Saturday 20th January

Any comments on today's racing. Please don't just put in selections ... please add some reason why you think a runner will win
Devasteve
Posts: 546
Joined: Fri Jan 16, 2015 8:29 am

Saturday 20th January

Postby Devasteve » Sat Jan 20, 2018 11:23 am

Having a rather bleak start to the year and today doesn't seem likely to improve matters with a tricky chase at Haydock and another of those 'orrible hurdles at Ascot! Still, the luck will change one day I guess.

Ascot 14.25 Gr 3 Hcap Hurdle 285 (147) 19.5f sf – 14 Run

Air Horse One 7-11-12 (147)
23 Dec Gr 3 Hcap Hdl (854 u) 15.5f gd/sf Ascot (151) 10/1 43.5l 15/17 off 147
Prominent, lost place from 4th, well in rear and struggling after 3 out, soon behind
02 Dec Cl 2 Hcap Hdl (260 u) 20.5f gd/sf Newb (149) 7/2 Jt F 2.85l 3/12 off 145
Tracked leaders, ridden after 2 out, kept on from last but not pace to get to winner, just held for 2nd
Showed much promise last season including win over C&D here on sf in the February and then 4/35 in the County Hurdle at the Festival; has been harder going this time round although placed on his first 2 starts before disappointing here lto when a mixture of the shorter trip[ and firmer ground may have been against him; nevertheless, has it all to do off this mark and likely to find a less-exposed sort down the handicap a mite too good.
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent form run (49 days);
Minus: no form run lto;
Verdict: (42) obviously has ability, but needs a career best off this mark and not perhaps the strongest contender.
Jenkins 6-11-8 (143)
13 Jan Cl 3 Hcap Hdl (62 d) 16f sf Kemp (139) 7/2 5l 1/9 off 132
Took keen hold, jumped right, made all, reminder before 2 out, jumped right and mistake 2 out, in command and jumped right again last, stayed on well
Has won half his starts over hurdles, but after disappointing in first 2 starts this season he has to be dropped to a Cl 3 at Kempton last week and first-time blinkers fitted before he could get back on the winning track with a career best; won easily enough, but was not flawless and off an 11lbs higher mark over 3.5f further will not find this as simple back up 2 classes.
Plus: going (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (7 days); career best lto;
Minus: class; distance (?); course (?); up 11lbs; up 2 classes;
Verdict: (39) impressive though he was last week, hard to see him favourite tackling a new trip up 11 lbs and 2 classes; not the strongest contender to me.
Crossed My Mind 6-10-3 (124)
09 Dec List Hcap Hdl (338 u) 16f gd/sf Sand (140) 100/30 F 4.5l 3/11 off 123
Tracked leaders, ridden well before 2 out where disputed 2nd, one pace under pressure before last
Won a mdn Hd at Wexford last March and has finished 3rd in both his starts this term, the latest a Listed HHd at Sandown last month when Caid Du Lin (+2) was 4l ahead in 2nd; the latter was woeful though when upped to a Gr 3 here before Christmas; both have to show the longer trip will suit, but with 7lb-claimers aboard both CMM has a 9lbs pull in the weights today.
Plus: going (F); distance (F); form run lto (42 days); career best lto;
Minus: class (?); course (?); up 1lb; up in class;
Verdict: (39) promise on place efforts this term and a contender.
Night Of Sin 5-10-11 (132)
21 Dec Cl 3 Hcap Hdl (78 d) 18.5f sf Exe (129) 9/2 1.75l 2/10 off 127
Led, ridden and headed approaching 3 out, kept on but always being held from 2 out
Back to form at Exeter last month, which strengthens the belief that he needs sf ground to be seen at this best; has been raised 5lbs for that, plus is up a couple of classes , but could possibly have improve again.
Plus: going (W); distance (F); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (30 days);
Minus: class (?); course; up 5lbs; up 2 classes;
Verdict: (35) has his ground, but will need another career best to compete today and not the strongest contender perhaps.
Oxwich Bay 6-10-3 (124)
18 Dec Cl 4 Mdn Hdl (39 d) 20f hv Ffos Las (121) 8/11 F 3.5l 1/10 off 121
Held up, steady headway 5th, tracked leader 3 out, led just after 2 out, ridden out flat
Bumper winner who has never been out of the frame over hurdles, getting off the mark at the fifth attempt when dropped back to a mdn hurdle but upped to 20f in demanding conditions at Ffos Las last month; has been raised a modest 3lbs for that and goes way up in class, but as he had previously been runner-up in a Cl 2 NHHd at Cheltenham, the class rise may not be insurmountable; one of the less-exposed contenders that may be in with a chance.
Plus: going (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); form run lto (33 days);
Minus: class (?); course (?); up 3lbs; up 3 classes;
Verdict: (34) has made a promising start to hurdles career and now that he has got his head in front could be involved here under a useful conditional, a contender.
Le Breuil 6-11-4 (139)
09 Dec Cl 2 Hcap Hdl (155 u) 20f hv Aint (139) Ev F 6l 1/4 off 139
Led, jinked at marker on bend before 6th, headed 2 out, rallying when jumped slowly last, one pace run-in
Twice a winner at around this distance on sf last season and was not disgraced when runner-up to a smart sort at Aintree on second run back – winner has since won again; runs off the same mark here in what look ideal conditions.
Plus: going (W); distance (W); trainer (C); form run lto (42 days);
Minus: class; course (?); up in class;
Verdict: (33) conditions suit and not without a chance, a contender.

I can’t see Jenkins as favourite and while he may have got his act together, he looks no good thing here to me, so that’s a pass; Night Of Sin is another who may go well, but I just can’t see among those with the strongest chances. I can’t rule out Air Horse One despite top weight, although he may well have to give best to one of the lesser exposed sorts such as Oxwich Bay or Le Breuil. However, the one I think they may all have to beat is the Irish contender Crossed My Mind, while as an outside contender for the frame I’d not put anyone off Man Of Plenty who has some good placed form to his name in HHd from 16f to 20f. So in the sort of race I like to give a miss, I’m going for Crossed My Mind from Air Horse One and Oxwich Bay and Man Of Plenty as a live outsider.

Haydock 15.15 Gr 2 Hcap Chase 427 (153) 25.5f hv – 13 Run

Last year – 285 (162) sf – 14 ran
Bristol De Mai 4/1 F 6-11-2 (154) by 22l from Otago Trail 11/1 9-10-10 (151)

Rock The Kasbah 8-11-6 (149)
14 Oct Cl 2 Hcap (195 d) 23.5f gd/sf Chep (160) 2/1 F 2l 1/13 off 142
Tracked leaders, ridden and steady progress from 14th, challenged 2 out, driven to lead narrowly and jumped right last, soon forged clear, gamely
Promising first season over fences capped by a staying on 6/13 in the Bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown in April; showed his well-being with a career best on return at Chepstow in October, for which he has been raised 7lbs; however, has not been seen since, missing the rearranged Welsh National for this; has won on sf, but unproven on hv despite having placed form in a NHd.
Plus: Class (F); going (Fh); distance (F); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto; career best lto;
Minus: course (?); 98-day break; up 7lbs; up in class;
Verdict: (47) weight, going and break are all questions, but not entirely dismissed.
Walk In The Mill 8-10-12 (141)
23 Dec List Hcap Chase (570 u) 24f gd/sf Ascot (156) 9/1 3l 4/14 off 139
Prominent, not fluent 11th, led after 14th, ridden 3 out, headed after 2 out, kept on same pace under pressure
Had Yala Enki (+7) and Ptit Zig (+17) behind him when a good 3rd at Ascot last month and meets them on 1lb and 5lbs worse terms, respectively; had won over the same C&D when upped to 24f for the first time the previous month; although he’s won on sf, only distant placed efforts on his pair of efforts on more demanding ground; ability to see how this trip must be taken on trust too.
Plus: distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (28 days); career best lto;
Minus: class; going; course (?); up 2lbs; up in class;
Verdict: (41) appears to have improved for the rise in trip, but still to prove capabilities over this trip in demanding ground; nevertheless, another possible contender.
Forest Des Aigles 7-10-4 (133)
15 Dec Cl 3 Hcap Chase (65 d) 24f hv Bang (134) 5/6 F 6l 1/4 off 125
Made all, joined approaching 2 out, asserting when mistake last, stayed on well to draw clear after
Improving 7yo chaser who has won all 3 starts this year, the latest a career best when upped to 24f for the first time; the way he pulled away suggests that he may well see out the extra distance today; however, that was only a Cl 3 and it’s a big jump to a Gr 2 today.
Plus: going (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (36 days); career best lto;
Minus: class (?); course (?); up 8lbs; up 2 classes;
Verdict: (41) improving young French-bred chaser, but this is a far more demanding task than he has faced to date; nevertheless, not discounted as a contender.
Captain Redbeard 9-11-1 (144)
23 Dec Cl 2 Hcap Chase (157 d) 23f hv Hayd (139) 14/1 6l 1/9 off 135
Tracked leaders until went 2nd 9th, left in lead 12th, made rest, 3 lengths lead 4 out, 2 lengths advantage 2 out, asserted approaching last, briefly ridden and came clear run-in
Has recorded 2 of his 3 chase wins here, the latest over 23f here last month when he came away from the field after the last in similar conditions; has been raised 9lbs for that and is up not only in class but also has a further 2.5f to negotiate today; riders claim drops the weight below the 11-0 mark.
Plus: going (W); course (W); trainer (C); form run lto (28 days); career best lto;
Minus: class (?); distance (?); up 9lbs; up in class;
Verdict: (40) ground holds no terrors, but whether he can stay the extra distance at this level is the question; nevertheless, another possible contender.
Hainan 7-10-11 (140)
25 Nov Cl 3 Hcap Chase (162 u) 28.5f hv Hayd (136) 13/2 12l 1/8 off 132
Chased leaders, led after 4th, headed 8th, regained lead before 10th, made rest, drew clear before 4 out, stayed on well, pushed out run-in
Back to winning ways over 28.5f here in similar conditions back in November, setting a career best in the process; however, both his chase win have come in Cl 3 and upped to this level for the first time.
Plus: going (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto; career best lto;
Minus: class (?); 56-day break; up 8lbs; up 2 classes;
Verdict: (39) no problems with going or distance, but faces his stiffest task to date, although still a possible contender.
Yala Enki 8-11-4 (147)
23 Dec List Hcap Chase (570 u) 24f gd/sf Ascot (156) 12/1 22.75l 6/14 off 149
Chased leader, not fluent 12th, left in lead briefly 14th, chased leader to 4 out, weakened
Won the 2016 Tommy Whittle her off 139 and won over 25f on hv at Kelso in March off 146; PU in the Badger Ales on his return and was then 3rd in the Rehearsal at Newcastle on sf; little disappointing in first-time cheek-pieces at Ascot last month when behind Walk In The Mill (-7), but will be better suited by today’s demanding conditions and headgear removed today.
Plus: going (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (C); recent form run (49 days); down 2lbs;
Minus: class;
Verdict: (35) yet to win at this level but a proven stayer in the conditions and a contender.

With the ground likely to be demanding in the extreme, I think we can draw a line through those at the top of the handicap as no horse has ever carried 11-7 or more to victory in hv conditions. This, by the way, is another race where it pays to keep an eye on those ridden by claiming jockeys, as they have been successful in 5 of the last 9 renewals. Another point to remember is that no horse has been successful that hadn’t won one of its last 6 starts, most having won one of the last 3. Other points to note are that in general the successful horse had its last run in December onwards, plus had 2 to 5 outing since August, plus Bristol Du Mai last year was the first winner in 16 years below 8yo.

Taking all that into account, plus the fact he’s never won on hv, I’ll have to pass on Rock The Kasbah. I’m a little undecided about Hainan, as Sue Smith as a good record in the race and the horse is proven over further here in the conditions, but is a 7yo who hasn’t run since November and is going up a long way in class. Thus, on balance I’ll pass, as I also will with Captain Redbeard who may find the extra 9lbs beyond him in this ground. Of the remaining trio, Forest des Aigles has a lot against him as a7yo going up in class, but there’s no knowing what he might eventually turn out to be. However, on this occasion I’ll assign the minor placing as I believe that Walk In The Mill has the best chance and may again finish in front of Venetia’s Yala Enki who will enjoy conditions here more than at Ascot. So Walk In The Mill from Yala Enki and Forest des Aigles and fingers crossed I’ve got one right for once!

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