Turkey or Chicken? Weekend best bets leading upto xmas

Any comments on today's racing. Please don't just put in selections ... please add some reason why you think a runner will win
LoveWinners
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Re: Turkey or Chicken? Weekend best bets leading upto xmas

Postby LoveWinners » Wed Mar 14, 2018 1:13 pm

continuing the thread today with 3 races to cover.

130 ballymore - Black Op £40 EW @10/1 B365 1/4 odds +60

I dont see what this horse has done wrong to be such a price? the fav is the talking horse but there could be some issues with the track here but i can see why the layers will not want to risk this horse but ill happily oppose it at the price


210 RSA Ballyoptic £45 EW @16/1 b365 1/4 odds -90
This looks the value in the race and i am very happy with the price.

250 Coral Cup - £100 Win William Henry @9/1 BF sports Book -100

Continuing from the coral cup breakdown i had 3 i fancied in varying values but WH looks to be the one from Bara and Le Breuil
Last edited by LoveWinners on Thu Mar 15, 2018 11:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.

LoveWinners
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Re: Turkey or Chicken? Weekend best bets leading upto xmas

Postby LoveWinners » Thu Mar 15, 2018 1:23 pm

Things slightly got away from me yesterday but looking to spring back in action today in what will be the defining day as to whether its a good or bad festival in 2018 as 3 big bets and a smaller one.

130 JLT Terrefort, £90 Win 7/2 b365 -90

This looks the right race for the henderson runner who continues to surprise as looking at this horse in the past i am surprise i am betting this horse in this race but the numbers tell me its the correct thing to do.


2:10 Pertemps, Louis' Vac Pouch £30 EW 10/1 b365 -60

I would have been all over this horse but the stable are in bad shape and its gone from a potential big bet to a small ew play.


2:40 Ryanair, UDS. £400 win my banker 8/11 everywhere , (sunbets would only allo me £50 at 4/5 again showing their pointless existence) -400
On not only best but even 5th best form this horse will win so its just a case of avoiding accidents as this should be 1/2 shot.

330 Stayers Lami Serge £120 EW 11/1 B365 -240
This has always been my bet and i have more on it from last week although it was a concern that henderson mentioned the owners wanting to school this over the larger ones.
Last edited by LoveWinners on Thu Mar 15, 2018 11:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.

LoveWinners
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Re: Turkey or Chicken? Weekend best bets leading upto xmas

Postby LoveWinners » Thu Mar 15, 2018 11:15 pm

Well its all gone pete tong and as harry says if your bankers lose then you are in trouble, i have given up on the idea of making this a profitable week and the patience to sit out the first day has not been rewarded at all. Tomorrows action is tough but i thought today would have been easy (funny old game) it seems as if if you have runners who are not trained by mullins, elliot or hendo then you are in trouble but overall the casual punters should be well ahead so thats one good thing. I have taken passive lines tomorrow and altered my strategy to try to nick a bit back on the final day although likely just have to put a line through the meet.




130 Triumph Apple's Shakira £60 win 7/4 -60

Already proven at the track and that is a big plus about a horse who has look very professional so far, I was a little surprised about Mr Adjudicator price but felt i wouldnt want to add it in a book as with any downswing you simply add pressure on yourself.

14:10 County hurdle. Flying Tiger £40 Ew 12/1 skybet paying 6 places -80

Flying Tiger has always been the top of my list for this race and fingers crossed runs the race i expect.



2:50 Albert bartlett Chris's Dream 8/1 and Poetic Rhythm 14/1 £30 win both @ ladbrokes -60

A race where i would happily take on the market with less flashy types. Chris's Dream is on the up and is a very likeable type and has a good profile for this race. PR has some strong form and is the type to be suited by this gruelling test.


Definitly Red £40 ew 10/1 (already have mite bite with a £50 free bet) sky bet 5 1/5

I think these terms are very favourable for a horse with such a consistent record overall and despite my reservations about the class of the horse (2 runs in grade1's and 2 poor efforts) i do feel it will meet the requirements of the place side of the investment and could just run a big one if a few do not run their races.




530 Grand Annual Bouvreuil £42.5 Ew @14/1pp and Eastlake £20 EW @33/1 b365 both playing 5 places.

I have taken the left field approach with 2 JP runners who have yet to hit any kind of form but likely lined up for the race. Bouvreuil has yet to hit any form of note but looks to have been lined up for this by the prep runs he has a similar run up as when 3rd in the plate last year and likely been freshened up for this race i would have preferred quicker ground though but im not too worried about the trip as this is always run at a quick tempo and i expect sam to sit out the back build the confidence on the way round and let this horses stamina kick in late and fast i also have set an IR play for this horse as i think it will go big in running and i'd like to set up a profitable scenario with a get out clause.

Eastlake is very left field but i find it interesting that this horse has been given a wind op and break for what is likely last season and final tilt at a race he has run with credit in before there another who will be held onto and with his boy booked to take the ride it would be a great thing to witness should the old boy turn back the clock as the raw ability is already in the book with a reduced mark with a capable claimer this horse could just manage a placed effort in an open race.
Last edited by LoveWinners on Fri Mar 16, 2018 3:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.

martinkil
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Re: Turkey or Chicken? Weekend best bets leading upto xmas

Postby martinkil » Fri Mar 16, 2018 10:08 am

I'll be looking to trade Eastlake from it's current 44 on betfair looking for a sub 10 trade back - and I'll have a little EW "just in case" as well. In the last two year in the race he's traded from 17.8 into 4.0 and 37.7 into 3.7 - so a 44 into 2.2 looks on the cards :)

LoveWinners
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Re: Turkey or Chicken? Weekend best bets leading upto xmas

Postby LoveWinners » Fri Mar 16, 2018 1:32 pm

Good luck Boss lets hope for a good result in the finale :D

bootsnspurs2017
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Re: Turkey or Chicken? Weekend best bets leading upto xmas

Postby bootsnspurs2017 » Fri Mar 16, 2018 2:30 pm

LoveWinners wrote:Well its all gone pete tong and as harry says if your bankers lose then you are in trouble, i have given up on the idea of making this a profitable week and the patience to sit out the first day has not been rewarded at all. Tomorrows action is tough but i thought today would have been easy (funny old game) it seems as if if you have runners who are not trained by mullins, elliot or hendo then you are in trouble but overall the casual punters should be well ahead so thats one good thing. I have taken passive lines tomorrow and altered my strategy to try to nick a bit back on the final day although likely just have to put a line through the meet.




130 Triumph Apple's Shakira £60 win 7/4

Already proven at the track and that is a big plus about a horse who has look very professional so far, I was a little surprised about Mr Adjudicator price but felt i wouldnt want to add it in a book as with any downswing you simply add pressure on yourself.

14:10 County hurdle. Flying Tiger £40 Ew 12/1 skybet paying 6 places

Flying Tiger has always been the top of my list for this race and fingers crossed runs the race i expect.



2:50 Albert bartlett Chris's Dream 8/1 and Poetic Rhythm 14/1 £30 win both @ ladbrokes

A race where i would happily take on the market with less flashy types. Chris's Dream is on the up and is a very likeable type and has a good profile for this race. PR has some strong form and is the type to be suited by this gruelling test.


Definitly Red £40 ew 10/1 (already have mite bite with a £50 free bet) sky bet 5 1/5

I think these terms are very favourable for a horse with such a consistent record overall and despite my reservations about the class of the horse (2 runs in grade1's and 2 poor efforts) i do feel it will meet the requirements of the place side of the investment and could just run a big one if a few do not run their races.




530 Grand Annual Bouvreuil £42.5 Ew @14/1pp and Eastlake £20 EW @33/1 b365 both playing 5 places.

I have taken the left field approach with 2 JP runners who have yet to hit any kind of form but likely lined up for the race. Bouvreuil has yet to hit any form of note but looks to have been lined up for this by the prep runs he has a similar run up as when 3rd in the plate last year and likely been freshened up for this race i would have preferred quicker ground though but im not too worried about the trip as this is always run at a quick tempo and i expect sam to sit out the back build the confidence on the way round and let this horses stamina kick in late and fast i also have set an IR play for this horse as i think it will go big in running and i'd like to set up a profitable scenario with a get out clause.

Eastlake is very left field but i find it interesting that this horse has been given a wind op and break for what is likely last season and final tilt at a race he has run with credit in before there another who will be held onto and with his boy booked to take the ride it would be a great thing to witness should the old boy turn back the clock as the raw ability is already in the book with a reduced mark with a capable claimer this horse could just manage a placed effort in an open race.


I do like Definitly Red but have noticed that he's often been "hampered with" which I take as doesn't like being bumped into - hard to avoid in big fields

LoveWinners
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Re: Turkey or Chicken? Weekend best bets leading upto xmas

Postby LoveWinners » Tue Jul 31, 2018 1:22 pm

Goodwood Vintage stakes

Dark Vision £200 Win @7/2

This is a runner who should really appreciate this step up in trip and the york form is solid enough to what originally worried me.

More to follow

LoveWinners
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Re: Turkey or Chicken? Weekend best bets leading upto xmas

Postby LoveWinners » Tue Jul 31, 2018 1:53 pm

Goddwood Lenox stakes

D'bai £30 EW @13/2


Not seen at best last time but should be able to run his race in what looks a muddling pace which should keep this horse in his comfort zone for longer and could go well in a non vintage renewal where in previous years there have been some strong stand out bets but that isn't the case this year.

Goodwood - Goodwood cup


Stradivarius £150 Win @8/11

This is for value as i believe this is the best stayer around and i would have this horse a 1/2 shot.



Goodwood 4:45 HC
Duke Of Firenze £60 EW @13/2

This old warrior could just be peaking to play a big hand in this race as the set up looks near perfect set up.

LoveWinners
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Re: Turkey or Chicken? Weekend best bets leading upto xmas

Postby LoveWinners » Wed Aug 01, 2018 2:26 pm

profit yesterday , lets see what today brings?


goodwood - sussex stakes

without parole £150 win 7/4 (saver) beat the bank £30 win 11/2


This is a cracking renewal and should live up to expectations which hasn't been the case in a few races t=so far this season . Without parole should take the beating here and i expect this horse to run to a rating of 122+ there is another who i have a keen liking too and that is Beat the bank who is a very likeable racehorse who runs well outside group 1 company but could be worth chancing at the price but only in a supporting role.


Goodwood HC 16:45

Magnolia springs £75 win 11/4

Return to handicap company will suit this horse who wasn't totally disgraced on group company last time.The race two back hasn't worked out very well hence why i would take a passive line with this runner.


goodwood 17:55

Gossiping £25 ew 25/1

Only 2lb higher than when winning a class 2 handicap over CD and is gradually working down to a mark that will become competitive again, the price versus a bunch of unexposed runners is generous as i had this one a 14/1 shot

LoveWinners
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Re: Turkey or Chicken? Weekend best bets leading upto xmas

Postby LoveWinners » Thu Aug 02, 2018 12:20 pm

well yesterday was a wash and the less said about shanes ride in the last the better...

Goodwood HC 150

Bathsheba Bay £40 EW @ 7/1

Lurking at the foot of the weights looks a real lively contender in this open enough race. I marked up the run last time and i expect this horse to out run the generous enough odds for what i had as a 5/1 shot.


goodwood - lillie langtry

Precious Ramotswe £50 EW @6/1 (365)

Has a bit to find with GG but back up in trip i see this as some nice value to hit the frame atleast.


Goodwood - Nassau Stakes

Billesdon Brook £100 win @8/1


I find it interesting that this horse runs the 10f in a small field as i believe this could be near perfect for the horse. I am prepared to forgive the last run as i feel there where a few things that can be excused and at the price ill happily take the chance in what i thought was a 4/1 shot although


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