Saturday 2nd December

Any comments on today's racing. Please don't just put in selections ... please add some reason why you think a runner will win
Devasteve
Posts: 546
Joined: Fri Jan 16, 2015 8:29 am

Saturday 2nd December

Postby Devasteve » Sat Dec 02, 2017 11:53 am

Into the final month of the year with more races than you can shake a stick at, so I just settled for three Newbury chases. By the way, a prior warning that I'll be missing in action next weekend as I'm moving house and it depends on how long it takes to get the cable connection for television/internet reconnected.

Newbury 13.20 Cl 2 Hcap Chase 250 (144) 22.5f gd/sf – 12 Run

Last year – 250 (140) gd/sf 16 ran
O Maonlai 12/1 8-11-6 (134) by 5l from Warriors Tale 10/1 7-11-2 (130)
Little Jon 25/1 8-11-8 (136) was 31l 7th
Gentleman Jon 16/1 8-11-8 (136) was 49.5l 14th
On Tour 8/1 8-11-12 (140) was 144.5l 15th and last to finish (broke blood vessel)

On Tour 9-11-8 (140)
11 Nov Cl 2 Hcap Chase (464 u) 20f sf Aint (150) 4/1 3l 1/12 off 135
Held up in rear, pushed along and headway 3 out, 6th 2 out, ridden and closing in 4th approaching last where good jump and landed running, ridden to lead halfway up run-in, came clear, on top at finish
Again ran well at Aintree on his return and this time putting in a career best to win over 20f on sf; has been raised 5lbs for that and thus runs off the same mark as when he broke a blood vessel to be last of the finishers in last year’s renewal; no form beyond 20f though.
Plus: class (W); going (F); form run lto (21 days);
Minus: distance (?); course; up 5lbs; trainer form (14d 1/31);
Verdict: (43) promising return but goes best fresh and yet to win beyond 20f, so a contender with questions.
O Maonlai 9-11-8 (140)
Has finished runner-up off 137 and winner off 134 on return in the last 2 renewals and although he runs off 6lbs higher this time round it might be the best time to catch him; a well beaten 5/13 over 20f here when last seen in March, but definitely likes the course.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); down 3lbs;
Minus: 372 days since last form run;
Verdict: (39) looks like the time to catch him, but tougher off 6lbs higher and not the strongest contender this year.
Crosspark 7-11-4 (136)
09 Nov Cl 3 Hcap (78 d) 20f gd/sf Newb (136) 4/1 6l 4/10 off 136
Tracked clear leaders, closed on leaders after 12th, ridden in close 2nd when mistake 2 out, no extra final 150yds
Twice a winner over fences on softer ground last season and a reasonable return over 20f here last month; likely to have come on for that, but needs to improve to feature at this level.
Plus: going (F); distance (W); course (F); form run lto (23 days);
Minus: class; up in class;
Verdict: (39) has to prove ability at this level, but a possible contender,
Warriors Tale 8-11-11 (143)
Won over 20f here twice last March and is only 7lbs than on the second occasion, and useful rider claims 5lbs of those; however, did disappoint on final start at Ayr and faulty jumping let him down in race won by On Tour (-13) at Aintree on his return; however, 10lbs better in with On Tour and no surprise were he to bounce back here.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent outing (21 days);
Minus: up in class; 251 days since last form run;
Verdict: (36) if surroundings refresh memory could be the better of the Nicholls’ pair and a possible contender.
Gold Present 7-11-10 (142)
Not run since falling in the Topham Trophy at Aintree in April, but before that had been runner-up at Cheltenham; won first-up last season and stable in form, so there should be no doubts on fitness score.
Plus: class (F); going (F); trainer (14d); trainer (C); down in class;
Minus: distance; course (?);
Verdict: (33) yet to win beyond 19f, but a possible contender if staying the trip on his return.

Bouvreuil could be interesting at the top of the weights, but does have a poor record to date and I can’t see him as Nicholls’ main hope. That appears to lie with Warriors Tale who appears to like Newbury. So too does last year’s winner O Maonlai , who also runs his best races fresh. However, he’s 6lbs higher this time round and could only finish runner-up off 3lbs higher the previous year. I don’t think Crosspark has shown the ability to be a force at this level, while Gold Present is making his return and is another to prove the distance suits. So too does On Tour who runs off the same mark as when breaking a blood vessel in last year’s renewal, although he looked to be staying well enough when winning at Aintree on his return. Thus the three that I like best are Warriors Tale, O Maonlai and On Tour. Tricky to get the order right, but I’d go for On Tour from Warriors Tale and O Maonlai.

Newbury 15.00 Gr 3 Hcap Chase 1424 (165) 26f gd/sf – 21 Run

Last year – 1139 (166) gd/sf 19 ran
Native River 7/2 F 6-11-1 (155) by 0.5l from Carole’s Destriet 25/1 8-10-8 (148)
Double Ross 50/1 10-10-6 (149) was 5.5l 3rd
Vyta Do Roc 8/1 7-10-3 (143) was 9l 6th

American 7-11-4 (157)
18 Mar Cl 2 Nov Hcap Chase (188 u) 24f sf Uttox (148) 2/1 F 8l 1/9 off 148
With leaders and always going well, went upsides 11th, led after 14th, went clear 4 out, shaken up approaching last, stayed on
Just the 3 starts over fences last season but won them all culminating in a career best when beating Rock The Kasbah (-6) and Crosspark (-12) at Uttoxeter in March; starts this season off a 9lbs higher mark but there’s surely much improvement to come as he steps up to this level for the first time (has won a listed novice); can go well fresh and stable in fine form at present.
Plus: going (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto;
Minus: class (?); course (?); 259-day break; up in class; up 9lbs;
Verdict: (49) young improving chaser and has to be considered a contender.
Total Recall 8-10-8 (147)
08 Oct Gr A Hcap Chase (510 u) 24f sf Lim (145) 2/1 F 7l 1/ 16 off 129
Held up towards rear, slightly hampered 8th, took closer order after 3 out, travelled strongly to press leader before 2 out where led, clear last, easily
Looked a different animal when taking the Munster National on first start for Mullins back in October; runs off an 18lbs higher mark here though and even allowing for the differences across the Irish Sea, that’s a big jump, especially as Mullins is 0/16 with his chasers at Newbury.
Plus: Class (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); form run lto;
Minus: going (?); course (?); up 18lbs; trainer (C – 0/16); 55-day break;
Verdict: (43) career best at Limerick, but handicapper has had his say and looks too short a price today given trainer’s record here; not the strongest contender.
Whisper 9-11-8 (161)
13 Nov Cl 2 Grad Chase (125 d) 20.5f gd Kemp (157) 4/6 F 0.5l 1/2 off 157
Not always fluent, with leader to 12th, at least 2 lengths down and pushed along before 3 out, cajoled along to close after 2 out, led last, kept on
Had decent first season over fences winning 2 of 5 starts and finishing runner-up in both the RSA and the Mildmay novices; not fluent on return but did enough to just beat a Nicholls’ 5yo chaser who has since gone on to win; carries a 4lbs penalty today and while he won over 25f over hurdles has yet to win beyond 21f over fences.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (F); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (19 days);
Minus: course (?); up in class; 4lbs penalty;
Verdict: (42) unproven at the distance over fences but a possible contender.
Present Man 7-10-7 (146)
11 Nov Cl 2 List Hcap Chase (342 u) 25f sf Winc (154) 8/1 0.1l 1/16 off 142
Led until 4th, prominent, led 17th, stayed on gamely from 3 out, strongly pressed closing stages, held on, all out
Carries a 4lbs penalty for winning the Badger Ales at Wincanton last month on second start back under today’s rider; that was another career best and has now won half of his 10 starts over fences; was all out that day, but entitled to come on for the run and handily weighted here despite the penalty; Presenting gelding who have won twice in recent years.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (21 days);
Minus: course (?); 4lbs penalty; up in class;
Verdict: (42) may be limit of his staying powers, but a contender if staying the extra furlong.
Vyta Du Roc 8-10-1 (140)
11 Nov Cl 2 Hcap Hurdle (125 d) 24.5f sf Aint (152) 9/1 14l 5/10 off 145
Tracked leaders, pushed along 2 out, ridden before last, kept on one pace run-in
29 Apr Gr 3 Hcap Chase (844 u); 29f gd Sand (152) 6/1 0.1l 2/13 off 137
Settled in midfield, blundered 13th, 8th after 4 out, effort from next, driven and still only 6th jumping last, stayed on well flat, just failed
Runs off a 3lbs lower mark than when 6th in last year’s renewal and his mark had dropped to 137 when runner-up in the Bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown in April; decent enough effort off his higher hurdle mark at Aintree on his return last month and should be fitter for that today; nevertheless, suspect Whisper is the stable’s main hope for today.
Plus: class (W); going (F); distance (W); course (F); trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent outing (21 days);
Minus: mark 3lbs above last chase run; 217 days since last form run; return to fences.
Verdict: (37) better record over hurdles than fences and not the strongest contender.
Singlefarmpayment 7-10-8 (147)
28 Oct Cl 2 Hcap Chase (312 d) 25f gd Chelt (154) 11/2 4l 2/16 off 146
Held up towards rear, steady progress after 16th, went 2nd 2 out, soon ridden and held, hung right after last, stayed on
Promising first season over fences and only just denied when favourite for the Ultima at Cheltenham in March; very promising effort on return when runner-up to Cogry (-13) with a career-best at Cheltenham in October; raised 1lb, but at least 2lbs better off today depending how many of his 3lbs Bargary can claim on Cogry and could well come on for the outing..
Plus: class (F); going (F); distance (W); trainer (14d); form run lto (35 days);
Minus: course (?); up in class; up 1lb;
Verdict: (35) promising return and no surprise were he to turn the tables with Cogry on Cheltenham running, a contender.
Cogry 8-10-0 (139)
28 Oct Cl 2 Hcap Chase (312 d) 25f gd Chelt (154) 13/2 4l 1/16 off 133
Travelled well, always prominent, led after 3 out, clear next, in command when reached for last, stayed on well
Has shown marked improvement since being returned to chasing after the turn of the year, particularly when runner-up in the Scottish National and beating Singlefarmpayment on his return at Cheltenham in October; has been raised 6lbs for that, but Bargary aims to halve that with his claim; no logical reason for him to be around twice the price of Singlefarmpayment as the pair should finish close together;
Plus: class (F); going (F); distance (W); trainer (14d); form run lto (35 days);
Minus: course (?); up in class; up 6lbs;
Verdict: (31) confirmed improvement in Scottish National by winning on return and still a contender despite the rise in the weights.

A long shortlist as befits a race of this calibre. But what we’re looking for are horses from 6 to 8yo, with a good strike record in no more than 14 chase starts, of which preferably no more than one was a handicap. Moreover, they should have won over at least 24f and in Cl 2 or better (preferably have group form), and definitely at a LH track. Of the promising sires we should be looking at the offspring of Presenting (Pleasant Company, Present Man, Southfield Royale), Kayf Tara (Carole’s Destrier) and King’s Theatre (Regal Encore, Royal Vacation, Cogry). Of these seven, only Present Man and Cogry went forward for further examination.

In trying to pare my shortlist to size, Vyta Du Roc (better hurdler) and Total Recall (rise in weights and trainer’s poor record here) are the first to go, quickly followed by Whisper (questions on distance). Of the remaining quartet, American stands out as potentially the horse that may well be destined for greater things and he is preferred to Singlefarmpayment who is taken to reverse Cheltenham running with Cogry with Nicholls longshot Present Man also threatening the frame.

Newbury 15.35 Cl 2 Hcap Chase 250 (147) 16f.5 gd/sf – 10 Run

Last year – 219 (145) gd/sf 9 ran
Ultragold 9/2 8-10-13 (136) by 0.5l from Parsnip Pete 7/1 10-11-1 (138)

Duke Of Navan 9-11-5 (140)
11 Nov Cl 3 Hcap Chase (156 u) 16f sf Aint (140) 9/2 1.25l 3/8 off 140
Disputed lead until led on own 3 out, narrow lead 2 out, ridden and headed approaching last, kept on run-in
Won a listed HCh at Ayr in the 2014/15, but was off 2 years before being runner-up at Perth in April; under the circumstances a display on his return at Aintree last month when 3/8 to Baby King (-5); entitled to come on for that off the same terms.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); form run lto (21 days);
Minus: course (?); up in class;
Verdict: (41) appears to have held his ability and a contender if coming on for Aintree run.
Just Cameron 10-11-12 (147)
Won a Cl 2 off this mark at Wetherby in January, although out of his depth in a Gr 3 at Naas the following month; looked to need the race when 6/8 to Forest Bihan at Kelso on his return in early October.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); down 2lbs;
Minus: course (?); 55-day break;
Verdict: (40) needs to improve for season’s return and not the strongest contender.
Marracudja 6-11-6 (141)
04 Nov List Hcap Chase (342 u) 17f gd Ascot (148) 4/1 F 20l 3/10 off 141
Chased leaders, ridden and no impression 3 out, no danger after, kept on from 2 out to take 3rd near finish
Won first 2 starts when put to fences last season but has failed to add to the tally in 7 further starts; promising return when runner-up to Oliver’s Hill at Kempton in October, but was well beaten when 3/10 to Exitas at Ascot last month when Theival (+7) was a further 1l back in 4th, seemingly not appreciating the change from his normal front-running tactics.
Plus: class (W); going (F); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent outing; down in class;
Minus: course (?); 42 days since last form run;
Verdict: (39) starting to have something to prove when it comes to winning and not the strongest contender.
Overtown Express 9-11-6 (141)
Off the mark at the third attempt over fences at Warwick in January, although subsequently overmatched when L/6 in the Gr 2 Kingmaker Novice there the following month; makes his return today and improvement necessary, but at least the stable is in form.
Plus: going (F); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); down in class; down 2lbs;
Minus: class; course (?);
Verdict: (28) something to prove on return and not the strongest contender perhaps.
Baby King 8-11-0 (135)
11 Nov Cl 3 Hcap Chase (156 d) 16f sf Aint (140) 7/2 0.25l 1/8 off 132
Mid-division, tracked leaders 3 out, switched to outer and took closer order 2 out, pushed along and plenty to do in 3rd at last, ridden run in-in, strong run to lead last few strides
Has taken well to fences winning 2 of 3 and going well in the other when falling 3 out at Market Rasen in May; has been raised 3lbs for his success in a Cl 3 at Aintree on his return last month where Duke Of Navan (+5) was 1.25l 3rd; however, the pair meet on the same terms again today.
Plus: distance (W); trainer (14d) form run lto (21 days);
Minus: class; going (?); course (?); up 3lbs; up in class;
Verdict: (26) looks to be an improving sort and a definite contender.

It’s a matter of trying to find the form horses here and the only two that stick out to me are Baby King and Duke Of Navan with the latter taken to reverse Aintree running. Difficult to say much about the rest but perhaps Overtown Express will spark on his return, or perhaps Marracudja will remember what it’s all about. So Duke Of Navan from Bay King with perhaps Overtown Express edging out Marracudja for third.

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