Saturday 28th October

[Devasteve]

I'm ducking Cheltenham today only because I just haven't had the study time it requires. So just a couple of flat races instead.

Doncaster 14.55 Cl 2 Hcap 129 (95) 12f gd/sf – 9 Run
3yos = 6lbs wfa allowance

Last year – 162 (99) gd 12 ran
To Be Wild 6/1 3-8-10 (93) Dr 12 by 4l from Percy Street 20/1 3-8-12 (97) Dr 1
Mukhayyam 20/1 4-9-0 (90) Dr 13 was 14.15l 8th

Lawless Secret 3-8-10 (85) Dr 9
09 Oct Cl 3 Hcap (72 d) 11.5f gd/sf Wind 7/2 Jt F 2.25l 3/9 off 85
Tracked leaders, ridden in 3rd place when winner kicked for home 3f out, kept on after but never quite able to challenge
Surprise winner of a 10f mdn on her debut at Windsor in August and followed up by finishing runner-up to previous winner Pivoine in a 10f stks here the following month; put in another career best back at Windsor lto when upped to 11.5f on hcap debut and finished 3rd to fellow jt favourite Solar Cross; runs off the same mark today; handles the ground and on only fourth start should have much more to come.
Plus: going (W); distance (F); course (F); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (19 days);
Minus: class (?); up in class;
Verdict: (43) has improved with every run to date and although up in class, should be a contender off this mark.
Rainbow Rebel 4-9-5 (88) Dr 8
24 Jun Cl 3 Hcap (97 d) 10f gd Ayr (96) 5/2 Jt F 2.82l 5/7 off 89
Led, ridden and hard pressed over 2f out, headed approaching final furlong, soon one pace
08 Jun Cl 4 Hcap (55 d) 11f sf Carl (87) 7/4 F 0.1l 2/6 off 87
Led for 2f, chased leader after until regained lead over 2f out, pressed well over 1f out, headed narrowly final 110yds, kept on, just held
Showed much promise as a 3yo landing a 4-timer from 8f to 10.5f on ground from hv to gd/fm; hasn’t reached the level this term although did match career best when just denied by Swaheen over 11f at Carlisle in early June; not quite as effective in 2 subsequent starts when returned to Cl 3 and has been given a break since; big ask on return from break and still 8lbs above last winning mark.
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (F); trainer (14d); trainer (C); down 1lb;
Minus: course; 126-day break; 234 days since form run; up in class;
Verdict: (39) asking a lot coming back from a 4-month break and not a strong contender.
Lustrous Light 4-9-12 (95) Dr 5
15 Sep Cl 2 Stks (125 s) 14f sf Salis (106) 12/1 5.75l 3/6 off 97
Held up in chasing group, ridden 2f out, stayed on but not pace to get on terms, went 3rd close home
Twice a winner for Ger Lyons in Ireland last year at 10 and 12f on gd/yld, but hasn’t shown a lot since joining Beckett this term; well beaten 3rd to Mukkayyam (-15) over 12f at York in mid-June; 11lbs better off today and first-time cheek-pieces applied, but has questions to answer.
Plus: class (F); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); down 2lbs;
Minus: going; course (?); 42-day break; 127 days since form run;
Verdict: (37) hasn’t built on Irish form as yet so cheek-pieces will need to bring much improvement; not a strong contender.
Burguillos 4-9-12 (95) Dr 4
15 Jul Cl 3 Hcap (97 d) 10f gd Asc (97) 9/2 12.75l L/11 off 95
Held up towards rear, tried to make progress on outer halfway, no headway over 2f out, weakened over 1f out
16 Jun Cl 3 Hcap (125 d) 10.5f gd/fm York (94) 4/1 0.25l 2/13 off 92
Held up, headway over 3f out, tracked leaders 2f out, effort, not clear run and switched left over 1f out, soon ridden to challenge entering final furlong, soon driven and every chance, kept on
Just a 10f mdn winner as a 3yo but gelded between seasons and returned to score at Leicester in early May; followed up with a pair of good runner-up efforts in hcaps at York over 12f and 10f; something obviously wrong at Ascot in mid-July though and hasn’t been seen since; was entered at York a fortnight back but withdrawn, so this will be first run since mid-July; booking of Moore may be significant though.
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (F); course (F); trainer (C);
Minus: 105-day break; 134 days since last form run; trainer (14d – 0/14); up in class;
Verdict; (31) could be fancied on early season form and best to treat Ascot run as a blip; a possible contender as can go well fresh.
Reshoun 3-8-11 (86) Dr 7
19 Oct Cl 4 Hcap (52 d) 12.5f AW Nwcs (86) 7/2 1.75l 3/13 off 80
Dwelt, held up, ridden and headway over 2f out, kept on inside final furlong, never able to challenge
10 Oct Cl 4 3yo-Hcap (64 d) 12f sf Leic (86) 6/1 0.25l 2/7 off 80
Held up, headway 2f out, chased winner over 1f out, soon ridden and every chance, edged right inside final furlong, stayed on
French import that joined current yard at the end of July and has shown improvement on his 2 starts this month at Leicester and Newcastle, setting career bests on turf and AW; however, runs off a 6lbs higher mark today plus rises 2 classes, so quite an ask for him to be involved at the sharp end of today’s race.
Plus: distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (9 days);
Minus: class; going; course (?); up 6lbs; up 2 classes;
Verdict: (31) improving sort, but this is a much harder test for his third run in a month, and doesn’t look the strongest contender.

A race that has gone exclusively to 3yos since being raised to a Cl 2 five years ago, today’s race also has an entry that could put the cat among the pigeons in Ooty Hill. He won on his only start as a 2yo and was highly tried in the last pair of his three starts the following year. Those were almost two years ago though and in the meantime he’d been gelded and changed stables, but didn’t shape badly in a similar race at Newmarket last month, only fading from 2f out. However, while he may have a chance if coming on for that, he doesn’t make my shortlist. Of those that do, Rainbow Rebel, Reshoun and Lustrous Light are the first to go, leaving me with the filly Lawless Secret from Burguillos with perhaps Lustrous Light and Reshoun fighting out the remaining places.

Newbury 15.20 Cl 2 Hcap 129 (102) 10f sf – 11 Run
3yos = 4lbs wfa allowance

Last year – 129 (102) gd/sf 14 ran
What About Carlo 7/1 5-9-5 (95) Dr 5 by 1.75l from Blair House 4/1 3-9-1 (96) Dr 10
Storm Rock 9/1 4-9-2 (92) Dr 11 was 2.35l 5th
Awake My Soul 33/1 7-9-3 (93) Dr 4 was 3.1l 6th

Abdon 4-9-12 (102) Dr 8
30 Sept Cl 2 Hcap (187 d) 10f AW Chelm (100) 10/1 0.5l 2/8 off 100
Started slowly, held up, ridden and ran on inside final furlong, went 2nd post, not reach winner
Disappointing in the main, for despite winning a small field hcap at Haydock last season has not built on that; was gelded back in May, but showed nothing in next 2 starts before putting in a better effort on AW debut at Chelmsford last month under today’s rider; has been raised 2lbs for that, however, which brings him back to last year’s winning mark.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (C); form run lto (28 days);
Minus: up 2lbs;
Verdict: (42) chance if building on Chelmsford run and thus considered a possible contender.
Century Dream 3-9-7 (101) Dr 11
30 Sept Cl 2 Hcap (125 d) 8f hv Hayd (99) 7/1 0.05l 1/13 off 98
Tracked leaders on outer, headway over 2f out, challenged over 1f out, ridden to lead just inside final furlong, soon edged left, kept on well towards finish
Things have come together of late with the fitting of a hood and drop back to 8f as he has won 3 of his last 4 starts; the way he saw out 8f in heavy conditions at Haydock last month suggests that the return to today’s trip should not be beyond him; although he has been raised 3lbs that was a career best and as a 3yo there could well be more to come.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (F); trainer (14d); form run lto (28 days);
Minus: course; up 3lbs;
Verdict: (41) progressing nicely since the fitting of the hood and a definite contender.
Master Carpenter 6-9-7 (97) Dr 2
14 Oct Cl 2 Hcap (218 u) 10.5f gd York (103) 12/1 3.1l 4/12 off 97
Tracked leaders, headway on inner 4f out, close up over 2f out, ridden and every chance over 1f out, driven and kept on same pace final furlong
Has been a fine servant for the yard and won on similar ground at York back in May; again ran well there lto, but it is a horse where he has invariably run well through the years; however, he’s 0/5 at Newbury, so no guarantee that he’ll improve his record here, especially as stable is not in form.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); form run lto (14 days);
Minus: course (0/5); trainer (14d – 0/14);
Verdict: (36) ran well enough at York but again younger legs might speed past on a course where he has never run well; thus not a strong contender
Towerlands Park 4-9-1 (91) Dr 5
07 Dec Cl 4 Hcap (47 u) 11f AW Kemp (83) 6/4 F 1l 1/13 off 83
Settled behind leaders, travelling strongly entering straight, cruised into lead 2f out, ridden over 1f out, in command inside final furlong, challenged close home but pulled out more
Three runs as a 2yo included 4/17 in an 8f mdn here on gd/sf followed by shedding his mdn tag on the AW at Kempton; off a year and won over 11f at Kempon his hcap debut last December; hasn’t run since, but can obviously go well fresh and this first run since being gelded last month; questions of course, not least an 8lbs higher mark, but too interesting to ignore.
Plus: distance (W); course (F);
Minus: class (?); going (?); up 8lbs; up 2 classes; 325-day break; trainer (14d – 0/13);
Verdict: (29) can go well fresh and first race since the snip so despite the other questions, a possible contender.

Despite running off much lower marks I can’t see either Storm Rock or Awake My Soul faring much better than last year and they join most of the others on the discard pile. Among them is Restorer, who despite running well enough on his penultimate start just doesn’t win; 2/19 the last being 2 years ago. Meanwhile, pared from my brief shortlist is Master Carpenter as this is Newbury not York. Of the other three, I can’t argue with Century Dream being a short-priced favourite with Abdon the most likely danger if building on his Chelmsford run. However, Towerlands Park could be an interesting one and for those that hate backing short priced favourites he may be worth small e/w support!

[martinkil]

I can’t argue with Century Dream (WON 13-8) being a short-priced favourite with Abdon (2nd 12-1) the most likely danger if building on his Chelmsford run. However, Towerlands Park (3rd 9-1)could be an interesting one and for those that hate backing short priced favourites he may be worth small e/w support!


1st - 2nd and 3rd in the right order .... just as the turf flat season is winding down!- Two more weeks to make hay.