Monday 1st January

Any comments on today's racing. Please don't just put in selections ... please add some reason why you think a runner will win
Devasteve
Posts: 546
Joined: Fri Jan 16, 2015 8:29 am

Monday 1st January

Postby Devasteve » Mon Jan 01, 2018 11:28 am

As Martin rightly sussed out the winning selections were actually those third on the list, rather than my first two selections. I must try to stop doing that, but never make resolutions at New Year as I never follow them! Thankfully it was small fields today so here's a couple from Cheltenham.

Cheltenham 14.00 Gr 3 Hcap Chase 427 (154) 21f hv – 9 Run

Last year – 342 (159) sf 11 ran
Shantou Flyer 20/1 7-11-2 (149) by 3l from Village Vic 11/4F 10-11-11 (158)
Top Gamble 8/1 9-11-12 (159) was 3.5l 3rd
Quite By Chance 6/1 8-11-0 (147) was 18.25l 6th

Sametegal 9-11-2 (144)
09 Dec Cl 2 Hcap Chase (433 u) 21f hv Aint (144) 5/1 7l 3/11 off 144
Held up, headway 3 out, close up when slightly hampered and mistake 2 out, 5th at last, ridden into 2nd early on run-in, relegated to 3rd just after elbow, one pace
Had been absent since winning a Gr 3 off 143 at Newbury in March 2016, but showed he retained his ability when runner-up to subsequent Caspian Caviar winner Guitar Pete in a listed HCh at Wetherby on his return in November; Splash Of Ginge (-9) was 20l back in 4th but went on to take the BetVictor next time out, although looks unlikely to reverse Wetherby running on 4lbs worse terms; Sametegal then went on to finish 3/11 to Gas Line Boy in the Grand Sefton on hv at Aintree last month, only weakening from the elbow; runs here off the same mark, which is only 1lb higher than for his Newbury win and looks to be returning to his best form.
Plus: class (W); going (F); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (23 days);
Minus: up in class;
Verdict: (51) seems to have returned with his ability intact and a contender here.
Quite By Chance 9-11-4 (146)
25 Nov Cl 2 Hcap Chase (626 u) 17f gd/sf Ascot (165) 7/2 2l 3/8 off 146
Made most to 8th, slightly outpaced after 3 out, rallied before last, stayed on flat to take 3rd final stride
Runs off 1lb less than when 6th to Shantou Flyer (+2) in last year’s renewal but was a long way back of Top Gamble (+12) in 3rd; failed to finish 2 of his subsequent 3 starts, but has shown more promise on his return this season with placed efforts in a pair of 17f Ascot HCh, although he won and finished runner-up in the corresponding races last season; a little worry though that stable is going through a dry patch at present.
Plus: class (W); going (F); distance (W); course (F); trainer (C); form run lto (37 days);
Minus: up in class; trainer 14d (0/29);
Verdict: (42) not entirely convinced he’s weighted well enough to improve on last year’s performance and not the strongest contender perhaps.
Burtons Well 9-10-12 (140)
21 Oct Cl 2 Hcap Chase (158 d) 21f gd/sf Strat (145) 5/1 0.25l 2/6 off 137
Held up, headway to chase leader 10th, led well before last, ridden and headed flat, stayed on
Won over 20f on hv at Uttoxeter on second chase start last season, although enjoyed mixed fortune in 2 subsequent starts being 4/14 in the Timeform Novice HCh in January and falling when going well enough in the Close Novices HCh at the Festival; promising return at Stratford in October when putting up a career best and was only just denied, but hasn’t been seen since; stable in better form of late, although doesn’t have the greatest record here, but improvement likely on only his sixth chase start.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); form run lto;
Minus: course; up 3lbs; up in class; trainer course (3/117);
Verdict: (39) largely unexposed and has to be considered a contender.
Top Gamble 10-11-12 (154)
10 Dec Gr 2 Chase (310 d) 16.5f hv Cork (167) 7/1 25l 2/5 off 156
Chased leaders in 4th, closer in 2nd at 3rd, pushed along before 3 out and soon no impression on winner, kept on one pace
Multiple Gr 2 winner, but can be forgiven the margin at Cork in December as he was chasing home Un De Sceaux; runs off a 5lbs lower mark than when finishing 3rd in last year’s renewal and as such should again finish in front of Quite By Chance; only giving 2lbs to Shantou Flyer this year and given the latter’s abysmal efforts since must surely reverse that running; in-form jockey claims a useful 5lbs and not surprise if on the premises again (was also 3rd to Village Vic in 2016 off 153).
Plus: class (W+); going (W); distance (F); course (F); trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent outing (22); down in class; down 2lbs;
Minus: 645 days since last win;
Verdict: (38) has finished 3rd in the last 2 renewals and no surprise were he to make the frame again, thus a possible contender

Shantou Flyer won last year’s renewal off 149 on his season’s debut, but showed little thereafter. He moved stables prior to this season and after a trio on unconvincing efforts (the latest when PU on Boxing Day) they’ve reached for the cheek-pieces. I’d be surprised if he finished in front of Top Gamble and Quite By Chance again. By the same token I’d be surprised if Quite By Chance reversed that running with Top Gamble, so he is dropped from the shortlist to join Theival and Splash Of Ginge who never made it. I have a feeling that this has been Burtons Well initial target this season and with the stable now finding form he should go close. However, the one they all have to beat in my mind is Sametegal. So Sametegal from Burtons Well and Top Gamble third again is the way I see it.

Cheltenham 14.35 Cl 2 Hcap Hurdle 156 (142) 24f hv – 8 Run

Last year – 125 (143) sf 7 ran
Cogry 9/2 8-10-10 (128) by 0.25l from Rocklander 2/1 F 8-10-13 (131)

Arthur’s Gift 7-11-6 (136)
15 Dec Cl 2 Hcap Hdl (138 d) 24f sf Chelt (145) 6/1 1.75l 1/11 off 130
In touch, struggling to hold place after 9th, headway after 2 out, went 3rd at the last, stayed on strongly to lead towards finish, won going away
Was completing a hat-trick when an impressive winner over C&D here lto recording yet another career best; all have come under today’s conditional and while he has been raised 6lbs, there’s no reason to suppose the winning streak is over yet providing he acts on hv.
Plus: class (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (17 days); career best lto;
Minus: going (?)
Verdict: (54) has been impressive this past month or so and a definite contender.
Red Rising 7-11-0 (130)
05 Dec Cl 3 Hcap Hdl (63 u) 24f gd South (135) 9/4 F 9l 1/13 off 120
Led until headed 2nd, remained prominent, led again 3 out, pushed along and 2 lengths clear 2 out, ridden to extend lead before last where left clear, unchallenged
Winning pointer who made it 2/3 over hurdles with a facile victory at Southwell lto; has been raised 10lbs for that, plus is up in class, but hard not to envision further improvement; moreover, did win his P2P on hv, so should be no problems there.
Plus: going (Wp); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (27 days); career best lto;
Minus: class (?); course (?); up 10lbs; up in class;
Verdict: (48) this much stiffer task, but maybe not beyond him on only fourth NH start, a contender.
Lovenormoney 7-11-7 (137)
09 Dec Cl 3 Hcap Hdl (58 d) 23.5f hv Chep (130) 4/1 9l 1/9 off 127
Jumped well, raced on inner, made virtually all, ridden 2 out, stayed on strongly
First-time cheek-pieces did the trick and repaid the faith of his supporters by winning in style in similar conditions at Chepstow last month; the handicapper has responded to the tune of 10lbs, but that was a career best and may have more to give.
Plus: going (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); form run lto (23 days); career best lto;
Minus: class (?); course (?); up 10lbs; up in class;
Verdict: (38) another improving sort who has to be considered a contender.

These are the only three that I can see with chances of winning as neither Skipthecuddles nor Boyhood have proven to me that they have the stamina to stay this trip in today’s conditions. So with just the three, it’s all a matter of getting them in the right order. Both Red Rising and Lovenormoney were wide margin winners lto handing the handicapper a puzzle to work out. Of the pair, I believe that Red Rising has the greater potential to make light of his new burden. However, whether that will be good enough to see him lower the colours of Arthur’s Gift is another matter. So I’m going for Arthur’s Gift from Red Rising and Lovenormoney.

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