Saturday 18th November

Any comments on today's racing. Please don't just put in selections ... please add some reason why you think a runner will win
Devasteve
Posts: 546
Joined: Fri Jan 16, 2015 8:29 am

Saturday 18th November

Postby Devasteve » Sat Nov 18, 2017 11:38 am

Much as feared last Saturday with the Flat ending like a damp squib. Cheltenham to provide us with some quality racing this weekend, although not always the easiest place to find winners. So fingers crossed!

Cheltenham 13.50 Gr 3 Hcap Chase 285 (166) 27.5f gd/sf – 9 Run

Last year – 285 (158) gd/sf 17 ran
Viconte Du Noyer 20/1 7-10-13 (148) by 1l from Warrantor 14/1 7-10-0 (130)
Minella Rocco 11/2 F 6-11-9 (155) was 1.1l 3rd

Vicente 8-10-10 (150)
22 Apr Gr 3 Hcap Chase (1224 d) 32f gd Ayr (148) 9/1 Jt F 0.25l 1/30 off 146
Held up, headway before 4 out, chased leader next, ridden and kept on well from last to lead close home
Won a NCh at this meeting in 2015 on his second run back, but generally takes a while to come to hand and his last 2 successes have been in the 2015 & 2017 Scottish Nationals; had Benbens (-16) 2.25l back in 3rd in April and having been raised 4lbs meets him on 3lbs worse terms today.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer 14d; trainer (C); form run lto;
Minus: up 4lbs; 210-day break;
Verdict: (54) not without chances off this mark, but usually needs a while to get going and likely the Aintree or Ayr Nationals are long-term targets; not the strongest contender today.
Minella Rocco 7-11-12 (166)
19 Oct Gr 3 Chase (210 d) 25f sf Punch (165) 7/4 F 10.25l 4/7 off 165
Held up, jumped slightly left 4th and bumped rival, disputed 5th at halfway, took closer order behind leaders from 4 out, ridden in 4th after next and no impression on leaders between last 2, kept on one pace run-in
17 Mar Gr 1 Chase (3275 u) 26.5f gd Chelt (170) 18/1 2.75l 2/13 off 156
Held up, outpaced after 3 out, headway between last 2, went 4th soon after last, finished strongly, snatched 2nd final stride, not threatening to reach winner
Recorded a career best by a large margin when runner-up in the Gold Cup here in March sporting first-time cheek-pieces along with his usual tongue-tie; rather disappointed at Punchestown last month when cheek-pieces were missing, and they’re missing again today; runs off a 11lbs higher mark than when 3rd in last year’s renewal and will need to come on for his opener.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (C); recent outing (30 days);
Minus: 246 days since last form run; up 1lb;
Verdict: (41) chance if repeating Gold Cup running, but tough ask off current mark; another contender with questions.
Perfect Candidate 10-10-12 (152)
28 Oct Cl 2 Hcap Chase (313 d) 25f gd Chelt (154) 28/1 26.75l 10/16 off 154
Tracked leaders, ridden after 17th, weakened after next
12 Feb Cl 2 Hcap Chase (188 d) 24f sf Exe (150) 12/1 5l 1/12 off 150
Made all, stayed on gamely from 4 out, ridden out
Has never won at this level but still useful on his day and won 3 times last season, the latest a veteran’s HCh at Exeter in February; was obviously not expected to do much on return here last month (28/1), but likely to show improvement in time and may still add to his record when able to dominate against lesser animals.
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent outing (21 days); down 2lbs;
Minus: up in class; 279 days since last form run;
Verdict: (41) likely to improve for his opener, but also likely to find those in better shape, so not the strongest contender.
Doing Fine 9-10-10 (140)
28 Oct Cl 2 Hcap Chase (313 d) 25f gd Chelt (154) 15/2 5.75 3/16 off 137
Held up towards rear, nudged along from 12th, headway after 17th, ridden after 3 out, stayed on from next, went 3rd run-in
Recorded career best when winning over 28f here in April and showed something approaching that form on second run back last month when 3/16 to Scottish National runner-up Cogry with Perfect Candidate (+17) down the field; runs off a 3lbs higher mark due to being out of the handicap, but not without chances.
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (C); form run lto (21 days);
Minus: 3lbs out of handicap; up in class;
Verdict: (39) yet to win at this level, but not without chances of making the frame, a contender.
Three Faces West 9-10-7 (147)
14 Dec Cl 2 Grad Ch (120 d) 23.5f gd/sf Newb (152) 7/2 13l 1/6 off 147
Made all, in control when pecked 3 out, easily
Very lightly raced, which suggests problems, but no disputing the authority with which he won his last 2 starts before the turn of the year; has been off a long time of course, but if retaining that form must be in with a chance.
Plus: going (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto;
Minus: class (?); distance (?); course (?); up in class; 339-day break;
Verdict (36) difficult to know how fit he’ll be for his return, but certainly seemed to have ability when last seen and a possible contender.

I wouldn’t rule out the chances of Premier Bond either, particularly on his running in the Kim Muir here in March, although less impressed by his antics in the Scottish National. The winner that day, Vicente has now won it twice, but usually takes time to get going so I’ll pass on him today. I’m also inclined to pass on Perfect Candidate who as a 10yo is not getting any younger in a race usually dominated by younger horses (9 of last 10 winners have been younger than 10yo). I have a few questions about the fitness of Three Faces West and thus will go Minella Rocco from Doing Fine and Three Faces West.

Cheltenham 14.25 Gr 3 Hcap Chase 911 (154) 20.5f gd/sf – 18 Run

Last year – 911 (157) sf 17 ran
Tarquin De Seuil 8/1 9-11-11 (156) by 0.25l from Village Vic 20/1 9-11-10 (155)

Foxtail Hill 8-11-5 (147)
28 Oct Cl 2 Hcap Chase (313 u) 16f gd Chelt (158) 15/2 0.25l 1/15 off 140
Wore earplugs, jumped boldly, made all, kept on bravely under pressure when strongly challenged after last, held on, very game
Improved performer over fences last year winning a Gr 3 over C&D here in January, although jumping errors saw him depart at the 8th in a race won by Tully East at the Festival here in March; down the field when dropped back to 16f in the Red Rum at Aintree’s National meeting, but ended the season by finishing runner-up to Henryville over C&D here in April; recorded a career best when just holding off Le Prezien (+4) over 16f here on his return last month; has been raised 7lbs for that and meets LP on 1lb worse terms, but will likely be the more appreciative of today’s trip.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer 14d; trainer (C); form run lto (21 days); career best lto;
Minus: up 7lbs; up in class;
Verdict: (60) fit and in form, a contender with conditions and trip all suiting.
Le Prezien 6-11-8 (150)
28 Oct Cl 2 Hcap Chase (313 u) 16f gd Chelt (158) 5/2 F 0.25l 2/15 off 144
Mid-division, headway after 10th, disputed 2nd after next, ridden for strong challenge after last, kept on, held close home
Winner at 20f over hurdles, but has to date seemed better suited by around 16f over fences; nevertheless, only made the top third in the Grand Annual her in March; equalled career best when just denied by Foxtail Hill (-4) over 16f on his return here last month and meets the winner on 1lb better terms today; however, not sure that he favoured by the longer trip, not having won beyond 17.5f over fences.
Plus: class (W); going (F); distance (F); course (W); trainer 14d; trainer (C); form run lto (21 days);
Minus: up 6lbs; up in class; up in distance;
Verdict: (46) decent effort on return, but hard to see him reversing running with FH over today’s distance and not the strongest contender perhaps.
Romain De Senam 5-11-3 (145)
21 Oct Cl 2 Hcap Chase (158 d) 21f gd/sf Strat (150) 4/5 F 0.25l 1/6 off 139
Held up, headway 3 out, chased leader approaching last, ridden to lead flat, stayed on
Runner-up in the Fred Winter over hurdles here in 2016, but already promising to be better over fences in his second season over the larger obstacles; was a ready winner in recording a career best over 19f at Chepstow on his return last month and then just 6 days stayed on to get the better of Burtons Well under a lbs penalty over 21f at Stratford under similar conditions to today; has been raised a further 6lbs for that but as a 5yo looks likely to have more to give on his 10th start over fences; bit you as a 5yo, although Nicholls won with the similarly aged Caid Du Berlais in 2014.
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (W); trainer 14d; trainer (C); form run lto (28 days);
Minus: course (?); up 6lbs; up in class;
Verdict: (45) making chasing debut at Cheltenham but improving sort and not without a chance in conditions that should suit.
Kylemore Lough 8-11-12 (154)
07 Apr Gr 1 Chase (1123 u) 20f gd Aint (166) 16/1 17.5l 4/9 off 155
Chased leaders, 2nd soon after 4 out, one pace from next
10 Dec Gr 3 Hcap Chase (570 u) 21f sf Chelt (158) 9/1 2.6l 5/16 off 156
Tracked leader, challenging when stumbled badly 3 out, ridden to lead next, edged left and headed after last, no extra and lost 3 places close home
Won 5 of first 6 starts over fences in the 2015/16 season when with Kerry Hill, although was given stiffer targets in his 4 starts last term; nevertheless, put up a carrier best effort when 5/16 to Froden over this C&D last December, although not matching that in his final 2 starts for the stable; has since moved to the Fry yard and having been dropped yet another lb begins his new career back in hcap company; with the yard in fine form he’s likely fit enough to feature, plus wears a first-time tongue-tie; however, the record of top weights suggest he’s up again it (0/3/12 with half failing to finish).
Plus: (W); going (W); distance (W); course (F); trainer 14d; trainer (C); down 1lb; down in class;
Minus: 344 days since last form run; 225 days since last run; record of top weights;
Verdict: (39) must have a chance on last December’s form if fit for stable debut, but perhaps the frame the best he can hope for.
Ballyalton 10-11-1 (143)
29 Oct Cl 2 Hcap Hdl (172 u) 20f gd/sf Aint (142) 12/1 10l 6/15 off 138
Held up, headway approaching 3 out, chased leaders 2 out, driven and weakened before last
15 Mar 2016 List Nov Hcap Chase (370 u) 20.5f gd/sf Chelt (140) 12/1 1/20 off 140
Travelled strongly most of way, in touch, took closer order 4 out, challenged going well 3 out, led next, ridden and narrowly headed last, rallied well under pressure to regain lead final 120yds, driven right out
Looked the part in winning at the 2016 Festival here, but rather disappointed in the Mildmay Novices and missed the whole of last season; showed promise till showing need of run on hurdles last month and should now be fit enough to return to fences on only 3lbs higher than when winning here.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer 14d; form run lto (20 days Hd);
Minus: not run over fences since 2016;
Verdict: (39) fitness over fences to be taken on trust, but stable in good form so not entirely ruled out as a contender.
Tully East 7-11-6 (148)
18 Oct Hd (110 d) 16f yl/sf Punch (145) 7/1 22.25l 4/8 off 138
Held up, slight mistake 1st, mistake in rear at 2nd, hit 4th, last at halfway, took closer order 3 out, pushed along in 6th after next and no impression on leaders, went moderate 4th run-in and kept on one pace
14 Mar List Nov Hcap Chase (399) 20.5f gd/sf Chelt (142) 8/1 1.25l 1/20 off 138
Mid-division, hampered 9th, smooth headway to track leaders after 3 out, led soon after last, ran on well, ridden out
Promising first year over fences winning the Close Brothers NHCh over C&D here at the Festival in March; runs off a 10lbs higher mark today, but has had a spin over hurdles to blow the cobwebs away and can’t be without a chance; however, Tranquil Sea in 2009 was the last Irish trainer winner, and before that you have to go back to 1980!
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (C); recent outing (31 days);
Minus: up in class; 10lbs above last winning mark; 249 days since last form run;
Verdict: (37) could be fancied on win here in March, but is 10lbs higher and Irish have poor record in this race, so not the strongest contender perhaps.

Starchitect and Double Treasure are others that I would not entirely dismiss, although the former is 0/3 in this class and 0/2 over fences at Cheltenham, while the latter is making his debut at this level and has never faced more than 7 opponents before. Cutting my shortlist down to size, Nicholls’ Le Prezien is the first to go being yet to win beyond 17.5f. Tully East is the next, as he run off 10lbs higher than when winning here in March, plus Irish-trained horses have a poor record in the race. Kylemore Lough is obviously a smart performer, but first time out off top weight may just be beyond him, although he could well make the frame. None of the remaining trio are without a question, Ballyalton on grounds of fitness, Romain De Senam being only a 5yo, and Foxtail Hill being more experienced than most past winners. However, having had yesterday’s winner Doitforthevillage behind him on his return, I’m going for Foxtail Hill from Ballyalton with Romain De Senam and perhaps Kylemore Lough contesting the minor placings.

Cheltenham 15.00 Listed Hcap Hurdle 171 (150) 25.5f gd/sf – 9 Run

Last year – 171 (152) sf 13 ran
Anteros 20/1 8-10-2 (125) by 7l from Corrin Wood 8/1 9-10-0 (123)

Dell’ Arca 8-11-12 (150)
09 Nov Cl 2 Hcap Hdl (97 d) 24f gd/sf Newb (142) 7/1 6l 1/12 off 140
Mid-division, headway 3 out, went left 2 out but soon leading, in command when went left last, hung left but stayed on well, pushed out
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (9 days);
Minus: up 10lbs; up in class;
Verdict: (54) best he’s run for some years lto, but now up 10lbs to career high mark, which hampers chances of being strongest contender.
Thomas Campbell 5-11-10 (148)
28 Oct Cl 2 Hcap Hdl (156 d) 24f gd Chelt (149) 5/2 F 2.25l 1/17 off 138
Travelled well, tracked leaders, led approaching last, stayed on well, ridden out
Dell’ Arca (+2) was 5.5l 4th;
Plus: going (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (21 days)
Minus: class; up 10lbs; up in class;
Verdict: (50) meets Dell’ Arca on the same terms as on their returns here last month and of the pair looks the more like to handle the 10lbs rise in the mark; a contender.
Anteros 9-10-4 (128)
28 Oct Cl 2 Hcap Hdl (156 d) 24f gd Chelt (149) 16/1 Fell last off 128
Held up towards rear, ridden after 3 out, staying on into 9th but no threat when fell last
Runs off a 3lbs higher mark than when taking last year’s renewal; fell at last in Thomas Campbell’s race here last month, but is 10lbs better off with both Thomas Campbell and Dell’ Arca; not without chances.
Plus: class (W); going (F); distance (W); course (W); recent outing (21 days);
Minus: 372 days since last form run;
Verdict: (34) last year’s winner and only 4lbs higher this time round, a possible contender again.

Rushed on this so may have erred in not examining the chances of Rocky’s treasure and Kk Lexion any closer. However, I fear the market may well be right with Thomas Campbell, although way too short for me, so last year’s winner Anteros looks more attractive to make the frame. Thus it looks like Thomas Campbell from Anteros and Dell’ Arca to me.

martinkil
Posts: 3417
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Re: Saturday 18th November

Postby martinkil » Sun Nov 19, 2017 12:03 am

A nice 14-1 CSF with - "Thomas Campbell from Anteros"


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