Saturday 30 December

Any comments on today's racing. Please don't just put in selections ... please add some reason why you think a runner will win
Devasteve
Posts: 546
Joined: Fri Jan 16, 2015 8:29 am

Saturday 30 December

Postby Devasteve » Sat Dec 30, 2017 12:08 pm

Wednesday was the perfect example of when to leave a race alone, as the winner was always possible if reproducing his best form, although given his record in his other races the price was far too short to take a chance on that. More sub-standard racing today, which is perhaps just as well as I feel rather lethargic! Still, to show willing....

Haydock 14.10 Cl 2 Hcap Chase 138 (132) 27.5f hv – 10 Run (9 at best)

Last renewal (2015) – 138 hv 8 ran
Rigadin De Beauchene 4/1 10-10-11 (127) by 3l from Harry The Viking 11/1 10-10-12 (128)

Whiskey Chaser 9-10-8 (114)
06 Dec Cl 4 Hcap Chase (65 u) 23f hv Hayd (122) 17/2 3.5l 1/8 off 109
Mid-division, headway into 3rd before 4 out, disputed lead 3 out, led before 2 out, shaken up approaching last where narrow lead, ridden and stayed on well run-in
Twice a winner at up to 24f last season and put up a career best in making a winning return here at the start of the month; has been raised 5lbs for that and is up a couple of classes, plus this is a new trip; however, the ground will definitely suit and gets 7lbs or more from the rest of the field.
Plus: going (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (24 days); career best lto;
Minus: class (?); up 5lbs; up 2 classes; up in trip;
Verdict: (45) patiently brought along and the right age to step up to this sort of trip on ground that suits, a contender.
Emperor’s Choice 10-11-4 (124)
25 Nov Cl 3 Hcap Chase (162 d) 28.5f hv Hayd (136) 4/1 32l 3/8 off 127
Chased leader, led 8th, headed before 10th, unable to go with winner before 4 out and lost 2nd, tired 3 out, pressed for remote 3rd 2 out, well beaten but plugged on run-in
Winner of the 2014 Welsh National and followed up by winning over 27.5f here off 135 on his return the following November; however, has been PU in 5 of his 8 starts since and his effort on return this November in the same race he won in 2015 could be classed his best effort since; whether he builds on that, or is PU as has followed his last 3 completions is a matter of conjecture though.
Plus: class (W+); going (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent outing (35 days); down 3lbs;
Minus: up in class; 770 days since last form run (win);
Verdict: (42) has the ability if recovering old form, but no guarantee he will even complete the course today and a contender with questions.
Gold Opera 8-11-5 (125)
15 Nov Cl 3 Hcap Chase (78 d) 24.5f hv Ayr (133) 7/1 0.8l 4/6 off 125
Close up, led 7th, headed briefly 10th, ridden before 2 out, hung left after last, no extra and headed near finish
Three of his 5 wins at up to 20.5f have come at Ayr and showed his liking for the course when finishing a competitive 4/6 over 24.5f last month; while he appeared to tire late on, that could have been the lack of a previous race and trainer obviously believes he has a chance of staying this trip; however, this is a big test for an 8yo.
Plus: going (W); distance (F); form run lto (45 days);
Minus: class (?); course (?); up in class; up in trip;
Verdict: (35) done all that’s been asked so far, but this far stiffer test and a questionable contender to see the trip out in these conditions.
West Of The Edge 9-11-8 (128)
12 Mar Cl 3 Hcap Chase (113 d) 29f sf Warw (123) 8/1 8l 1/11 off 119
Settled in midfield, effort in 3rd at 15th, going well next, ridden to lead 2 out, forged clear under a strong drive, 6 lengths clear last, kept right up to work
Far better chaser than hurdler and has won 3 of 4 chase starts since joining the good doctor last season; has had a couple of starts over hurdles to get him into shape this season and an interesting contender on his first run over fences since winning at Warwick in March.
Plus: going (W); distance (W); trainer (C); recent outing (11 days);
Minus: class (?); course (?); up 9lbs since last chase; up in class;
Verdict: (34) interesting returned to fences and a contender.
Jennys Surprise 9-11-3 (123)
07 Dec Cl 3 Hcap Chase (96 u) 25f sf Winc (126) 100/30 12.75l 4/7 off 123
Tracked leaders, pressed leader after 12th, not fluent when leading next, not fluent and headed 14th, challenged after 17th, ridden after next, stayed on same pace from 3 out
18 Nov Cl 3 Hcap Chase (63 d) 26f gd/sf Uttox (130) 11/1 2l 1/9 off 117
Held up, went prominent 6th, led 6 out, pushed along 3 out where got in close, driven 2 out, ridden in 2 lengths lead approaching last, kept on well run-in
Looked back to form coming back from a year’s break at Uttoxeter in November, but penchant for jumping errors surfaced at Wincanton earlier this month when last of the 4 finishers; handles hv ground, but questions about jumping remain and has twice failed at this level.
Plus: going (F); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent outing (23 days); recent form run (42 days);
Minus: class; course (?); up in class;
Verdict: yet to prove she can perform at this level and worries about jumping fluency suggest she’s not the strongest contender.

Weather conditions mean that we’ve only had four renewals in the past 10 years, all won by a 9/10yo that had run within the last three to six weeks. Of those towards the front of the betting I’m inclined to pass on Lessons In Milan as while he finished a sound 5/20 on the Scottish National last April, he has yet to win over fences and didn’t exactly impress here in similar conditions last month. Joining him on the discards pile is the mare Jennys Surprise who is not always the most fluent of jumpers. I have worries about the 8yo Gold Opera staying the trip in these conditions, so that’s another gone. Of the remaining trio I do worry that Emperor’s Choice has not won for such a long time and has a penchant for failing to finish his races nowadays. However, if on a going day he looks exceedingly well handicapped and can’t be ignored. Nevertheless, the pair I expect to fight out the finish are the two ‘W’s, Whiskey Chaser and West Of The Edge and expect then to finish in that order with Emperor’s Choice filling out the frame.

Newbury 14.25 Cl 3 Hcap Chase 119 (135) 26f hv – 11 Run (9 at best)

Last year – 117 (132) gd/sf 12 ran
Potters Cross 11/2 9-11-9 (132) by 2l from Treaty Girl 12/1 5-11-9 (125)

Daklondike 5-11-10 (133)
07 Dec Cl 3 Hcap Chase (96 u) 25f sf Winc (126) 7/2 3.75l 1/7 off 126
Tracked leaders, led after 14th, stumbled 4 out, ridden after 3 out, jumped slightly right last 3, stayed on well from next, ridden out
Ex-pointer who has taken to fences well and with cheek-pieces added to the tongue-tie has won 2 of his last 3 starts, the latest at Wincanton earlier in the month; has been raised 7lbs for that, but likely there’s more to come on only his fifth chase start and he won on hv over hurdles.
Plus: class (W); going (Wh); distance (W); trainer (C); form run lto (23 days);
Minus: course (?); up 7lbs; trainer (14d – 0/19);
Verdict: (48) rapidly improving young chaser who must be considered a contender.
Knockanrawley 9-11-10 (133)
15 Nov Cl 3 Hcap Chase (78 d) 24.5f hv Ayr (133) 15/8 F 0.05l 2/6 off 132
Led to 7th, regained lead briefly 10th, close up, driven 3 out, checked and switched right run-in, rallied and disputed lead near finish, just held
Last win when taking the 2014 renewal, but was missing from November 2015 until this past January; runner-up in the Eider in February and filled the same position at Ayr on his return last month in similar conditions to today; raised 1lb for that but seems to be regaining his form.
Plus: class (W); going (F); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (45);
Minus: up 1lb;
Verdict: (43) back to form and only 3lbs higher than when taking 2015 renewal, a contender.
Grand Vision 11-11-10 (133)
05 Dec Cl 3 Hcap Chase (76 d) 20f sf Ling (130) 9/4 F 1.25l 1/7 off 130
Led to 6th, pressed leader to 4 out, pushed along soon after, rallied from 3 out, led last, driven and kept on well
Won a hunter chase at Warwick in January and doubled his tally on his return over 20f at Lingfield at the start of the month when recording a career best; raised 3lbs for that and steps back up in trip against tougher opposition today.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); trainer (C); form run lto (25 days); career best lto;
Minus: course (?); up 3lbs; up in trip;
Verdict: (40) lightly raced for his age, but not sure there’s likely to be further improvement from an 11yo and not the strongest contender perhaps.
Henllan Harri 9-11-6 (129)
11 Nov List Hcap Chase (342 u) 25f sf Wincanton (154) 8/1 9-9-9 PU/16 off 130
Chased leaders early, mid-division 9th, ridden after 16th, weakened after next, tailed off when pulled up before 3 out
Won the Bet365 Gold Cup off 126 at Sandown in April and was 4/20 in the Summer Cup at Uttoxeter in June; has yet to find his form on return, however, finishing 3/7 in a Worcester hurdle in October and then being PU in the Badger Ales; dropped in class here and has won on hv in the past; however, believe he would prefer better ground.
Plus: class (W+); going (W); distance (W); course (F); trainer (14d); down 1lb; down in class;
Minus: 45-day break; 74 days since last form run;
Verdict: (40) slight question about going, but a contender on best form.
Wuff 9-11-7 (130)
15 Dec Cl 3 Hcap Chase (65 d) 24f hv Bang (134) 4/1 6l 2/4 off 130
Chased winner, moved upsides approaching 2 out, ridden before last, one pace after
Having not enjoyed much success with Nicholls returned to original yard last season and won at Ffos Las in March; promising return on hv at Bangor mid-month and could well come on for that.
Plus: class (W); going (Wh); distance (W); course (F); trainer (14d); form run lto (15 days);
Minus:
Verdict: (37) promising return at Bangor and could well build on that, a contender.

I’m passing on Potters Legend as besides top weight there is also a question about the ground. I’m also passing on Shotgun Paddy who has had had plenty of chances since his last success nearly three years ago. True, he is well handicapped nowadays and must surely win again someday, but not today I hope. I’m not keen on the chances of Grand Vision either, nor for that matter does Henllan Harri excite. Of the remaining trio, Daklondike has a stiff task for a 5yo, plus there’s been no festive joy for the Pipe yard. So regretfully I’ll pass I’ll pass for Knockanrawley and Wuff who I prefer in that order from Daklondike

martinkil
Posts: 3418
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Re: Saturday 30 December

Postby martinkil » Sat Dec 30, 2017 7:06 pm

I see you've started writing in code now - it's the one you write third which is the selection - I'll remember for future reference :)

Devasteve
Posts: 546
Joined: Fri Jan 16, 2015 8:29 am

Re: Saturday 30 December

Postby Devasteve » Mon Jan 01, 2018 11:19 am

Yes, that was very annoying Martin. I shall have to go back and see if taking three against the field rather than two is viable, or perhaps take the two highest rated (figure after Verdict). The trouble is finding time to do all these things - I'm supposed to be on annual leave, but still get office e-mails marked Urgent! What they'll do when I'm no longer here I shudder to think.

martinkil
Posts: 3418
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Re: Saturday 30 December

Postby martinkil » Mon Jan 01, 2018 8:41 pm

Don't you have an auto reply - "Feck Off - I'm on holiday"!


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