Saturday 16th December

Any comments on today's racing. Please don't just put in selections ... please add some reason why you think a runner will win
Devasteve
Posts: 546
Joined: Fri Jan 16, 2015 8:29 am

Saturday 16th December

Postby Devasteve » Sat Dec 16, 2017 11:49 am

Let's hope the move of house means we can start off with a winning week, although I was a little disappointed by the cards. Still, fingers crossed something turns out right.

Cheltenham 13.20 Cl 2 Hcap Chase 188 (159) 16.5f sf – 8 Run (7 at best)

Last year – 188 (154) gd/sf 11 ran
Eastlake 33/1 10-11-6 (148) by 1.75l from Un Beau Roman 20/1 8-10-5 (133)

Gino Trail 10-10-12 (145)
29 Nov Cl 3 Hcap Chase (65 d) 15f sf Warw (140) 11/10 F 7l 1/4 off 140
Made all, jumped well in main, pushed clear after 3 out, mistake 2 out, kept on, comfortably
Has been consistent enough and returned to winning ways at Warwick last month when making every yard to win in comfortable fashion; has been raised 5lbs for that, which doesn’t seem excessive.
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (W); trainer (C); recent form run (17 days);
Minus: course (?); up 5lbs; up in class;
Verdict: (42) conditions will suit and a contender stepping back up in class.
Bun Doran 6-10-6 (139)
06 Apr Gr 3 Hcap Chase (506 u) 16f gd Aint (150) 6/1 F 4.75l 3/14 off 139
Tracked leaders, led 3 out, soon ridden, jumped left 2 out, edged left and headed between last 2, no extra run-in
Won over 20f at Newcastle last December, but his best effort around this trip came on his final start at Aintree in April when 3rd to Double’ Ws; Gino Trail (+6) was 7l further back; however, GT has had the benefit of a couple of runs this term.
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (F); down in class;
Minus: course (?); 254-day break;
Verdict: (31) might well need the season opener and not the strongest contender perhaps.
Theo 7-10-1 (134)
11 Sep Cl 2 Hcap Chase (158 u) 20 gd/sf Perth (149) 3/1 UR/5 off 134
Chased clear leading pair, mistake and unseated rider 1st
02 Sep Cl 3 Hcap Chase (127 u) 16.5f gd Nab (123) 7/4 21l 1/6 off 120
Settled tracking leaders, went 2nd at 8th, led going well 10th, clear and in total command 2 out, eased flat
Won first 2 starts over fences before coming to grief at Perth; has had a break since and could well have more to give; did win on sf over hurdles in Ireland, so ground should suit.
Plus: going (W); distance (W); trainer (14d);
Minus: class; course (?); 105 days since form run;
Verdict: unexposed over fences, but a contender in this field.

Tough to find any contenders here, although Gino Trail will presumably run his race. However, he does have something to find with Bun Doran on their meeting at Aintree in April. The question is how fit BD will be for his return. Thus I’m inclined to take a chance on the unexposed Theo to win from Gino Trail and Bun Doran.

Cheltenham 13.55 Gr 3 Hcap Chase 683 (155) 21f sf – 11 Run (10 at best)

Last year – 570 (158) sf 16 ran
Frodon 14/1 4-10-10 (149) by 1.5l from Aso 13/2 6-10-12 (144)
King’s Odyssey 11/1 7-11-1 (147) travelling well when falling 12th

Clan Des Obeaux 5-11-12 (155)
25 Nov Cl 2 Chase (325 u) 21.5f hv Hayd (148) 3/1 Jt F 7l 1/6 off 148
Tracked leaders, stumbled on landing 5th, went 2nd and moving upsides travelling well 3 out, led 2 out, asserted last, stayed on well to draw clear run-in
Looks promising recruit to the chasing ranks having twice been runner-up to Whisper, the latest in a match on his return at Kempton last month, the winner going on to be just denied in the Ladbroke Trophy earlier in the month; for his part, CDO went on to beat a pair of previous winners in a Graduation Chase at Haydock, storming home with some authority; has been raised 5lbs for his handicap debut, but can’t be ignored in a race where Nicholls has provided either the winner or a placed horse in 9 of the past 12 renewals.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (F); trainer (14d); trainer (course); form run lto (21 days); French bred;
Minus: up 7lbs; up in class; age;
Verdict: (56) has to give weight to the field, but claims can’t be ignored and a contender.
Splash Of Ginge 9-10-10 (139)
18 Nov Gr 3 Hcap Chase (911 u) 20.5f sf Chelt (154) 25/1 0.25l 1/17 off 134
Tracked leaders, mistake 8th, closed to lead 3 out, driven and hard pressed 2 out, 2 lengths up last, just held on
Very much an in-and-out sort, though useful on a going day as he showed when taking the BetVictor Gold Cup here last month on sf; seems very much going dependent with 5 of his 6 wins coming on sf or hv; however, has been raised 5lbs and not certain to conform that running with others that re-oppose, plus it’s almost 3 years since he showed form off this sort of mark,
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (course); form run lto (28 days);
Minus: up 5lbs; age;
Verdict: (52) chance on November run here, but not known for following up and on balance not the strongest contender.
Le Prezien 6-11-9 (152)
18 Nov Gr 3 Hcap Chase (911 u) 20.5f sf Chelt (154) 6/1 2.75l 3/17 off 150
Looked well: mistakes 1st and 2nd, well in rear, pushed along 11th, only 9th before 3 out, rapid progress on outer to chase leading pair 2 out, hard ridden and tried to close from last, no extra final 50yds
Won a Gr 2 NCh here in November last year before going on to win at Exeter; however, was only 8th in the Grand Annual and PU at Punchestown in April; just denied by Foxtail Hill (-4) over 16f here on his return in October, and then might have done better save for the jumping mistakes when 3rd to Splash Of Ginge (-16) and Starchitect (-6) here lto; meets the pair on 3lbs, and 2lbs better terms, respectively; looks a very useful second strong to Nicholls bow.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (F); course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (course); form run lto (28 days); French bred; age;
Minus: up 2lbs;
Verdict: (51) McManus entry and thus not necessarily Nicholls’ second string, a contender.
Starchitect 6-11-5 (148)
18 Nov Gr 3 Hcap Chase (911 u) 20.5f sf Chelt (154) 10/1 0.25l 2/17 off 144
Always with leaders, challenged from 3 out, on terms with winner when mistake 2 out, pecked last, kept on final 100yds and closing at finish
Just the single win in first season over fences, but has stepped up his game this time round, winning a Cl 3 HCh at Stratford on his return in November before recording a career best when only just failing to catch Splash Of Ginger (-10) here lto; meets him on 1lb better terms today and that should be more than enough to turn the tables.
Plus: class (F); going (F); distance (W); course (F); trainer (14d); trainer (course); form run lto (28 days);
Minus: up 4lbs;
Verdict: (50) likely would have won lto with 50 yards more to run and thus a strong contender to reverse the running with Splash Of Ginge.
Guitar Pete 7-10-5 (134)
18 Nov Gr 3 Hcap Chase (911 u) 20.5f sf Chelt (154) 11/1 25.5l 9/17 off 134
Badly hampered 1st and detached in last, in touch in rear by 6th but never able to become seriously involved
03 Nov List Hcap Chase (160 d) 19.5f gd/sf Weth (152) 2/1 F 7l 1/6 off 127
In touch, mistake 5th, briefly pushed along after 5 out, back on bit to track leader before 4 out, led 3 out, soon pushed along, kept on well to draw clear run-in
Smart hurdler early in career in Ireland but rather lost his way when put to fences; change of scenery has obviously peaked his interest for has shown much more for his current yard having been kept on the go throughout the summer season; thus did have fitness in hand when winning a listed HCh at Wetherby in early November, beating Sametegal with Splash Of Ginge (+11) being 27l back in 4th; had no chance lto here, as was so badly hampered by a faller at the first the rest of the field were long gone; under the circumstances did well enough to finish in 9th; although he’s 3lbs worse off with SOG than at Wetherby, he could well finish in front of him again today.
Plus: class (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); recent form run (43 days);
Minus: going; course; trainer (C);
Verdict: (33) in with a chance on Wetherby form as lto ignored, so a contender.

If past trends are anything to go on we’re looking for relatively lightly-raced chasers with good recent form, French-bred 6/7yos and Irish 8yos being preferred. Thus while Ballyalton ran well enough to finish 4th in the BetVictor he was somewhere back of the first three and as a 10yo seems less likely to figure here. I’m also passing on King’s Odyssey despite him running off a 7lbs lower mark than when falling when going well in last year’s renewal. Turning to my shortlist, I’m inclined to pass on BetVictor winner Splash Of Ginge as I feel he might struggle to confirm that running with several of those who were behind him, plus even wonder if Foxtail Hill mightn’t prove the better of the stable’s pair today. However, paring down the rest of the list is troublesome. I think Clan Des Obeaux may prove the best of the Nicholls trio, although 11-12 is a big weight for a 5yo, French-bred or not. Thus while very wary of yet another Nicholls win, I’m taking a chance on Starchitect from Guitar Pete with Clan Des Obeaux nudging out stable companion Le Prezien for the minor placings.

Doncaster 15.20 Cl 2 Hcap Chase 156 (150) 24f gd – 9 Run

Last year – 156 (141) gd 11 ran
No Duffer 9/1 9-11-10 (139) by 0/.02l from Long Lunch 14/1 7-10-12 (127)
Sego Success 11/4 F 8-11-12 (141) was 10.02l 4th

Ballybolley 8-11-12 (150)
11 Nov Cl 2 Hcap Chase (464 u) 20f sf Aint (150) 6/1 9l 3/12 off 150
Tracked leaders until went 2nd 6th, led 5 out, headed approaching 3 out, relegated to 3rd 2 out, rallied approaching last, ridden and kept on run-in
Beat Guitar Pete at Market Rasen at the end of September and not disgraced at Aintree in November either; however, now goes back up to 24f for only the second time in his career, so will have to prove the trip suits although the ground should do.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (F); trainer (14d); recent form run (35 days);
Minus: course (?);
Verdict: (44) in good form, but needs a career best over a trip he’s yet to win over, so a contender with questions.
Virgilio 8-11-9 (147)
11 Nov Cl 2 Hcap Chase (464 u) 20f sf Aint (150) 11/4 F 18l 8/12 off 149
Held up, headway on inner 4 out, driven along before 3 out, lost place 2 out, weakened before last
19 May Cl 2 Hcap Chase (139 d) 25f gd Aint (146) 9/4 F 7l 1/10 off 142
Held up, headway approaching 4 out, went 2nd before 3 out, led 2 out, asserted last, driven out and stayed on well to draw clear run-in
Grade form last season, plus impressive winner over 25f at Aintree in May, although disappointed over 20f on his return there last month; should strip fitter today though, plus ground and trip more favourable today.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); down 2lbs;
Minus: course (?); 272 days since form run;
Verdict: (42) proven at distance and likely to have come on for Aintree run, a contender
Sego Success 9-10-12 (136)
05 Oct Cl 3 Hcap Chase (78 d) 24f gd Warw (136) 4/1 2.5l 2/7 off 136
Chased leaders, went 2nd 13th, ridden before 2 out, led approaching last, headed and not fluent last, no extra towards finish
Not won since taking the 2015 renewal, but runs off a 3lbs lower mark today and 5lbs lower when 4th in last year’s renewal; fair enough return at Warwick in October and should strip fitter today.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (course); form run lto;
Minus: 72-day break; up in class;
Verdict: (42) looks well handicapped on his 2015 success here, a contender.
What Happens Now 8-10-5 (129)
17 Nov Cl 3 Hcap Chase (132 u) 25f gd/sf Chelt (134) 6/1 4.8l 7/15 off 130
Tracked leader until hit 3 out, soon ridden, still disputing 8 length 2nd at the last, no extra run-in
Decent efforts in amateur hcap chases at Cheltenham the last twice and now steps up to this level off 1lb lower mark, although is 7lbs higher than his October win there.
Plus: going (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); recent form run (29 days); down 1lb;
Minus: class (?); course (?); up in class;
Verdict: (35) untried at this level, but a possible contender with ground and distance suiting.
Kilcrea Vale 7-11-1 (139)
Twice a winner in NCh last season and runner-up at Haydock in May; looked in need of the race on his return at Ascot last month; first try beyond 20.5f, so a question about trip.
Plus: class (W); going (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C);
Minus: distance (?); course (?); 217 days since last form run; up in trip;
Verdict: (33) a contender with questions.

Looks a trappy affair and I just hope I’ve included the winner in my shortlist. Trying to pare it down, I have to question Ballybolley trying to prove his staying credentials off top weight, and he’s the first to go, swiftly followed by Kilcrea Vale who is another unproven over this trip. What Happens Now we could very well know after today’s race, although I don’t expect him to win. For that I have Virgilio and past winner Sego Success doing battle with slight preference for the former and perhaps What Happens Now claiming third.

martinkil
Posts: 3417
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Re: Saturday 16th December

Postby martinkil » Sat Dec 16, 2017 4:01 pm

How unlucky. If Starchitect hadn't broken down when 7 length clear coming to the 2nd last you would have had and Tricast in the correct order!!! -

Starchitect from Guitar Pete with Clan Des Obeaux nudging out stable companion Le Prezien for the minor placings.

Devasteve
Posts: 546
Joined: Fri Jan 16, 2015 8:29 am

Re: Saturday 16th December

Postby Devasteve » Sun Dec 17, 2017 12:46 pm

Yes, sad about Starchitect Martin, but I guess these tragedies happen from time to time. It does one a great sense of satisfaction though when a race pans out as well as that. Now, can I keep it up is the question!!!


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