Sunday 29th October

Any comments on today's racing. Please don't just put in selections ... please add some reason why you think a runner will win
Devasteve
Posts: 546
Joined: Fri Jan 16, 2015 8:29 am

Sunday 29th October

Postby Devasteve » Sun Oct 29, 2017 11:56 am

Thanks Martin, it was a nice tricast and it's so pleasing when things come out like that - unfortunately I picked the wrong 3yo at Doncaster! See what we can do over the sticks today.

Aintree 15.00 Gr 2 Hcap Chase 394 (166) 20f gd/sf – 13 Run (12 at best)

Last year – 366 (167) gd 7 ran
Third Intention 5/1 9-10-7 (150) by 1.75l from God’s Own 4/1 8-11-9 (166)
Smad Place 13/2 9-11-10 (167) was 4.5l 4th
Royal Regatta 13/2 8-10-7 150) was 8l 5th

Tea For Two 8-11-8 (164)
06 Apr Gr 1 Chase (840 d) 25f gd Aint (170) 10/1 0.25l 1/7 off 158
Held up, headway 3rd, soon tracking leaders, driven upsides 3 out, led between last 2, over 1 length ahead last, edged left final 150yds, all out
Has struck up an understanding with his young conditional rider and won 2 of his last 3 starts, bouncing back well from a blunder that put him out of the Cheltenham Gold Cup to just deny Cue Card in the Betway Bowl here with Smad Place some way back in 3rd; not sure the drop back in trip will suit, however, plus generally needs a run or two to sweep away the cobwebs.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C);
Minus: 206-day break; up 6lbs; down in trip;
Verdict: (57) improving chaser but might well need the run and likely needs further nowadays, so not the strongest contender.
God’s Own 9-11-10 (166)
25 Apr Gr 1 Chase (1280 d) 16f gd/yld Punch (169) 7/1 2.25l 3/8 off 164
Chased leaders, 4th before 4 out, pushed along in 5th after next and close up behind leaders in 3rd at last when mistake, kept on closing stages, not trouble winner
Top class chaser with a preference for ground on the softer side of good; C&D winner having won the 2016 Melling chase and runs off the same mark as when runner-up to Third Attention (-16) in last year’s renewal on his return last October; didn’t manage a win last year and was disappointing in the Melling here in April, but finished off with a better effort in the Boylesport Champion Chase at Punchestown (another race he’d won the previous year) when 3rd to Fox Norton and Un De Sceux; can go well fresh and softening ground a plus.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (C);
Minus: 187-day break;
Verdict: (52) handles the fences and the ground will suit, so a possible contender.
Cloudy Dream 7-10-13 (155)
22 Apr Gr 2 Nov Ch (263 d) 20.5f gd Ayr (157) 11/4 2l 1/7 off
Not fluent on occasions, held up in touch, hit 11th, steady headway before 4 out, effort and chased leader before last, ridden to lead run-in, stayed on strongly
Useful hurdler who built on initial promise over fences last year being runner-up in the Arkle and the Manifesto here before winning a Gr 2 NCh on his final start when he had Oldgrangewood (0) 5.75l back in 3rd; the latter is 8lbs better off today, plus has also had an outing over hurdles, but CD goes well fresh and providing jumping errors have been ironed out over the summer further improvement can be expected on only his 8th start over fences.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (F); trainer (14d); trainer (C);
Minus: 190-day break;
Verdict: (47) things look in his favour if cutting out his jumping errors and a definite contender.
Shantou Village 7-10-6 (148)
29 Apr Cl 2 Nov Hcap Chase (188 u) 20f gd Sand (152) 3/1 F 0.25l 1/10 off 146
Pressed leader, led and dived at 12th, hard pressed after, not fluent 2 out, held on well under pressure from last
Useful hurdler who took well to fences last term winning 4 of 5, the only failure coming in a Gr 2 NCh at Wincanton last November when falling at the last, although did look held; ended the season by justifying favouritism in a NHCh at Sandown in April; has only been raised 2lbs for that and thus starts the new season off a decent mark; slight question about the ground as all start have been on gd save for when he finished runner-up to Yanworth on hv over hurdles back in Jan 2016.
Plus: distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C);
Minus: class; going (?); course (?); up 2lbs; up in class;
Verdict: (40) is 4/4 over fences under Fehily and must be considered a contender.
Third Intention 10-10-8 (150)
Runs off the same mark as when taking last year’s renewal from God’s Own; as usual, showed nothing thereafter; would be ignored except for his remarkable record on return: W02WW2W; he has only won 2 of his other 41 NH starts.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (F); trainer (14d); trainer (C);
Minus; 183-day break; 372 days since last form run;
Verdict: (29) his record first up makes him worthy of consideration as a possible contender.

Early season chase where recent form is lacking and plenty of potential pitfalls, of which Traffic Fluide may be a danger I’ve overlooked. However, from my shortlist Tea For Two is the first to go based on distance and likely to need the run, but I can make a stronger case for the remaining quartet and it’s a matter of getting them in the right order. I just wonder if God’s Own chance may have gone, for he was winless last season and he has no advantage in meeting Third Intention on better terms, the latter only being of note first time out. Cloudy Dream and Shantou Village are both 7yos, and there have been a couple of winners of that age. However, most winners are 9yo or older, so I’m really sticking my neck out in going for Third Intention to do the double from Cloudy Dream with Shantou Village and God’s Own fighting it out for third.

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