Sunday 19th November

Any comments on today's racing. Please don't just put in selections ... please add some reason why you think a runner will win
Devasteve
Posts: 546
Joined: Fri Jan 16, 2015 8:29 am

Sunday 19th November

Postby Devasteve » Sun Nov 19, 2017 11:13 am

Thanks Martin, at least there was some light at the end of the tunnel, although to be fair I hadn't envisaged the ground deteriorating that much. Let's hope I've made due allowance today.

Cheltenham 15.00 Gr 3 Hcap Hurdle 570 (163) 16.5f sf – 14 Run (13 at best)

Last year – 570 (153) sf 16 ran
North Hill Harvey 6/1 5-11-0 (141) by 0.5l from Modus 5/1 6-10-10 (140)

Flying Tiger 4-10-4 (141) N/R
11 Nov Gr 2 Hcap Hurdle (342 d) 15.5f sf Winc (149) 4/1 4.75l 3/7 off 141
Held up, took closer order 4th, tracked winner 2 out, soon ridden, not pace to challenge, no extra run-in
Handles hv ground as narrowly beaten in a 3yo Hdl at Dieppe last year; surprised many when taking the Fred Winter here in March when Nietszsche (-4) was only 0.5l back in 3rd with Project Bluebook (+4) 5l further back in 4th; ran well on return in recording a career best when less than 5l 3/7 to London Prize (-7) at Wincanton last weekend and could possibly reverse the running on 5lbs better terms today.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (8 days);
Minus:
Verdict: (50) has shown he can win at this level and in the conditions and a contender if over last weekend’s exertions.
Tigris River 6-10-13 (150)
03 Aug Gr A Hcap Hurdle (1540 u) 16f yld Galway (155) 5/1 0.25l 1/20 off 140
Raced in mid-division, closer after 3 out to chase leaders, went 4th after next, soon ridden in 3rd, went 2nd inside final furlong, strongly ridden to lead close home
Showed plenty when staying on strongly when putting up a career best to take the Galway Hurdle in August with Project Bluebook (-4) over 13l back in 6th; runs off a 10lbs higher mark here though and has not won on ground more demanding than the yld he experienced that day.
Plus: class (W); going (F); distance (W); trainer (14d); form run lto;
Minus: course (?); up 10lbs; 108-day break;
Verdict: (47) question about going and may not be the strongest of contenders in today’s conditions on first visit to Cheltenham.
London Prize 6-10-2 (139)
11 Nov Gr 2 Hcap Hurdle (342 s) 15.5f sf Winc (149) 4/1 3l 1/7 off 134
Tracked leaders, led approaching 2 out, kept on well, ridden out
Has turned out to be a versatile performer, twice winning on the Flat this past summer before finishing runner-up in the Cesarewitch; then showed his Imperial Cup win at Sandown in March was no fluke by equalling his career best in taking his second Graded HHd at Wincanton last weekend when Flying Tiger was around 5l back in 3rd; carries a 5lbs penalty for that success, which means there shouldn’t be much between them; however, is making his Cheltenham debut today.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); form run lto (8 days);
Minus: 5lbs penalty;
Verdict: (39) a year older and more experienced than most past winners, but a contender nonetheless.
Jenkins 5-10-0 (137)
16 Apr Cl 4 Nov Hdl (39 d) 16f gd Ffos Las (120) 1/4 F 3l 1/8
Tracked leader, ridden approaching 2 out, led between last 2, hung right flat, ran on
Henderson entry who has been odds on for his past 4 starts, but only managed to win 2 of those and was 19l behind Elgin (-3) at Kempton on Boxing Day; must surely be better than he’s shown to date and starts the new season with a hcap debut at this level.
Plus: going (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto;
Minus: class (?); course (?); up 3 classes; 217-day break;
Verdict: (36) impossible to evaluate his chances on what he’s shown so far, but improvement likely I guess.
Mohaayed 5-10-0 (137)
22 Apr Gr 2 Hcap Hurdle (598 u) 16f gd/sf Ayr (155) 5/1 Jt F 2.3l 3/16 off 135
Held up, headway 3 out, ridden after next, chased leading pair run-in, kept on, not pace to challenge
Put up a career best when 3rd in the Scottish Champion Hurdle at Ayr in April with London Prize (0) a similar distance back in 7th; followed up by taking a Cl 4 Intermediate Hurdle at Market Rasen in May before departing for his summer break; showed his ability to handle the course by finishing a very respectable 7/25 to Arctic Fire in the County Hurdle here last March; has won on sf and has scope for improvement on return for last year’s winning combination.
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (W); course (F); trainer (14d); form run lto;
Minus: up 3 classes; 191-day break;
Verdict: (35) fitness has to be taken on trust but has the profile of past winners and a contender.

With my main hope Flying Tiger now a N/R it’s time for a rethink. Past trends tell us that what we’re looking for is lightly-raced 4/5yo with good form lto and quoted at 12/1 or less, plus preferably ran here at the March Festival. One breaking most of those trends is The New One who is giving 12lbs or more to the others, but even though he acts on heavy ground I do feel that there’s sure to be at least one of these that will show the improvement to deny the old-timer. Of my shortlist, while Tigris River was impressive at Galway he’s 10lbs higher here and more exposed than ideal, plus I’m not sure the heavier ground will suit, and this is not a race in which Irish-trained horses have scored well. So it’s the lower-weighted ones that look the most likely, although I suspect Scudamore may put up some extra pounds on Misterton and the Ellison stable is too cold for me to fancy Nietzsche. Jenkins I can’t honestly pick – he may make the major improvement required, but I can’t have him at that short a price. Thus I’m left London Prize and Mohaayed and while the former won at Wincanton last weekend, he was behind the Skelton-trained animal at Ayr in April. So for me it’s Mohaayed from London Prize with perhaps Jenkins making the frame.

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