Saturday 4 November

Any comments on today's racing. Please don't just put in selections ... please add some reason why you think a runner will win
Devasteve
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Joined: Fri Jan 16, 2015 8:29 am

Saturday 4 November

Postby Devasteve » Sat Nov 04, 2017 11:26 am

With no qualifying flat races today I've been forced to foray into the NH field, although we are of course already into November. Nevertheless, as it is the start of a new season prudence is advised.

Ascot 14.25 Listed Hcap Chase 342 (148) 17f gd – 11 Run (10 at best)

Last year – 342 (146) gd 11 ran
Quite By Chance 8/1 7-11-1 (135) by 6l from Noche De Reyes 7/1 7-10-8 (128)
Festive Affair 12/1 8-10-5 (125) was 7l 3rd

Quite By Chance 8-11-8 (144)
07 Apr Gr 3 Hcap Chase (674 u) 21f gd Aint (157) 33/1 PU/29 off 145
Mid-division, lost place 12th (Canal Turn), soon behind, tailed off when pulled up before 15th
10 Dec Gr 3 Hcap Chase (570 d) 21f sf Chelt (158) 20/1 2.1l 4/16 off 147
Mid-division, hampered 12th, ridden after 3 out, headway next, stayed on from last, went 4th close home
Runs off a 9lbs higher mark than when taking last year’s renewal, but subsequently put up decent efforts in being runner-up to Sire De Grugy over C&D here in December and then 4/16 to Frodon at Cheltenham in December; didn’t fare so well after the turn of the year but could well bounce back on his return as he did last year.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); down 1lb;
Minus: 329 days since form run;
Verdict: (43) conditions ideal and chances of a repeat if turning up in last year’s best form, a contender.
Marracudja 6-11-5 (141)
22 Oct Cl 3 Hcap Chase (81 u) 18f gd Kemp (139) 2/1 F 1.5l 2/8 off 139
Chased leaders, effort to close and lead 3 out, driven between last 2, headed and outpaced final 75yds
Useful novice hurdler and took to fences right away in winning his first 2 chase starts last autumn; failed to kick on from there though in 5 small field affairs; better effort on his return and chances if building on that.
Plus: going (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (13 days); career best lto;
Minus: class; course (?); up 2lbs; up 2 classes;
Verdict: (40) young chaser with chances if building on comeback run, a contender.
Somchine 9-11-0 (136)
22 Apr List Hcap Chase (228 u) 15.5f gd Ayr 20/1 5.05l 3/10 off 136
Held up, headway before 4 out, led next, ridden 2 out, hung left and headed before last, kept on
Proved capable enough over fences at lower levels last season, although limitations exposed on final start when raised to listed class at Ayr for the first time; as a 9yo with over 20 chase starts I doubt much improvement is likely and may struggle at this level.
Plus: class (F); going (F); distance (W); trainer (14d)
Minus: course (?); 196 days since last form run;
Verdict: (37) yet to win at this level and an unlikely contender on his return.
Little Pop 9-10-3 (125)
18 Oct Cl 3 Hcap Chase (65 u) 15f gd Weth (128) 4/1 F 4.5l 2/8 off 123
Raced wide, led, mistake 8th and headed next, tracked leaders, ridden after 3 out, plugged on to go 2nd run-in, no chance with winner
The addition of a tongue-tie sparked improvement and had twice made all under his amateur rider before the pair failed to land the hat-trick when raised to Cl 3 at Wetherby last month; has been raised a further 2lbs for that and tilts at much higher target today with Bargary taking over in the saddle.
Plus: going (W); distance (W); trainer (14d) form run lto (17 days);
Minus: class (?); course (?): up 2lbs; up 2 classes;
Verdict: (36) less exposed than Somechine but another 9yo looking for much improvement to tackle this class, not a strong contender.

A race that generally goes to younger chasers, with only Bleu Superbe in 2008 being over 8yo. Nor for that matter has the winner carried more than 11-6 over the last 10 renewals. Calipto seems popular in many quarters, but slightly softer ground may better suit the Nicholls cast-off who was 6th in the Grand Annual when Theinval (+5) was 3rd; I’m passing on both. I think I’ll also pass on Somchine and Little Pop both of whom are 9yos looking to step up in class. Of the remaining pair I’m inclined to take a chance on Marracudja who is also looking to step up in class, but has less miles on the clock as a 6yo and could come on for his return at Kempton. I don’t entirely rule out the chances of last year’s winner Quite By Chance bouncing back from late season disappointment as he did last season. So for me it’s Marracudja from Quite By Chance with Little Pop outdueling Somchine for third.

Ascot 15.35 Gr 3 Hcap Chase 570 (154) 24f gd – 18 Run

Last year – 570 (153) gd 11 ran
Antony 11/1 6-10-1 (128) by 4.5l from Junction Fourteen 16/1 7-11-6 (147)
Fourth Act 20/1 7-10-10 (137) was 7.55l 4th

Braqueur D’Or 6-10-11 (139)
11 Oct Cl 3 Hcap Chase (125 u) 24f gd/fm Lud 6/1 F 7l 1/13 off 129
Midfield, headway 6th, led after 4 out, shaken up and came clear from 2 out, readily
Seems to have found his feet over fences since coming over from the Curtis yard in late April and was winning for the third time when upped to 24f for the first time at Ludlow last month; has been raised 10lbs for that facile win and is making his debut at this level, but conditions would seem to suit.
Plus: going (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (24 days); career best lto;
Minus: class (?); course (?); up 10lbs; up 2 classes;
Verdict: (50) improving young chaser and a definite contender.
Antony 7-10-4 (132)
06 Oct Cl 2 Hcap Chase (117 d) 21.5f gd Font (143) 10/1 14l 3/8 off 134
Dropped out in last place, headway 11th, went close 3rd before 3 out, soon ridden, no impression when bumped next, weakened and jumped left last
Runs off only a 4lbs higher mark than when taking last year’s renewal from Junction Fourteen (+19) with Fourth Act (+9) in 4th; didn’t show much in 2 subsequent starts but made a promising return at Fontwell last month when going well before the lack of a run began to tell and ultimately finishing 3rd to Go Conquer (+1); re-opposes on 9lbs better terms and will be well suited by today’s conditions.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); recent outing (29 days); down 2lbs;
Minus: up in class; 372 days since last form run;
Verdict: (38) took this on second run back last term and a contender to complete the double.
Emerging Force 7-10-11 (139)
08 Apr List Hcap Chase (394 u) 25f gd Aint (148) 8/1 31l 5/16 off 142
Prominent, led 4th, headed 10th, tracked leaders, ridden along and outpaced before 5 out, weakened 3 out
Winner over hurdles and won his first 2 starts when put to fences last year; ran well for a long way at Cheltenham last December until losing 2 places on the run-in to finish 4/6 to Singlefarmpayment; off then until finishing 5/16 in the Betway HCh at Aintree in April when Sizing Codelco ran away from the field; likely to have much more to offer as this only his 5th start over fences (10th under rules overall) and ground conditions should suit.
Plus: going (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); down 3lbs;
Minus: class; course (?); 369 days since last form run;
Verdict: (37) has scope for improvement in second season over fences and a possible contender.
Thomas Brown 8-10-10 (138)
07 Apr Gr 3 Hcap Chase (674 u) 21f gd Aint (157) 20/1 35.75l 14/29 off 140
Mid-division, lost place 15th
Continued his habit of starting the season with a bang when winning over 20f at Aintree last November; didn’t fare so well when upped to Gr 3 HCh on his 3 subsequent starts, however, the final back at Aintree in April when down the field to Ultragold (-4) with the badly hampered Go Conquer (-5) last of the finishers; may bounce back after another break and only 1lb higher than for last year’s return, but all form has been shown on softer ground.
Plus: class (F); distance (W); course (F); trainer (14d); trainer (C); down 2lbs;
Minus: going; 365 days since form run;
Verdict: (35) best when fresh, but has yet to win at this level and may prefer softer ground, so not the strongest of contenders.
Go Conquer 8-11-0 (142)
06 Oct Cl 2 Hcap Chase (117 d) 21.5f gd Font (143) 4/1 2l 1/8 off 135
Jumped boldly, made all, drew clear 2 out, 6 lengths ahead last, pushed along and always holding closing rival after
Third-year chaser who was twice placed over C&D here last season (also fell at the 1st); showed Aintree effort in April to be all wrong when scoring at Fontwell on his return last month; has been raised 7lbs for that and may have difficulty confirming Fontwell running with a fitter Antony on 9lbs worse terms and over the latter’s preferred distance, as GC has yet to prove he can win over today’s longer distance, or for that matter at this level; however, still relatively unexposed over fences making his 11th start and not entirely discounted.
Plus: going (W); distance (F); course (F); form run lto (29 days); career best lto;
Minus: class; up 7lbs; up in class;
Verdict: (34) looks to be still improving over fences and a possible contender.

Recent records suggest we’re looking for a 6 to 9yo carrying no more than 11-3 and no longer than 12/1 in the betting. So I pass on Carole’s Destrier who runs off a 6lbs higher mark than when runner-up in the Hennessy on his return last year. I’m not too keen on the chances of last year’s runner-up Junction Fourteen, either, despite running off a 6lbs lower mark, or Fourth Act who was 4th. However, Dark Flame may not be without a chance if staying the trip. The first to be crossed off my shortlist is Thomas Brown who despite being a force fresh has to prove he can handle the faster ground and contend at this level. The other four prove harder to sort though as there’s a question against each of them. Can Go Conquer confirm Fontwell running with Antony over the .longer trip, is Emerging Force an emerging force over fences, and can Braqueur D’Or continue the improvement he’s made of late now that he’s bumped up in class? I feel it’s between this four and hope I get it right by going for Braqueue D’Or from Antony with Emerging Force getting the better of Go Conquer.

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