Saturday 6th January

Any comments on today's racing. Please don't just put in selections ... please add some reason why you think a runner will win
Devasteve
Posts: 546
Joined: Fri Jan 16, 2015 8:29 am

Saturday 6th January

Postby Devasteve » Sat Jan 06, 2018 12:10 pm

Let' see if we can get pointed in the right direction, although once more study has been disrupted by that horrible W word. As such there's only two and not four races as intended. So fingers crossed that something at least makes the frame.

Chepstow 14.05 Gr 3 Hcap Chase 854 (151) 29.5f hv – 20 Run

Last year – 854 (155) sf 20 ran
Native River 11/4 F 6-11-12 (155) by 1.75l from Raz De Maree 33/1 11-10-7 (139)
Vicente 12/1 7-11-8 (151) was 26.5l 6th
Bishops Road 16/1 8-11-11 (154) was 46.25l 10th
Emperors Choice 33/1 9-10-7 (139) PU before 16th
MIlansbar 16/1 9-11-2 (145) tailed off and PU before 5 out

Chase The Spud 10-11-9 (148)
25 Nov Cl 2 Hcap Chase (317 d) 25.5f hv Hayd (144) 6/1 6l 1/8 off 139
Led, headed 2nd, remained prominent, regained lead 12th, pressed 3 out, drew clear approaching last, stayed on well
Put in a career best when winning the Midland National off 130 on final start in March; returned in the same vein of form when setting a further career best on his return at Haydock in last November off a 9lbs higher mark; has been raised a further 9lbs for that, but conditions suit.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (42 days); career best lto;
Minus: course; up 9lbs; up in class; UK bred;
Verdict: (52) proven stayer in these conditions and a possible contender despite the weight.
Wild West Wind 9-11-3 (142)
09 Dec Cl 2 Hcap Chase (127 u) 23.5f hv Chep (148) 6/1 1.75l 1/10 off 138
Tracked leader until led 9th, left clear 4 out, 8 lengths up when hit next, soon driven, reduced lead between last 2, ridden out flat
Has won 3 of his 4 chase starts to date, the latest being the Trial here when recording a career best in beating a number of proven stayers such as Alfie Spinner (-3) and Milansbar (-1); carries a 4lbs penalty for that, but it would be a surprise if he didn’t confirm that running.
Plus: going (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (28 days); career best lto; Ire bred;
Minus: class (?); 4lbs penalty; up in class;
Verdict: (51) promising young stayer but a little unexposed (5th chase start) and perhaps not the strongest contender stepping up to this class.
Beware The Bear 8-11-10 (149)
02 Dec List Hcap Chase (401 u) 23.5f sf Nwcs (150) 11/4 F 2.25l 1/8 off 145
Held up behind leading group, not fluent 9th, not fluent and outpaced when saddle slipped backwards 12th, 8 lengths fifth when not fluent 3 out (usual 4 out), rallied 2 out, led on landing after last, driven and stayed on well
Second-season chaser who recorded a career best when taking the Rehearsal from Bishops Road (-1) on his return at Newcastle early last month; carries a 4lbs penalty for that but could well have more to give and may confirm that running; won a mdn hd on only other start on today’s ground.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (35 days); career best lto; Ire bred;
Minus: course (?); 4lbs penalty;
Verdict: (49) Fit and in form, but has enough weight to carry in today’s conditions and not the strongest contender perhaps.
Bishops Road 10-11-5 (144)
02 Dec List Hcap Chase (401 u) 23.5f sf Nwcs (150) 9/2 2.25l 2/8 off 144
Not fluent on occasions, prominent, headway to lead 2 out, soon ridden, headed last, kept on same pace run-in
Runs off the same mark as when taking the National trial at Haydock back in 2016; made too many jumping errors in last year’s renewal, although was off a 10lbs higher mark; showed himself to fully effective off this mark though when only just going down to Beware The Bear (+1) on his return in the Rehearsal last month and meets him on 4lbs better terms today; a little older and more exposed than most past winners, but stable has a good record in the race and not ignored.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); form run lto (35 days); Ire bred;
Minus: course;
Verdict: (36) useful stayer in these conditions and not discounted off a 10lbs lower mark than last year, a contender.
Vintage Clouds 8-11-1 (140)
25 Nov Cl 2 Chase (325) 21.5f hv Hayd (148) 3/1 Jt F 7l 2/6 off 140
Led, headed 6th, handy, jumped carefully 8th, jumped slowly 10th, rallied to lead approaching 4 out, pressed next, headed 2 out, unable to go with winner after last, stayed on same pace
Recorded his first chase success when a large margin winner over 25f at Aintree on his return in October and not disgraced when unable to go with Clan Des Obeaux over a shorter trip at Haydock the following month; jumped better in those 2 starts than last season when jumping errors cost him on occasions.
Plus: going (F); distance (W); form run lto (42 days);
Minus: class; course (?); up in class;
Verdict: (29) yet to prove he can do it at this level, but improvement likely based on this season’s form and a contender.

As this is only 10 days late in running, I’ll move my age range to 7yo to 9yo, while demanding a top 4 finish lto that was run 16 to 60 days ago. The other thing I should keep note of is that no horse has carried over 11-0 to victory in heavy ground. Of those that didn’t make the shortlist, Mysteree hasn’t run since finishing runner-up to Chase The Spud (-3) in the Midlands National and meets him on 13lbs better terms today, but despite his past record first time up I just can’t see him taking this under these conditions. Similarly I have my doubts about Beware The Bear giving Henderson his first Welsh National winner with the weight he has to carry and similar thoughts extend to Chase The Spud, despite the ideal conditions. Like the Midlands National, the Trial here has been a good pointer to past winners, but with only 4 chases under his belt I wonder if Wild West Wind has the experience to cope with a field of this size and quality – he only had 9 opponents when winning the trail. Bishops Road is a little outside both my age and weight parameters, but has been given a chance by the handicapper and the stable knows what’s needed to win this. The other one I have a sneaking fancy for is Vintage Clouds despite having a few more lbs weight than ideal. Thus I’d put my faith in Vintage Clouds from Bishops Road and Chase The Spud and would be delighted if one actually made the frame.

Sandown 15.00 Cl 2 Hcap Chase 619 (156) 24f hv – 15 Run (14 at best)

Last year – 619 (149) sf 16 ran
Pete The Feat 20/1 13-10-1 (124) by 2l from Theatrical Star 7/1 11-10-4 (127)
Loose Chips 16/1 11-10-13 (136) was 5.75l 3rd
Gas Line Boy 7/1 11-11-8 (145) was 7.5l 4th
Cloudy Too 8/1 11-11-3 (140) was 14.5l 5th

Gas Line Boy 12-11-4 (148)
09 Dec Cl 2 Hcap Chase (433 u) 21f hv Aint (144) 9/2 F 4.5l 1/11 off 142
Held up, pecked 13th (Valentine's Brook), headway 14th, hit 4 out and hampered by faller, tracked leaders 2 out, switched and led approaching last, pushed along run-in, soon clear, ridden at elbow, stayed on well
Runs off a 3lbs higher mark than when 4th to Pete The Feat (-21) in last year’s renewal, but has displayed some fine form since, particularly at Aintree where he put up a career best in winning the Grand Sefton there last month; has been raised 6lbs for that but seems to be maturing with age.
Plus: class (w); going (W); distance (W); course (F); trainer (C); form run lto (28 days); career best lto;
Minus: up 6lbs;
Verdict: (47) seems in the form of his life at present and a definite contender.
Benbens 13-10-8 (138)
09 Dec Cl 2 Hcap Chase (310 u) 29f gd/sf Sand (148) 14/1 0.25l 1/10 off 135
Looked well, made virtually all, joined usual 3 out, better jump last (usual 2 out) and driven 3 lengths clear, lead dwindled near finish but clung on gamely
Just the 3 starts last season but 3/30 in the Scottish National and 4/13 in the Bet365 Gold Cup here were top class efforts; needed a couple olf starts to find his feet this term, but held on well to deny Sugar Baron over 29f here last month; has been raised 3lbs for that, but just wonder if the drop back in trip might be a bigger handicap.
Plus: class (W); going (F); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (28 days);
Minus: up 3lbs; drop in trip;
Verdict: (45) not sure the demanding ground really suits, plus may prefer further nowadays and not the strongest contender perhaps.
Houblons des Obeaux 11-10-13 (143)
09 Dec Cl 2 Hcap Chase (310 u) 29f gd/sf Sand (148) 7/1 8.75l 6/10 off 143
Chased leading trio, ridden usual 4 out, faded from next
Won over 24f here on his return in November and followed up by finishing 6/10 to Benbens here lto; however, has never won beyond 24f and while he has placed form over further may appreciate this drop back in trip more than Benbens.
Plus: class (W); going (F); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); from run lto (28 days);
Minus:
Verdict: (44) has something to find with Benbens but better suited by this trip and a contender.
Perfect Candidate 11-11-12 (156)
18 Nov Gr 3 Hcap Chase (285 d) 27.5f sf Chelt (166) 7/1 0.25l 1/8 off 152
Chased leaders, went 2nd after 13th, reminder after 16th, challenged 18th, led after 3 out, 2 1/2 lengths up last, soon driven, held on, very game
Continues to pay his way and it was a gutsy performance to hold off Vicente at Cheltenham in November; Benbens (-15) was nigh on 20l back; raised 4lbs for that and has been given plenty of time to get over it; should have no trouble with the ground and has carried this weight to victory in the past.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (49 days); down in class
Minus: course (?); up 4lbs;
Verdict: (42) not always the type to follow up, but should be considered a contender.
Pete The Feat 14-10-0 (130)
08 Dec Cl 3 Hcap Chase (90 d) 24f gd/sf Sand (131) 25/1 2.75l 1/11 off 127
Tracked leaders, pushed along briefly 4 out, progress to lead 3 out, soon in command, encouraged along from last and kept on splendidly
Runs off a 6lbs higher mark than when winning last year’s renewal and that’s a big ask for a 14yo; win over C&D here last month was only an amateur riders affair and thus the 3lbs rise not ideal.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (29 days);
Minus: up 3lbs; up in class;
Verdict: (42) gallant veteran but mark may be against him this time round and not the strongest contender.

There appears to be money for Cloudy Too, although why I fail to see based on this season’s form, although he is 10lbs lower than when a distant 5th in last year’s renewal. However, it’s nigh on two years since he won over fences and wouldn’t be carrying my money today. Neither for that matter would last year’s winner Pete The Feat, or Benbens who might find the trip a little on the short side. Thus I’d prefer to go with Houblons Des Obeaux who has conditions to suit, from Gas Line Boy and perhaps Perfect Candidate filling out the frame.

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