Saturday 25th November

Any comments on today's racing. Please don't just put in selections ... please add some reason why you think a runner will win
Devasteve
Posts: 546
Joined: Fri Jan 16, 2015 8:29 am

Saturday 25th November

Postby Devasteve » Sat Nov 25, 2017 12:13 pm

The least said about last Sunday the better! It could be a similar story today and before anyone asks, yes, I did chicken out of the Stayers Handicap Hurdle at Haydock; I much prefer chases to hurdles in any case, and a 16-runner affair over 23f on heavy ground at Haydock with a number making their handicap debut is not my idea of fun!

Haydock 13.50 Cl 2 Hcap Hurdle 313 (149) 19f hv – 9 Run

Last year – 219 (145) hv 6 ran
El Terremoto 9/4 F 4-10-4 (126) by 2.75l from Massini’s Trap 7/1 7-10-12 (136)

Verni 8-11-2 (139)
17 Mar Cl2 Hcap Hdl (407 u) 20.5f gd Chelt (145) 25/1 2.25l 2/23 off 135
Tracked leaders, every chance after 2 out, soon ridden, kept on but no extra from last
Beaten 7l when runner-up to Clyne (+7) over 15.5f here on hv at the corresponding meeting last year but went on to take a Cl 3 over 19f at Taunton in February and closed out his season by recording a career best when runner-up in the 20.5f Martin Pipe Conditional’s HHd at Cheltenham in March; not seen since and runs off a 4lbs higher mark today but won on his return last year; nevertheless, has something to find with Clyne on last November’s meeting.
Plus: class (F); going (F); distance (W); course (F); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto; career best lto;
Minus: up 4lbs; 253-day break;
Verdict: (50) lightly raced for his age and has scope for further improvement, so a contender considering he can go well fresh.
Clyne 7-11-12 (149)
21 Oct Cl 2 Hcap Hdl (283 d) 16f sf Ffos Las (160) 2/1 Jt F 0.75l 2/6 off 147
Tracked winner, ridden approaching 3 out, pressed winner after 2 out, stayed on gamely under pressure flat, just held
Twice a winner here last season (once on hv) and runner-up to The New One (+8) in the Champion Hurdle Trial in January; finished runner-up to the same opponent on the same terms on his return in the Welsh Champion Hurdle at Ffos Las last month; has been raised 2lbs for that, but proven over C&D and in the conditions; 5lbs claiming conditional takes the ride for the first time; trainer won 2014 renewal with On Tour.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (C); form run lto (35 days);
Minus: up 2lbs;
Verdict: (48) improving sort who has scope to show even more this season and with his rider claiming 5lbs a definite contender.
Value At Risk 8-11-8 (145)
11 Nov Cl 2 Hdl (282 u) 20f sf Aint (167) 1.5l 2/3 off no rating
Tracked leaders, close 3rd 2 out, every chance last, ridden and alongside winner early on run-in, stayed on but held by winner
Didn’t do too well over fences last season winning only 1 of 5, but not disgraced on his return to hurdles at Aintree a fortnight ago, although never getting to the winner; has won on sf ground, but untried on hv and yet to win in hcap company.
Plus: class (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (14 days);
Minus: going (?); course (?); no hcap win;
Verdict: (42) decent Aintree effort on return to hurdles, but unproven on the ground, so a contender with questions.
Diamond Fort 5-10-8 (131)
04 Nov Cl 3 Hcap Hdl (55 s) 19.5f sf Weth (132) 5/1 3.75l 1/11 off 121
Held up in mid-division, headway to track leaders 7th, led soon after 3 out, jumped left last, driven out
Just the 4 starts over hurdles but has won the last 2 both over 19.5f, at Chepstow in April and at Wetherby on his return earlier in the month; has been raised 10lbs for that, but runner-up Raven’s Tower has since come out and won; has scope for improvement though on only 5th start and showed he handled the ground when 3/12 in a 20f Hereford MHd in February.
Plus: going (F); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (21 days);
Minus: class (?); course (?); up 10lbs; up in class;
Verdict: (41) improving young hurdler and a possible contender although up in class.
El Terremoto 5-11-5 (142)
21 Oct Cl 3 Hcap Hdl (95 d) 18.5f gd/sf Strat (130) 5/2 7l 1/8 off 130
Made all, not fluent 4th, shaken up and came clear last, ran on well
Took last year’s renewal on hv as a 4yo, so ground conditions hold no terrors; was subsequently 3rd to Clyne (+11) in the fog here in December, so maybe has something to find there; nevertheless, recorded a career best on his return when coming well clear of favourite Capeland at Stratford last month; has been raised 12lbs for that, however, which means he’s 16lbs higher than when taking last year’s renewal, which looks a big ask.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (35); career best lto;
Minus: up 12lbs; up in class;
Verdict: (39) last year’s winner in similar conditions, but not the strongest contender off today’s mark.

A couple of others that might warrant consideration are Limited Reserve and Chti Balko, although I’m not sure the former is up to a slog in the Haydock mud over this trip, while the latter is stepping up in trip off a stiff enough mark early in his career. Last year’s winner El Terremoto is the first to be dropped from my shortlist off this mark, while Value At Risk looks to have too many questions to answer on his return to hcap company over hurdles. Of the remaining trio, Diamond Fort is stepping up in class in his young career and may find this a bit too much of an ask. Thus I’m going for Clyne from the returning Verni with Diamond Fort best of the rest.

Ascot 15.15 Cl 2 Hcap Chase 626 (165) 17f gd/sf – 8 Run

Last year – 626 (160) gd/sf 9 ran
Sire De Grugy 8/1 10-11-12 (160) b y 1.5l from Quite By Chance 4/1 7-10-9 (143)
Vaniteux 7/4 F 7-11-6 (154) was 5l 3rd
Upsilon Bleu 20/1 8-10-9 (143) was 13.6l 6th

San Benedeto 6-11-4 (157)
07 Nov Gr 2 Hcap Chase (372 u) 17.5f sf Exe (162) 8/1 2.25l 2/8 off 155
Tracked leaders, tracked winner approaching 4 out, ridden after 3 out, mistake next, kept on gamely behind idling winner run-in but always being held
Excellent start to novice career last season winning 6 of his 11 starts, including the Gr 1 Maghull at Aintree in April; not disgraced in either of his starts this term, the latest being when runner-up to stable companion Politologue in the Haldon at Exeter earlier in the month under today’s rider; has been raised 2lbs for that, but likely has far more improvement in him and down in class today; has won on both gd and sf so ground should not be a problem.
Plus: class (W); going (F); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (18 days); down in class;
Minus: up 2lbs;
Verdict: (53) improving young chaser who looks to be a strong contender with conditions to suit.
Sire De Grugy 11-11-12 (165)
Runs off a 5lbs higher mark than when taking last year’s renewal in similar conditions from Quite By Chance (-15); followed up by being runner-up in the Tingle Creek at Sandown in early December, but UR at the 2nd in the Desert Orchard chase at Kempton over Christmas and was not seen thereafter; had a run out over hurdles last month when 3/6 to The New One and Clyne in the Welsh Champion Hurdle at Ffos Las, showing his need of the race when weakening from 2 out; a grand servant for the stable, but will turn 12yo at year’s end and may well be vulnerable to younger horses.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W);
Minus: 358 days since last form run; 11yo;
Verdict: (43) gallant veteran, but likely to find it tougher this year and not the strongest contender.
Quite By Chance 8-10-7 (146)
04 Nov Listed Hcap Chase (342 d) 17f gd Ascot (148) 7/1 7l 2/10 off 144
Tracked leading pair, went 2nd 3 out, led before 2 out going well, headed soon after 2 out and quickly outpaced, kept on
Runner-up to Sire De Grugy (+15) in last year’s renewal having previously won the Byrne Chase over C&D here off 135; season largely went downhill thereafter; returned in the Byrne Chase again this year, but off a 9lbs higher mark could only finish runner-up; has been raised a further 2lbs though and is now 11lbs above his last winning mark, although 4lbs better off with Sire De Grugy this year.
Plus: class (W); going (F); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (21 days); down in class;
Minus: up 2lbs;
Verdict: (42) overall not weighted as well as last year and not the strongest contender perhaps.
Upsilon Bleu 9-10-3 (142)
04 Nov Cl 3 Hcap Chase (117 d) 16.5f hv Ascot (142) 8/1 3l 2/8 off 142
Held up in touch, headway and close up after 3rd, led 4 out (usual 5 out), driven and headed between last 2, rallied, kept on same pace run-in
Conditions suit, and runs off the same mark as when winning a similar race at Doncaster in January; return on hv here earlier in the month gave indication of his well-being and runs off 1lb lower mark than when down the field in last year’s renewal.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); form run lto (21 days);
Minus: course; up in class;
Verdict: (35) looks the best handicapped of last year’s runners and a possible contender.

The Irish contender Dandridge could perhaps be fancied on his 4th in the Grand Annual at Cheltenham last March, but has given no indication since that he’s likely to reproduce that form. Meanwhile, of the quartet that contested last year’s renewal, Upsilon Bleu may be the best handicapped, although it is hard to pass on the winner Sire De Grugy. However, to me the standout appears to be the 6yo San Benedeto who is taken to improve Nicholls’ record in the race from Upsilon Bleu and perhaps Sire De Grugy.

Haydock 15.35 Cl 2 Hcap Chase 313 (144) 25.5f hv – 10 Run (9 at best)

Last year – 188 (141) hv 6 ran
Three Faces West 3/1 8-11-6 (135) by 13l from Firebird Flyer 8/1 9-11-12 (141)

Catamarin Du Seuil 5-10-10 (128)
15 Nov Cl 3 Hcap Chase (78 d) 24.5f hv Ayr (133) 2/1 0.05l 1/6 off 126
Not fluent on occasions, in touch, effort after 3 out, kept on well from last to lead near finish
French import and recorded his first UK success over fences at the third attempt when ploughing through the mud at Ayr 10 days ago; has only been raised 2lbs for that and could well come on for his first success.
Plus: going (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (10 days);
Minus: class; course (?); up 2lbs; up in class;
Verdict: (42) improving young chaser perhaps and a contender on Ayr form if sufficiently recovered from the exertions.
Chase The Spud 9-11-7 (139)
18 Mar Listed Hcap Chase (703 u) 33.5f sf Uttox (144) 11/1 1.5l 1/20 off 130
Held up, headway 19th, blundered and lost place next, soon outpaced, mistake 4 out, rallied next, chased leader and mistake last, stayed on under pressure to lead near finish
Has a better record since being put to marathon distances and duly landed the Midlands National in a career best when last seen in March; has been raised 9lbs for that and drops back a long way in trip today, but can go well fresh, so not entirely discarded on his return.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (F); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto; down in class; career best lto;
Minus: up 9lbs; back in trip;
Verdict: (39) will enjoy ploughing through the mud, but not sure this is a sufficient test of stamina for him to be the strongest contender.
Lessons In Milan 9-11-2 (134)
22 Apr Gr 3 Hcap Chase (1224 u) 32f gd Ayr (148) 40/1 5.5l 5/30 off 135
Held up, headway and in touch before halfway, ridden before 3 out, kept on same pace from next
Won on hv ground over hurdles and while he is 0/8 over fences has gone close on occasions and ran by no means badly when last seen in the Scottish National back in April; runs off 1lb lower mark today, but fitness a key.
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (F); trainer (14); trainer (C); form run lto; down 1lb; down in class;
Minus: course (?); 0/8 over fences; 217 days since form run;
Verdict: (36) another that come on over fences this year but with questions over fitness not the strongest contender.
Robinsfirth 8-11-10 (142)
28 Oct Cl 2 Hcap Chase (313 u) 25f gd Chelt (154) 5/1 F 9.5l 4/16 off 142
Mid-division, headway after 3 out, soon ridden, awkward last, stayed into 4th run-in
Just the 4 chase starts to date but won on sf at Exeter in January and likely won have gone close in his next start at Chepstow later in the month but for UR when slightly hampered; promising reappearance at Cheltenham last month and hopes he can build on that with first-time tongue-tie.
Plus: class (F); distance (F); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (28 days);
Minus: going (?); course (?);
Verdict: (31) another promising chaser who could well make his mark this term, a contender if tongue-tie brings desired improvement.

There might only be nine runners left, but it’s not easy to draw a line through any, as even the aging Cloudy Too has course form in these conditions. All in all, I’m not at all sure that the likes of Henri Parry Morgan, Ballymalin, Sir Ivan or Baywing mightn’t upset the apple cart, but banking on fitness being important I’m going for Catamarin Du Seuil from Robinsfirth with Chase The Spud holding off Lessons In Milan for the minor placings.

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