore, providing the latter handles the ground. So in the hopes that low-drawn horses make a comeback this year, I’ll go with Confessional from Memories Galore and Green Door.

Ascot 16.30 Cl 2 Hcap 1556 (109) 8f sf – 20 Run
3yo = 3lbs wfa allowance

Last year – 1556 (110) gd 19 ran
Yuften 12/1 5-9-1 (101) Dr 1 by 1l from Remarkable 12/1 3-9-0 (103) Dr 9
Firmament 7/1 4-9-8 (108) Dr 16 was 1.5l 3rd
Master The World 25/1 5-9-8 (108) Dr 5 was 3.77l dht 12th
Gm Hopkins 15/2 5-9-10 (110) Dr 8 was 7.27l 15th

Zabeel Prince 4-9-3 (102) Dr 16
13 Oct Cl 2 Hcap (187 u) 8f gd York (96) 15/8 F 2.75l 1/20 off 96
Took keen hold, held up in touch, smooth headway to lead over 2f out, ridden clear from over 1f out, readily
Made debut as a 3yo, being runner-up over 7f on sf at Redcar last October; gelded between seasons and has won all 3 starts this term, the latest being yet another career best when easily taking a big-field York hcap over 8f mid-month; carries a 6lbs penalty for that, but there could well be more to come.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (8 days);
Minus: course (?); 6lbs penalty;
Verdict: (50) only 5th start and on an upward curve, a contender.
Lord Glitters 4-9-3 (102) Dr 3
07 Oct Cl 2 Hcap (1121 u) 7f gd/sf Asc (109) 20/1 0.5l 2/18 off 102
Dwelt, held up in last, still there just over 2f out, good progress well over 1f out going strongly, ridden and ran on to take 2nd near finish, too late to reach winner
Made fine debut for O’Meara yard when runner-up to Accidental Agent (0) over 7f here a fortnight ago; meets his conqueror on 5lbs better terms today and should reverse that running; has won over this distance in similar conditions in France so no problems on that score.
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (W); course (F); trainer (14d); form run lto (14 days);
Minus:
Verdict: weighted to reverse lto running with Accidental Agent and a contender.
The Grape Escape 3-9-1 (103) Dr 12
09 Oct Cl 3 3yo-Hcap (112 u) 8f sf Pont (97) 9/4 Jt F 2.25l 1/7 off 97
Tracked leader, headway and close up over 2f out, led well over 1f out, ridden entering final furlong, kept on strongly
Sandown winner over this trip as a 2yo, showed promising early season form before running down the field in the Britannia at Royal Ascot; given a break thereafter, but has come back to take a pair of Cl 3 hcaps under today’s rider at Sandown in September and Pontefract earlier in the month; carries a 6lbs penalty for the latter, plus reverts to facing older horse again, but could be more to come.
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); form run lto (12 days);
Minus: course; 6lbs penalty; up in class;
Verdict: (43) improving 3yo, but this much sterner test than he’s faced to date and not the strongest contender perhaps.
Gm Hopkins 6-9-5 (104) Dr 18
30 Sep Cl2 Hcap (996) 9f gd/sf Nwmk (108) 25/1 4.95l 10/34 off 107
Held up towards rear on far side, ridden and steady progress from 2f out, kept on entering final furlong but not going pace to get involved
08 Jul Cl 2 Hcap (431 d) 8f gd/fm Sand (105) 8/1 0.25l 2/13 off 104
Dwelt, held up in last pair, progress on outer 2f out, driven to challenge inside final furlong, pressed winner last 100yds, always held
Not won since taking the Paradise Stks here in April 2016, but put in his best performance for a while when runner-up in a decent hcap at Sandown in July; hasn’t built on that, however, although not entirely disgraced in the Cambridgeshire last month; has been dropped back to his Sandown mark, but still 1lb above his mark when taking the 2015 Hunt Cup here; won his mdn on sf, but believe he prefers better ground to be seen at his best.
Plus: class (W); going (W?); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent outing (21 days); down 3lbs;
Minus: 105 days since form run; no win in last 10 starts);
Verdict: (41) has the ability if on a going day, but not the most reliable contender nowadays.
Speculative Bid 6-9-9 (108) Dr 6
07 Oct Cl 2 Hcap (1121 u) 7f gd/sf Asc (109) 33/1 5.35l 7/18 off 108
Sweating; held up well in rear, ridden over 2f out, progress towards near side over 1f out, kept on and never nearer
Victoria Cup winner here back in 2015 but had not run since the end of that season when putting in a very promising effort to finish 7/18 to Accidental Agent (-6) here a fortnight ago; meets the 3yo on 5lbs better terns today and could well be a factor if building on that, although only has a mdn win over 8f on hv as qualifications in those areas.
Plus: class (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); recent outing (14 days);
Minus: going; 792 days since form run;
Verdict: (36) has capability based on 2015 running and a contender if building on lto run here.
Accidental Agent 3-9-8 (110) Dr 15
07 Oct Cl 2 Hcap (1121 u) 7f gd/sf Asc (109) 16/1 0.5l 1/18 off 104
Dwelt, held up well in rear, switched towards far side and progress over 2f out, ridden to chase leader over 1f out, driven ahead last 150yds, stayed on
Has been in good form of late culminating in beating Lord Glitters (0) over 7f here lto with the likes of Speculative Bid, Firmament and Withernsea further down the field; however, has a 6lbs penalty today, plus tries this trip for the first time on the softest ground he has encountered to date; may find it hard to confirm running with LG.
Plus: class (W); course (W); trainer (14d); form run lto (14 days);
Minus: going (?); distance (?); 6lbs penalty;
Verdict: (30) will need a deal of improvement to confirm lto running and as trying trip and ground for the first time is not the strongest contender.

Just the three renewals to date, all of which were won by 5yos drawn between 1 and 10 that had run 21 days previously. Nothing meets all those criteria this year and the betting is dominated by a pair of 4yos who have been in good form of late. Pruning my shortlist sees the 3yo Accidental Agent as the first to go, as while he beat Lord Glitters and others over 7f here lto he’s not weighted to confirm that running over a new trip and on softer ground. I also have questions about the other 3yo, The Grape Escape who also carries a 6lbs penalty but is up in class today, and the last time he ran at this level he was down the field in the Britannia here. You could make cases for GM Hopkins and Speculative Bid, although of the pair I prefer the latter. However, it’s hard not to follow the crowd and suggest the race will likely be between Zabeel Prince and Lord Glitters. One is drawn low and the other high, and usually I have a preference for low drawn horses over Ascot’s straight mile. So I’ll go for Lord Glitters from Zabeel Prince with perhaps Speculative Bid making the frame.

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