Turkey or Chicken? Weekend best bets leading upto xmas
Posted: Sat Nov 18, 2017 12:31 am
Looking to pull out some profit on the higher grade races leading upto xmas , shall share my thoughts on such races and staking (£10-£100 ) even if anti post wagered.
18/11/2017
cheltenham
BetVictor.com Handicap Chase (13:50)
Minella Rocco £10 each Way 9/2 with Bet 365 Never a horse i would want to steam into first time out regardless off competition so the run last time was nowhere near as bad as i thought it would be, I would be more inclined to lump on this horse in the spring but i do feel the likely decent ground and that return run out of the way then this is a risk i will be prepared to take as really will nit have to be at best to finish in the top 3 and could easily take this event if fully on song.
BetVictor Gold Cup Handicap Chase (14:25)
Already took 6/1 about tully east with william hill for £15 each Way , i try to forget about wagered already placed as serevs zero purpose to look again once money is down but need to mention it here for clarity
Whilst i am fine with my initial position , it did come form a system. Looking at the race in detail i do feel there is a decent value wager here in Ballyalton £10 Each Way 11/1 paying 5 places with paddy power This horse doesnt have the sexiest profile for this race but i do feel if getting act together this horse could be well enough in to make a big impact in a tough race. Whilst 10yr old this horse has low mileage and already made the trip to the track 5 times winning twice and a stand out 2nd in the Neptune behind Faugheen the machine. this horse has had its problems but that is factored in the price and i do feel we will see at least one mistake from this horse and hope its at an early stage and wakes in up as can lose concentration at times.
Kk Lexion £30 Each Way 6/1 with william hill The favorite was good last time but this will be overbet and i want to try to get it beat. KK is a real good horse when on song and should not be overlooked from this mark, The key here in my mind is the switch to Adrian Heskin. The jockey has ridden the horse four times winning twice and the largest losing margin of the losses was 4.5L . This likely will be run at a steady pace and this could play into this horses hands stepping upto this trip for the first time, Expecting a nice waiting ride and should see out this runs strong enough.
Lingfield
Betway Churchill Stakes (14:45)
Boynton £60 win 5/2 William Hill Whilst this horse looks a little disappointing overall i do feel there has been excuses each of the last two starts when beaten behind likely second favourite Victory bound there were genuine excuses and last time it could be argued was more frustrating but i feel this race will really show if this horse is on its way back or should be shelved? I hope this likely stronger pace will allow WB to settle the horse and a fair-strong tempo will help this horse out to be able to sustain a run as its not innate ability that gets this horse beaten but mental attitude. There is also the added bonus that once the horse settles WB will have options to either just sit off or gradually work up and take them along from half way although ideally it would be the first scenario.
19/11/2017
Ivanovich Gorbatov £15 Each Way @16/1 AP This is a system bet i needed to include , i will likely have a look at this races this evening at some point without trying to notice if that bet is a return or not , im hoping it has been pulled as its not a horse i would like to
try to analyse as it will make a fool out of the best of us
18/11/2017
cheltenham
BetVictor.com Handicap Chase (13:50)
Minella Rocco £10 each Way 9/2 with Bet 365 Never a horse i would want to steam into first time out regardless off competition so the run last time was nowhere near as bad as i thought it would be, I would be more inclined to lump on this horse in the spring but i do feel the likely decent ground and that return run out of the way then this is a risk i will be prepared to take as really will nit have to be at best to finish in the top 3 and could easily take this event if fully on song.
BetVictor Gold Cup Handicap Chase (14:25)
Already took 6/1 about tully east with william hill for £15 each Way , i try to forget about wagered already placed as serevs zero purpose to look again once money is down but need to mention it here for clarity
Whilst i am fine with my initial position , it did come form a system. Looking at the race in detail i do feel there is a decent value wager here in Ballyalton £10 Each Way 11/1 paying 5 places with paddy power This horse doesnt have the sexiest profile for this race but i do feel if getting act together this horse could be well enough in to make a big impact in a tough race. Whilst 10yr old this horse has low mileage and already made the trip to the track 5 times winning twice and a stand out 2nd in the Neptune behind Faugheen the machine. this horse has had its problems but that is factored in the price and i do feel we will see at least one mistake from this horse and hope its at an early stage and wakes in up as can lose concentration at times.
Kk Lexion £30 Each Way 6/1 with william hill The favorite was good last time but this will be overbet and i want to try to get it beat. KK is a real good horse when on song and should not be overlooked from this mark, The key here in my mind is the switch to Adrian Heskin. The jockey has ridden the horse four times winning twice and the largest losing margin of the losses was 4.5L . This likely will be run at a steady pace and this could play into this horses hands stepping upto this trip for the first time, Expecting a nice waiting ride and should see out this runs strong enough.
Lingfield
Betway Churchill Stakes (14:45)
Boynton £60 win 5/2 William Hill Whilst this horse looks a little disappointing overall i do feel there has been excuses each of the last two starts when beaten behind likely second favourite Victory bound there were genuine excuses and last time it could be argued was more frustrating but i feel this race will really show if this horse is on its way back or should be shelved? I hope this likely stronger pace will allow WB to settle the horse and a fair-strong tempo will help this horse out to be able to sustain a run as its not innate ability that gets this horse beaten but mental attitude. There is also the added bonus that once the horse settles WB will have options to either just sit off or gradually work up and take them along from half way although ideally it would be the first scenario.
19/11/2017
Ivanovich Gorbatov £15 Each Way @16/1 AP This is a system bet i needed to include , i will likely have a look at this races this evening at some point without trying to notice if that bet is a return or not , im hoping it has been pulled as its not a horse i would like to
try to analyse as it will make a fool out of the best of us