Tuesday 26th December

Any comments on today's racing. Please don't just put in selections ... please add some reason why you think a runner will win
Devasteve
Posts: 546
Joined: Fri Jan 16, 2015 8:29 am

Tuesday 26th December

Postby Devasteve » Tue Dec 26, 2017 11:36 am

Didn't exactly shine on Saturday, so see if I can do better today, although Boxing Day brings few qualifying races for me and I've even dipped to a Class 3 handicap chase to make it a couple.

Wincanton 14.05 Cl 3 Hcap Chase 127 (125) 25f sf – 12 Run (11 at best)

Last renewal (2015) – 80 (125) sf 7 ran
Shockingtimes 6/1 8-11-6 (119) by 7l from Astigos 3/1 Jt F 8-11-7 (120)
Umberto D’Olivate 5/1 7-11-12 (125) was 15.05l 4th

Wizards Bridge 8-11-4 (117)
07 Dec Cl 3 Hcap Chase (96 u) 25f sf Winc 3/1 F 9.75 3/7 off 118
Disputed lead until 4th, tracked leaders, nudged along in close 5th after 12th, ridden after 4 out, closing in 4th when mistake 3 out, stayed on same pace and held from next
Mistake 3 out cost him over C&D here lto, but won on his return at Fontwell in October and 4/10 also under today’s rider at Exeter the following month.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (F); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (19 days); down 1lb;
Minus:
Verdict: (46) has been in good form of late and a contender.
Krackatoa King 9-11-12 (125)
26 Nov Cl 4 Hcap Chase (41 u) 26f hv Uttox (120) 6/4 F 0.05l 1/6 off 120
Held up in touch, went 2nd after 16th, led 3 out, continually pressed, gamely prevailed in driving finish
Seems to need extreme conditions to prevail and was very brave in winning at Uttoxeter towards the end of November, the front pair coming well clear of the field; up 5lbs for that, plus back up in class, but likely to give it his best shot unless conditions dry further.
Plus: class (F); going (F); distance (W); course (F); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (30 days);
Minus: up 5lbs; up in class;
Verdict: (38) likely to give it a good shot from top of the handicap and a contender.
Shockingtimes 10-11-6 (119)
Runs off the same mark as when winning the 2015 renewal (last year’s meeting was cancelled) and could well have made a winning return after a long absence when falling while in front in the race won by Wizards Bridge, although was ridden at the time; having been given time to get over that, no surprise were he to go close again.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d);
Minus: 81-day break;
Verdict: (35) last winner of the race and a contender again today.

Others to perhaps look at include Beau Du Brizais and Captain Buck’s despite neither having yet won a chase. BDB has finished runner-up the last twice, for which he’s been raised 2lbs each time, plus stable is not in great form of late (0/19). CB, meanwhile, was 3.75l back of BDB (-2) on his chase debut at Taunton at the end of November. With a 3lbd swing in the weights, plus the addition of cheek-pieces for the first time may swing things in favour of the Nicholls horse. For the winner, however, I prefer to look elsewhere and am going for Wizards Bridge from Shockingtimes and Krackatoa King.

Wetherby 14.10 Gr 3 Hcap Chase 228 (152) 24f sf – 8 Run

Last year – 228 (153) gd/sf 10 ran
Definitly Red 9/2 7-11-0 (141) by 7l from Wakanda 12/1 7-11-8 (149)
Actinpieces 12/1 5-10-1 (131) PU after 5 out

Wakanda 8-11-4 (144)
02 Dec List Hcap Chase (401 u) 23.5f sf Nwcs (150) 7/2 33.25l 5/8 off 147
Led to 11th, mistake 13th, ridden and weakened from 3 out (usual 4 out)
28 Oct Cl 2 Hcap Chase (141 d) 24f gd Kelso (149) 5/2 7l 2/5 off 149
Led, ridden and headed after 2 out, rallied, kept on same pace from last
Had Blaklion and Yala Enki behind him when runner-up to the useful Definitly Red in last year’s renewal off a 5lbs higher mark, although never going to challenge the winner; mistakes and PU in the National trial at Haydock and then 3rd to Definitly Red again at Doncaster on final start in March; some promise on return at Kelso in October, but rather disappointed in the Rehearsal at Newcastle at the start of the month; he won the Rehearsal back in 2015 and followed up by winning at Ascot off 151; nothing since though and it’s a question as to whether he can recover winning form off today’s144.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (C); recent outing (25 days); down 3lbs; 7lbs lower than last winning mark;
Minus: 50 days since form run; over 2 years since last win;
Verdict: (48) chances on last year’s running now handicapper has relented, and a contender.
Delusionofgrandeur 7-11-2 (142)
24 Nov Cl 3 Hcap Chase (78 d) 25f gd/sf Catt (137) 6/4 F 4.5 1/9 off 134
Prominent, led after 11th, made rest, ridden before 3 out, stayed on well, eased towards finish
Won 3 times in first season over fences and regained winning thread on third start this when term when dropped to a Cl 3 at Catterick last month; emphatic enough for the handicapper to slap on an 8lbs rise. But as a 7yo still has scope for further improvement; however, noted he has improvement to find with Baywing who was a long way in front when winning a Gr 2 NCh over C&D on sf here back in February.
Plus: going (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (C); form run lto (32 days);
Minus: class; up 8lbs; up 2 classes;
Verdict: (45) improving chaser, but jockey bookings suggest he’s stable’s second string, although still a contender.
Baywing 8-11-4 (144)
Stormed home in a Gr 2 NCh over C&D here in February on only his second start over fences (Delusionofgrandeur [+4] 42l back), but has lacked jumping fluency in each of his 3 subsequent starts; got no further than the first fence at Haydock lto, while was a distant 3/4 in a listed intermediate chase at Carlisle on his return in early November; something to prove now methinks.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent outing (31 days);
Minus: up in class; 325 days since last form run;
Verdict: great chance on February win here, but on recent form a contender with questions.
Actinpieces 6-10-13 (139)
01 Dec Cl 2 Hcap Hdl (219 u) 24f sf Newb (142) 12/1 37.6l 8/11 off 134
Always towards rear
15 Nov Cl 2 Hcap Chase (163 u) 24f sf Bang (144) 5/1 1.25l 2/8 off 139
Mid-division, went prominent and reached for 9th, led 5 out, pushed along and headed 2 out, soon ridden, rallied approaching last where 1 length behind, kept on under pressure run-in but always held
Made numerous jumping errors before being PU off an 8lbs lower mark in last year’s renewal; however, much better form over fences this season, recording a career best when winning at Fakenham on his return in October and then running to the same level off a 5lbs higher mark at Bangor the following month; inclined to ignore the Ladbroke hurdle run lto, as chasing now seems to be his game.
Plus: going (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent outing (25 days); last form run (41 days);
Minus: class; up in class;
Verdict: (39) improving young chaser, although this is a step up in class; nevertheless, a contender.
Get On The Yager 7-10-7 (133)
11 Dec Cl 3 Hcap Chase (63 d) 26f hv Font (137) 100/30 7l 1/6 off 128
Close up, disputed 2nd 10th, went left and hit 4 out, challenging when went left and hit 3 out, led after 2 out, stayed on well, ridden out
Only third chase start and upped in distance when providing a career best to win at Fontwell earlier in the month; has been raised 5lbs for that and is up some way in class, but could well have much more to give and going obviously no problem.
Plus: going (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (15 days);
Minus: class (?); course; up 5lbs; up 2 classes;
Verdict: (37) unexposed over fences and could well show marked improvement at around this trip, so unwise to ignore and a contender.

Perhaps not the strongest field that’s ever contested the race, but I can make a case for most, although sadly not for likely favourite Aloomomo who returns to fences for the first time since falling at Cheltenham a year ago. Looking at my shortlist, I’m not prepared to take a chance on Baywing returning to the form he displayed here in February, so he’s first to go. Delusionofgrandeur was a long way behind him that day, but has shown by far the better recent form. However, he had to be dropped to Cl 3 to win lto and now goes back up in class off an 8lbs higher mark, plus regular jockey Cook has opted to ride the stable’s other entry, and last year’s runner-up, Wakanda. So while it may be me that’s deluded, Delusionofgrandeur is the next one to go. The other three are trickier to split, with both Wakanda and Actinpieces coming back for another bite at the cherry. Of the pair, I’m more inclined towards Wakanda but I also have a feeling that Get On The Yager may have a bright future over fences and he could well be in the picture too. So I’m going for Wakanda from Get On The Yager and Actinpieces.

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