Saturday 23rd May

[Devasteve]

Decent weekend last week, so fingers crossed it might roll over to this. However, I've had to look at my first 3yo races of the year, so that might not happen.

Haydock 14.00 Cl 2 Hcap 129 (100) 16f gd/sf – 16 Run (15 at best)

Last year – 162 (99) gd 11 ran
Noble Silk (91.3) 10/1 5-8-13 (91) Dr 7 by 2l from Nearly Caught (89.4) 8/1 4-9-8 (99) Dr 5

Noble Silk (96.6/103): won last year’s renewal off a 3lb lower mark and ran well in the Northumberland Plate and at Goodwood off 95 on fast ground; finished down the field in the Cesarewitch, however, and not seen since an outing at Wolverhampton in early November; has gone well fresh on occasions in the past, but suspect connections are hoping for drying ground.
Plus: class; going (?); distance (?); course; trainer form;
Minus: up 1lb; 197-day break;
Verdict: doesn’t meet all the criteria to win today’s race, but a possible contender if the ground dries to gd.
Nearly Caught (93.9/104): unable to reach the winner when 2l runner-up to Noble Silk (-9) in last year’s renewal, subsequently finishing midfield in the Ebor and 6/33 in the Cesarewitch on only other starts last term; was closing at the finish on his return over 14f at Chelmsford at the start of the month and likely to be fitter today; runs off the same mark today and is 4lbs better off with Noble Silk on last year’s running; stable has started the season in decent form.
Plus: class; going; distance; course; trainer form; recent form run (17 days);
Minus:
Verdict: meets all the criteria to win today’s race and looks to be a contender.
Gabrial’s King (91.8/106): winner over the extended 16f at York when with Simcock last season and only joined the Fahey yard in April; has since put in a pair of decent efforts behind Trip To Paris at Ripon and Cheater, the latest when 4/17 in the Chester Cup where he perhaps didn’t quite stay the trip; has been raised 3lbs for that, but improvement likely with this yard, although his high draw is no help to a horse that has to be covered up.
Plus: going (?); distance; trainer form; recent form run (17 days); drop in trip;
Minus: class; course (?);
Verdict: doesn’t meet all the criteria to win today’s race, but a contender.
Rite To Reign (81.3/87): improved throughout last season and after being narrowly beaten over 14f here in mid-October, got off the mark on turf over 16f on his final start at Newmarket at month’s end; given a blow on the AW at Chelmsford in April but ran on well late on to finish 4/15 to Lycidas at the York opener this month; raised 1lb for that and is up in class; but likely more to come and no surprise were he to run well.
Plus: going; distance; course (?); trainer form; recent form run (9 days);
Minus: class; up 1lb; up in class;
Verdict: doesn’t meet all the criteria to win today’s race, but a possible contender.
William Of Orange (74.4/90): looks to be a typical Prescott inmate, closing his 3yo career by twice winning over 14f here in September; didn’t enjoy the best of runs on his return over 14f at Salisbury at the start of the month, but ran on strongly to claim runner-up spot behind the easy winner; sire stats suggest he’s likely to appreciate the step up in trip and the stable is in good form.
Plus: distance; course; trainer form; recent run (20 days);
Minus: class (?); going (?); up in class;
Verdict: doesn’t meet all the criteria to win today’s race, but another likely contender. (N/R)

Competitive race to start off with and I wouldn’t be surprised whichever of my quintet won. The one with the hardest task perhaps is last year’s winner Noble Silk as all his hcap form has been on gd or faster. Thus the red pen reluctantly draws a line through his chances today. No such troubles for last year’s runner-up Nearly Caught though and with him also having the better of the weights this time he has to be considered. Gabrial’s King will find the drop back in trip to his liking, but he doesn’t need to see much daylight and thus his high draw could be problematical. Rite To Reign and William Of Orange (now N/R) both look to be horses to keep an eye on as 4yos, but it might just be a little early in the season for either to make a statement at this level. Thus my tentative selections would be Nearly Caught from Gabrial’s King and perhaps Rite To Reign.

Haydock 14.35 Cl 2 3yo-Hcap 373 (101) 8f gd/sf – 12 Run

Last year – 436 (95) sf 13 ran
Chatez (94.2) 7/1 3-9-2 (91) Dr 6 by 0.5l from Zarwaan 8/1 3-9-6 (95) Dr 11

Mutasayyid (87.0/100): made debut over 7f at Leicester last August and went on to take a 7f mdn at Ascot the following month; rather slowly away on his hcap debut over 7f at Newmarket at the start of the month, but recovered to just hold on for the win; has been raised 5lbs for that and should confirm the running with Flashy Memories who was somewhat adrift in 4th; nevertheless, Hanagan has preferred the mount on Mutarakez.
Plus: class; distance; trainer form; recent form run (21 days);
Minus: going (?); course (?); up 5lbs;
Verdict: doesn’t meet all the criteria to win today’s race, but a contender.
Billy Slater (86.0/93): still a maiden, but ran better than might have been expected on his return when runner-up to Carry On Deryck (+14) at Chester who had the benefit of a couple of previous starts; interesting to see how he goes and may be the better of the Fahey pair, but nothing to really hang your hat on as yet.
Plus: class (?); going (?); distance (?); course (?); trainer form; recent form run (16 days);
Minus: up 2lbs
Verdict: doesn’t meet the criteria to win today’s race and not the strongest contender
Moonlightnavigator (81.3/97): won 2 of 5 starts as a 2yo and returned in good form to make all over 8f at Musselburgh in early April; has not been seen since and only raised 5lb which doesn’t seem excessive.
Plus: class; distance; trainer form;
Minus: going (?); course (?); 5-day break; up 5lbs;
Verdict: doesn’t meet all the criteria to win today’s race, but a possible contender,
Mutarakez (76.6/97): made debut over 6f at Nottingham in early October before going on to take a 7f mdn at Doncaster at month’s end; was a decisive winner on his return over 8f at Sandown last month, although again edged right late on; handicapper was obviously impressed, as he’s raised him 10lbs; nevertheless, Hanagan prefers him to Mutasayyid and improvement can be expected.
Plus: class; going; distance; trainer form; recent form run (29 days);
Minus: course (?); up 10lbs;
Verdict: doesn’t meet all the criteria to win today’s race, but a contender from this yard.
Salateen (76.4/92): obviously highly thought of as holds an entry in the in St James Palace Stks, but that seems a little ambitious as it took him 3 starts to get off the mark at Chester as a 2yo; did finish in midfield in the Acomb Stks at York and won a Doncaster nursery before finishing 3/6 in the Royal Lodge Stks at Newmarket in late September; starts this season off a 2lb higher mark and while the opposition is not as strong he may just need the race.
Plus: class; going; course (?); trainer form; down in class;
Minus: distance; up 2lbs; 238-day break;
Verdict: doesn’t meet all the criteria to win today’s race and not the strongest contender.

My first look at the 3yos this year and as usual there’s not a lot to go on. However, I do like them to have had a start, so bye bye Salateen, plus a win on their record, so by bye Billy Slater. That leaves me with the 3 Ms and while I may be wrong to pass on the likely favourite Mutarakez, I’m going for Mutasayyid from Moonlightnavigator to relegate him to 3rd.

Goodwood 14.55 Cl 2 3yo-Hcap 485 (101) 7f gd – 11 Run

Last year – 323 (107) sf 10 ran
Wee Jean (90.7) 8/1 3-8-2 (88) Dr 6 by 0.1l from Penny Drops 6/1 3-8-1 (87) Dr 4

Mister Universe (93.4/104): collected a 6f mdn at York from 4 starts as a 2yo; needed the run when L/11 to Moonlightnavigator at Musselburgh on his return in April and was still short of his best when weakening in the last half furlong to finish 5/9 to Mutakarez over 8f at Sandown later in the month; dropped 2lbs, but more importantly dropped back to today’s trip, he ran out an impressive winner at Ascot lto, running on his own between the two groups; has been raised 6lbs for that, but could well continue his improvement now he’s found the winner’s enclosure again.
Plus: class; going; distance; trainer form; recent form run (15 days);
Minus: course (?); up 6lbs;
Verdict: doesn’t meet all the criteria to win today’s race, but looks a strong contender.
Muffri’Ha (76.4/85): won a 7f mdn on gd/sf at Chester on her second outing as a 2yo last September, although limitations exposed in Listed company at Newbury the following month; showed her effectiveness on fast ground on her return though, only just being held by Simply Shining over 8f at Thirsk at the beginning of the month; has been raised 5lbs for that and drops back in trip today, plus is up 2 classes; however, further improvement likely.
Plus: distance; trainer form; recent form run (21 days);
Minus: class (?); going; course (?); up 5lbs; up 2 classes;
Verdict: doesn’t meet all the criteria to win today’s race, but a possible contender.
King To Be (72.3/93): just the 2 starts as a 2yo, finishing lame after his Newbury start in October; got off the mark over C&D here on his return at the start of the month and not disgraced when 5/17 to Udodontu at York 11 days later; runs off the same mark today and has scope for further improvement.
Plus: going; distance; course; trainer form; recent form run (10 days);
Minus: class (?); up in class;
Verdict: doesn’t meet all the criteria to win today’s race and not the strongest contender.
My Dream Boat (68.2/83): showed promise in 3 starts as a 2yo when with McCain; got off the mark on his return on first start for new yard in a 7f hcap at Doncaster last weekend; has been raised 8lbs for that, but improvement likely.
Plus: going (?); distance; trainer form; recent form run (7 days);
Minus: class (?); course (?); up 8lbs; up 2 classes;
Verdict: doesn’t meet all the criteria to win today’s race, but a likely contender.
Mullionheir (63.8/78): showed little as 2yo, but has won all 3 starts this year (2 on AW); up 11lbs for latest success on Lingfield’s turf course, plus is up 2 classes and up in trip.
Plus: going; recent form run (15 days);
Minus: class (?); distance (?); course (?); up 11 lbs; up 2 classes; up in trip;
Verdict: doesn’t meet the criteria to win today’s race and an unlikely contender.

I worry when one horses seems to stand out, as usually it means I’ve missed something. However, Master Universe looks better than the rest and should win from Muffri’Ha and My Dream Boat.

Goodwood 16.05 Cl 2 Hcap 194 (99) 14f gd – 12 Run (11 at best)
Weights raised 1lb

Last year – 162 (95) sf 6 ran
Ted Spread (90.1) 7/1 7-8-12 (89) Dr 7 by 0.1l from Debdebdeb 11/8 F 4-8-13 (90) Dr 10

Quest For More (89.0/103): good strike rate (4/5/12) and career best when denying Fire Fighter over 16f at Ascot in October; returned in fine form, only just failing to run down Astronereus over 12f at Newmarket earlier in the month; has been raised 6lbs for that, but could still be improving.
Plus: class (?); going; distance; trainer form; recent form run (20 days);
Minus: course (?); up 6lbs;
Verdict: doesn’t meet all the criteria to win today’s race, but looks a strong contender.
Oasis Fantasy (83.8/93): won over 12f here last June and decent effort over 12f at Ascot lto when when 3/11 to Penhill; raised 2lbs for that and is up in class, plus never tried beyond 12f before; however, has scope to improve over new trip.
Plus: class (?); going; course; trainer form; recent form run (14 days);
Minus: distance (?); up 2lbs; up in class; up in trip;
Verdict: doesn’t meet all the criteria to win today’s race, but a contender if staying the trip.
Grumeti (79.8/93): winner over both fences and hurdles, plus has a pretty decent flat record (3/5/12); had not run on flat in 3 years, but shaped by no means badly when 5/9 to Penhill at Ascot, but has a little to find with Oasis Fantasy.
Plus: class (?); going; course; recent run (14 days); down 3lbs;
Minus: distance (?);
Verdict: doesn’t meet all the criteria to win today’s race and not the strongest contender.
Royal Warranty (74.7/87): just the 7 starts split between turf and AW and has been progressive in the main; appeared to stay when 3/7 to Taws over 17f at Bath last October and didn’t run badly there on his return when 2/4 to Elysian Fields over 11.5f; has been raised 2lbs for that and is not only up in trip but also 2 classes;
Plus:
Minus: class (?); going (?); distance (?); course (?); up 2lbs; up 2 classes; up in trip;
Verdict: doesn’t meet the criteria to win today’s race and not a strong contender.

A race to be wary of, as there seems to be some noise for Boite who has shown form over hurdles this spring and now returns to the flat where he has a poor record. With Grumeti also in the race there could well be a strange result. My suggestion would be Quest For More from Oasis Fantasy, but they’re leading the market and may not offer much value. So could be a race to pass.