Wednesday 27th December

Any comments on today's racing. Please don't just put in selections ... please add some reason why you think a runner will win
Devasteve
Posts: 546
Joined: Fri Jan 16, 2015 8:29 am

Wednesday 27th December

Postby Devasteve » Wed Dec 27, 2017 11:55 am

Well that was a lot better, even if I did get them the wrong way round. Bit sad that Chepstow is off today, although I've got a lot done for the Welsh National a week on Saturday. All that's left though is a rather trappy looking handicap at Kempton, which has a number of potential pitfalls. Still, I am supposedly on holiday, so here goes.

Kempton 15.05 Cl 2 Hcap Chase 250 (142) 24f sf – 8 Run

Last year – 250 (143) gd 8 ran
Double Shuffle 8/1 6-11-12 (143) by 3.5l from Go Conquer 9/2 7-11-5 (136)

Pilgrims Bay 7-11-5 (135)
02 Dec Gr 3 Hcap Chase (1424 u) 26f gd/sf Newb (165) 33/1 17l 5/20 off 139
Held up towards rear, headway after 17th, ridden into 5th after 2 out, stayed on same pace from last
Beat last year’s winner Double Shuffle when winning a Gr 3 over C&D here back in February, but a couple of jumping errors knocked the stuffing out of him at Cheltenham the following month and was sensibly retired for the season; another jumping error on his return in the Badger Ales at Wincanton in November and while he made some forward movement late on he was never really going to threaten; showed progress, however, when finishing in 5th in the Ladbroke Trophy at Newbury at the start of the month, despite running from 2lbs out of the handicap, although again not close enough to be termed a form run; will in fact run off a 4lbs lower mark today and is only 5lbs higher than for his last success here; just wonder if he might prefer better underfoot conditions, as both chase wins have come on gd, although he won on sf over hurdles.
Plus: class (W+); going (Wh); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); recent outing (25 days); down 4lbs; down in class;
Minus: 305 days since last form run;
Verdict: (46) given a chance here based on course form and a contender if coming on for Ladbrokes run.
Brandon Hill 9-11-3 (133)
24 Nov Cl 3 Hcap Chase (162 u) 24f gd/sf Ascot (135) 4/1 7l 2/8 off 133
Jumped well, led, ridden and pressed before 2 out, headed between last 2 but still every chance, one pace from last
Lightly-raced sort and won a pair of HCh last December/January when with Tom Lacey; made a positive impression when putting up a career best on his first start for his new yard at Ascot last month, jumping well until lack of race fitness told on his first start in 9 months; runs off the same mark today and while he’s up in class, improvement can be expected on only his 6th chase start.
Plus: going (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (33 days);
Minus: class (?); course; up in class;
Verdict: (44) lightly raced and with scope for further improvement with new yard, a contender.
Sir Ivan 7-11-12 (142)
02 Dec Gr 2 Nov Chase (230 u) 23.5f gd/sf Newb (155) 6/1 13.75l 3/5 off 143
Tracked leaders, hit 4th, ridden after 4 out, left 3rd next, stayed on same pace from 2 out
19 Oct Cl 3 Nov Hcap Chase (63 u) 22.5f sf Uttox (135) 4/1 2l 1/11 off 135
Held up in touch, not fluent 10th, chased leader 4 out, led approaching last, ridden out
Seems to have got it together at last, winning a beginners chase in May and then a NHCh on his October return at Uttoxeter; can perhaps be forgiven for finding the opposition too hot at Newbury earlier in the month, as he proved no match for the first two home; has been dropped 1lb, plus also drops in class, but is still 7lbs higher in higher class than for his October win.
Plus: going (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent outing (25 days); down 1lb; down in class;
Minus: class (?); course (?);
Verdict: (40) handicapper may have over-reacted to his Uttoxeter win and perhaps not the strongest contender off this mark.
Holly Bush Henry 6-11-4 (134)
Has won 3 of 8 starts over hurdles since joining his new yard in mid-year and now reverts to chasing, in which sphere he’s only 1 from 5, a Cl 3 NCh over 17f at Market Rasen in February; has won at up to 25f over hurdles, but 20f is the furthest he’s tried over fences; moreover, whereas he’s 6/17 over hurdles, he’s just 1/5 over fences.
Plus: going (W); course (F); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (18 days over hurdles);
Minus: class (?); distance (?);
Verdict: (39) has to prove his chase form is up to that over fences, and thus a contender with questions.
Tintern Theatre 6-11-4 (134)
Which version will turn up today is the question, as while his penultimate start in an amateur riders HCh at Cheltenham could be termed promising, he’s fallen or UR in 2 of his other 3 chase starts; if he can get his jumping sorted out he could perhaps be a force in time, possibly over further, but will today be the day he starts to make a statement with a win over fences?
Plus: going (Wh); distance (F); trainer (C); recent outing (12 days); recent form run (40 days);
Minus: class; course (?);
Verdict: (20) has potential if Sam can get a tune out of him, but very much a contender with questions.

A very tricky race to try and weight up, not so much because we’ve got a field of in-form chasers, but rather that there aren’t many who have established reliable form over the larger obstacles. With Sam riding Tintern Theatre for his father, for instance, the horse is popular in the betting, but while his penultimate Cheltenham start showed promise, the other three that include two DNFs leave me cold. He thus leaves my shortlist along with Holly Bush Holly who has yet to transfer his hurdle form to fences. Of the remaining trio, I think that Sir Ivan has been handed a tough task off top weight and thus would have it as Brandon Hill holding off Pilgrims Bay with perhaps Sir Ivan back in third. Now watch one of the imponderables upset the apple cart!

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