Saturday 23rd December

Any comments on today's racing. Please don't just put in selections ... please add some reason why you think a runner will win
Devasteve
Posts: 546
Joined: Fri Jan 16, 2015 8:29 am

Saturday 23rd December

Postby Devasteve » Sat Dec 23, 2017 12:48 pm

Great results last week, but will it bring Christmas cheer this?

Ascot 13.50 Cl 2 Hcap Chase 219 (141) 19f gd/sf – 12 Run (11 at best)

Last year – (Class 3) 162 (140) gd/sf – 15 ran
Poker School 8/1 6-10-0 (117) by 5l from Dusky Lark 9/1 6-11-3 (131)

Dream Bolt 9-11-2 (132)
14 Dec Cl 3 Hcap Chase (89 d) 18f sf Taunt (128) 6/1 2.25l 1/6 off 128
Held up, steady progress from 8th, went 3rd 4 out, chased leader next, led soon after last, ran on well, ridden out
Has been in good form this year and recorded a career best when winning a Cl 3 at Taunton in mid-month; raised 4lbs for that and back up in class today.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); form run lto (9 days); career best lto;
Minus: course (?); up 4lbs; up in class;
Verdict: (42) in good form (as is the stable) and a contender.
Monbeg River 8-11-4 (134)
01 Dec Cl 3 Hcap Chase (88 u) 19d gd/sf Donc (136) 11/4 16l 1/6 off 128
Tracked leaders, led after 4th, made rest, pushed 4 lengths up and firmly in command when left well clear last
Consistent enough of late and recorded a career best at Doncaster at the start of the month when he trounced the field; up 6lbs for that and has another crack at this level.
Plus: going (W); distance (W); form run lto (22 days); career best lto;
Minus: class; course (?); up 6lbs; up in class;
Verdict: (40) fine effort at Doncaster and deserves a crack at this field, and a contender
Poker School 7-11-5 (135)
Has risen 18lbs in the rankings since taking last year’s renewal, but has put in some decent performances on occasions, most recently when just denied at Wetherby last month; UR at Doncaster last week, but likely to bounce back from that; nevertheless, faces a stiff task if he’s to repeat now it’s a class2 hcap.
Plus: going (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent outing (7 days); recent form run (35 days);
Minus: class; up in class;
Verdict: (33) obviously improved but will find it hard to repeat and not the strongest contender.
Pougne Bobbi 6-11-6 (136)
Won at Ludlow in February on second start over fences, but despite lesser efforts since is still 8lbs above that mark; obviously needed his return run here last month, but suspect it’s trainer rather than past from that sees him so short in the market.
Plus: going (F); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent outing (29 days); down 2lbs;
Minus: class; course; 318 days since form run;
Verdict: (29) may improve for return run, but not the strongest contender for me.

A trappy race with potentially a danger in Casse Tete making his season’s debut off a 13lbs higher mark than when winning at Sandown in March. While as a 5yo there could well be more to come, I just feel the sharp rise and lack of a recent run are enough to count against him. It’s a little worrying that I’m going against the market here, but Pougne Bobbi is the first to be struck from my shortlist, followed by last year’s winner Poker School. So with very speculative selections I’m going with Dream Bolt from Monbeg River.

Haydock 14.45 Cl 2 Hcap Chase 156 (144) 23f hv – 10 Run (9 at best)

Last year –156 (139) sf 16 ran
Yala Enki 3/1 F 6-11-7 (139) by 8l from Vieux Lille 7/1 6-11-6 (133)

Three Faces West 9-11-12 (144)
18 Nov Gr 3 Hcap Chase (285 u) 27.5f sf Chelt (166) 5/1 17.25l 3/8 off 147
Led, hit 3 out and headed, soon ridden and held, lost 2nd turning in, stayed on same pace from next until faded final 100yds
Winner over 24f here in similar conditions in November 2016, but after winning his next start in a graduation chase at Newbury the following month was off until returning in a Gr 3 at Cheltenham last month where he only faded late on; has been given 5 weeks to get over that and could well show further improvement on what is only his 8th chase start.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (C); recent outing (35 days); down 3lbs; down in class;
Minus: 375 days since form run; trainer (14d 0/19);
Verdict: (45) has the past form if coming on for Cheltenham, but with stable cold this past fortnight. A contender with a question or two
Full Irish 6-11-5 (137)
28 Nov Cl 3 Hcap Chase (128 u) 23.5f sf Ling (131) 4/1 7l 1/7 off 129
Held up, steady progress to track leader after 4 out, led before next going strongly, soon well in command, shaken up and stayed on from last
Won on hv over hurdles and improved for initial outing over fences to run out an impressive winner on sf at Lingfield last month; has been raised 8lbs for that and rises in class, but performance augured well for his future and may make light of rise in both weight and class.
Plus: going (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (25 days);
Minus: class (?); course (?); up 8lbs; up in class;
Verdict: (42) impressive at Lingfield and while this will be tougher, a definite contender.
Catamaran Du Seuil 5-10-10 (128)
25 Nov Cl 2 Hcap Chase (317 u) 25.5f hv Hayd (144) 7/1 37l 4/8 off 128
In touch, prominent 13th, not fluent 15th, chance 4 out, weakened before 2 out
15 Nov Cl 3 Hcap Chase (78 d) 24.5f hv Ayr (133) 2/1 0.05l 1/6 off 126
Not fluent on occasions, in touch, effort after 3 out, kept on well from last to lead near finish
Gained first success over fences in this country on hv at Ayr in November and may have found his next race here on similar ground coming too soon, although again was not fluent on occasions; has had a respite since and providing he jumps more fluently may make his presence felt.
Plus; going (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent outing (28 days); recent form run (38 days);
Minus: class; course;
Verdict: (36) has shown promise of late, but a little worried about his jumping, especially in demanding conditions such as today and not the strongest contender perhaps.
Lake View Lad 7-11-4 (136)
02 Dec Cl 3 Nov Hcap Chase (65 d) 23.5f sf Nwcs (132) 5/1 2.75l 1/6 off 132
Tracked leaders, led after 6 out, shaken up when not fluent 2 out, soon ridden, stayed on well from last
Winner of 3/6 hurdles, won at 4th attempt over fences at Newcastle 3 weeks ago under his regular rider; has been raised 4lbs for that and is up in class, but improvement by no means impossible.
Plus: going (W); distance (W); form run lto (21 days);
Minus: class (?); course (?); up 4lbs; up in class;
Verdict: having got off the mark there could be more to come, a contender.

The only possible fly in the ointment I see is 2014 winner Broadway Buffalo who runs off an 8lbs higher mark today. The only problem is that he hasn’t seen a racecourse in 672 days and while Pipe is adept at bringing them back from a lengthy break, his record of 0/26 this past fortnight doesn’t fill me with much confidence. It doesn’t look the greatest field the race has ever boasted, and from my foursome I’m going for Full Irish from Three Faces West with Lake View Lad perhaps beating Broadway Buffalo to fill out the frame.

Ascot 15.00 Listed Hcap Chase 570 (156) 24f gd/sf – 14 Run

Last year – 570 (155) gd/sf 14 ran
Regal Encore 20/1 8-11-1 (144) by 1.75l from Minella Daddy 9/2 F 6-10-13 (142)
Go Conquer 7/1 7-10-7 (136) Fell at 1st

Go Conquer 8-11-7 (151)
04 Nov Gr 3 Hcap Chase (570 u) 24f gd Ascot (150) 7/1 4.5l 1/16 off 142
Jumped well, led to 6th and from 9th, clear after 3 out, pushed along and in no danger after, eased final 50yds
Runs off a 19lbs higher mark than when falling at the first in last year’s renewal; however, back to front-running this term and has recorded consecutive career-best performances, making all to win a Cl 2 over 19.5f at Fontwell on his return in October; followed up by taking a Gr 3 over C&D here at the start of November off a 7lbs higher mark, again making all; has been raised 9lbs for that and both wins were on gd, but has won on gd/sf in the past.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); form run lto (49 days); career best lto; down in class;
Minus: up 9lbs;
Verdict: (57) appears to have stepped up his form this season and a contender despite the rise in the weights.
Gold Present 7-11-3 (147)
02 Dec Cl 2 Hcap Chase (250 d) 22.5f gd/sf Newb (144) 13/2 0.25l 1/12 off 142
Jumped right throughout, led until after 13th, ridden after 3 out, stayed on well from last to lead final 75yds
Won on chasing debut and improved throughout his first season, finishing runner-up in a NHCh at the Cheltenham Festival in March; was making headway when falling in the Topham at Aintree in April, but started this season in good form when stepped up to 22.5f at Newbury on his return and staying on well to record a career best despite jumping to the right; has been raised 5lbs for that, and while trying this trip for the first time should at least be better suited by the course.
Plus: class (F); going (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (21 days); career best lto;
Minus: distance (?); course (?); up 5lbs; up in class;
Verdict: (43) improving sort and while unproven at the trip, a contender.
Walk In The Mill 7-10-9 (139)
24 Nov Cl 3 Hcap Chase (162 u) 24d gd/sf Ascot (135) 8/1 7l 1/8 off 131
Mostly tracked leading pair, slightly impeded 4 out, shaken up after 3 out, close up 2 out, produced to lead last with fine jump, ridden clear
Won twice on sf last season, although never handled the 12lbs rise in his mark following his Wincanton success in early January; likely needed his return at Stratford in October, but relished the step up in trip when again dropped in the weights in winning over C&D here last month in similar ground conditions, equalling his career best; has been raised 8lbs for that and is up 2 classes, but this trip may bring further improvement.
Plus: going (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (29 days);
Minus: class; up 8lbs; up 2 classes;
Verdict: up in class, but in form and as a C&D winner a potential contender.
Regal Encore 9-11-6 (150)
02 Dec Gr 3 Hcap Chase (1424 u) 26f gd/sf Newb (165) 66/1 9.25l 3/20 off 150
Mid-division, ridden and headway after 17th, went 3rd 2 out, stayed on but not pace to threaten front pair run-in
Not always the most consistent, but very useful on a going day as when winning last year’s renewal off a 6lbs lower mark; was PU at Cheltenham and finished 8/40 in only other 2 further starts last season; tailed off in the Sodexo Gold Cup won by Go Conquer (-8) on his return in November, but recorded a career best when 3/20 in the Ladbrokes Trophy at Newbury, although never getting to Total Recall and Whispers; Geraghty takes the ride again this year.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (21 days); career best lto; down in class;
Minus:
Verdict: (36) 6lbs higher than last year, but can’t be ignored on his Ladbrokes form and a contender.
Singlefarmpayment 7-11-3 (147)
02 Dec Gr 3 Hcap Chase (1424 u) 26f gd/sf Newb (165) 13/2 Fell 3 out off 147
Held up towards rear, headway after 17th, pushed along in 6th when fell 3 out
28 Oct Cl 2 Hcap Chase (313 d) 25f gd Chelt (154) 11/2 4/16 off 146
Held up towards rear, steady progress after 16th, went 2nd 2 out, soon ridden and held, hung right after last, stayed on
Fine first season over fences culminating in just being denied by Un Temps Pour Tout (+13) in the Ultima at the Cheltenham Festival; returned to record another career best when runner-up to Cogry at Cheltenham in October and was just starting to make his move when falling 3 out in the Ladbrokes Trophy at Newbury last month; runs off the same mark today and looks well treated compared to some providing he’s over his fall.
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (W); course (F); trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent outing (21 days); 56 days since form run; down in class;
Minus:
Verdict: (37) looks to be promising staying handicapper and a contender if over Newbury fall.

Very competitive handicap as the market suggests and I could well have erred by not including O O Seven and On Tour, but neither has form at this trip. Nor do I see either of the Nicholls pair as among the most likely candidates. Going through my shortlist I have to wonder if Walk In The Mill can handle his 8lbs rise in the weights while meeting this far more exalted company, plus whether Gold Present can stay this trip. It’s tough trying to win these class handicaps two years in a row and of course one is never really sure which version of Regal Encore will turn up, but if he’s in the right frame of mind he could well go close again this year. However, I find it hard to argue against Go Conquer despite his rise in the weights and expect him to have a little too much for Singlefarmpayment whose fall at Newbury means he comes into this a well-handicapped and likely contender. So for me it’s Go Conquer from Singlefarmpayment with Regal Encore possible holding off Walk The Mill Gold Present.

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