Saturday 27th January

Any comments on today's racing. Please don't just put in selections ... please add some reason why you think a runner will win
Devasteve
Posts: 546
Joined: Fri Jan 16, 2015 8:29 am

Saturday 27th January

Postby Devasteve » Sat Jan 27, 2018 11:53 am

Fortunately, today marks the last Saturday of what has been a month of struggle in trying to pick the first ones past the post. While it would be nice to go out with a bang, I think it more prudent to hope February will bring better results!

Cheltenham 13.50 Gr 3 Hcap Chase 427 (154) 21f sf – 14 Run

Last year – 342 (156) sf 13 ran
Foxtail Hill 12/1 8-10-0 (133) by 1l from Saphir Du Rheu 6/1 8-11-9 (153)
Shantou Flyer 6/1 7-11-2 (156) was 10.5l 4th

Frodon 6-11-12 (154)
23 Dec List Hcap Chase (570 u) 24f gd/sf Ascot (156) 8/1 3l 2/14 off 151
Tracked leaders, went 2nd 4 out, ridden to lead after 2 out, outjumped and headed last, one pace flat
Had an excellent novice season winning 6 of his 9 starts including the Caspian Caviar Gold Cup over C&D here in similar conditions; yet to get his head in front this season, but doesn’t look far away based on last 2 starts, going down by only 3l to the progressive Gold Present over 24f at Ascot last month with O O Seven (+7) a further 7l adrift in 4th; only 2lbs worse off with OOS today and equally effective over this trip.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (35 days);
Minus: up 3lbs; up in class;
Verdict: (56) still improving despite no wins this season and a contender here.
O O Seven 8-11-10 (152)
23 Dec List Hcap Chase (570 u) 24f gd/sdf Ascot (156) 11/1 11l 4/14 off 153
In touch in midfield, effort 15th, ridden 3 out, kept on one pace and no danger to leaders
Won 2 of his 5 novice starts last season and made a promising return over 20f at Newbury in early December; however, may have found the 24f stretching his stamina at Ascot lto and has something to find with Frodon on that running; nevertheless, drop in trip should suit and did win on sf over hurdles.
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent form run (57 days); down 1lb;
Minus: up in class;
Verdict: (46) chance if improving for drop in trip, so a contender.
Shantou Flyer 8 -11-11 (153)
01 Jan Gr 3 Hcap Chase (427 u) 21f hv Chelt (154) 8/1 1.75l 2/9 off 152
Chased leaders, lost place after 3rd, headway 7th, mistake and outpaced 13th, rallied to chase winner 2 out, stayed on same pace towards finish
Back to form in first-time cheek-pieces lto, although a major factor may also have been the return to a more suitable trip having failed to complete 3 of his previous 4 starts at 24f and above; nevertheless, finishing less than 2l runner-up to Ballyhill (-17) was his best performance since taking the race the previous year off a 3lbs lower mark; meets B on 2lbs better terms so it should be close between the pair.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); form run lto (26 days);
Minus: up 1lb;
Verdict: (42) better suited to this trip and a chance on most recent running, a contender.
Ballyhill 7-10-10 (138)
01 Jan Gr 3 Hcap Chase (427 u) 21f hv Chelt (154) 9/1 1.75l 1/9 off 133
Held up, headway 10th, led 3 out, edged left flat, ridden out
Got off the mark at the fifth attempt over fences when seeing off Shantou Flyer (+17) over C&D here on hv lto; raised 5lbs for that but wonder if he’ll be as effective on this somewhat better ground, as his career record is 0/5 on sf.
Plus: class (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (C); form run lto (26 days);
Minus: up 5lbs; trainer (14d 1/27);
Verdict: (39) rise in weight looks fair enough, but question about whether ground will be soft enough and current trainer form make him a contender with questions.
King’s Odyssey 9-10-11 (139)
16 Dec Gr 3 Hcap Chase (683 u) 21f sf Chelt (155) 9/1 7.75l 3/10 off 140
Tracked leaders, left in narrow lead before 2 out, soon ridden, headed between last 2, kept on same pace
Won a NHCh over C&D off today’s mark at this meeting 2 years ago, but hadn’t shown much in 5 subsequent starts until 3rd to Guitar Pete in the Caspian Caviar Gold Cup over C&D here on hv in mid-December; runs off 1lb less today, so must be considered if coming on for that as conditions all suit.
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (W); course (W); form run lto (42 days); down 1lb;
Minus: trainer (14d 1/20);
Verdict: (39) has to be considered if coming on for latest run here, a contender.

The likely Coo Star Sivola has something to prove in my book despite promising efforts in his three chases to date, as 2/4 in a Cl 2 novice hardly proves his credentials to be favourite for a 14-runner Gr 3 HCh. I would much prefer the chances of Casse Tete despite his atrocious jumping on his return, as he looked a promising performing when hacking up at Sandown in March. Still, returning to my shortlist, I can’t see O O Seven reversing latest running with Frodon, nor for that matter can I see Ballyhill confirming running with Shantou Flyer on today’s ground. So that’s two gone and it’s matter of getting the other three in the right order, which I haven’t been doing of late. However, I see Frodon as the obvious class horse and take him to see off King’s Odyssey and Shantou Flyer.

Doncaster 15.15 Listed Hcap Chase 456 (157) 24f sf – 14 Run

Last year – 456 (152) gd 14 ran
Ziga Boy 101/1 8-10-11 (137) by 3.5l from Looking Well 18/1 8-10-1 (132)
Coologue 12/1 8-11-5 (145) was 33l 8th

L’Ami Serge 8-11-7 (152)
23 Dec Gr 1 Hdl (570 s) 24.5f gd/sf Asc (167) 5/1 2.75l 2/8 off 159
Held up in last pair, good progress from 3 out to track winner after 2 out, ridden after last, limited response and no impression flat
Has run well in high class hurdles races this past year, the latest when runner-up on the Long Walk Hurdle at Ascot last month; now returns to chasing for the first time in over a year, off 1lb less than when he was seen over fences; show promise in that sphere being 3/9 in the 2016 JLT Novices at Cheltenham and runner-up in the Manifesto Novices at Aintree; makes his hcap debut today off a reasonable mark for a Gr 1 novice winner who has won on sf and shown he stays this far over hurdles.
Plus: class (F+); going (Wh); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (35 days); down 1lb;
Minus: distance (?); course (?); return to chasing after long break;
Verdict: (47) always a question as to whether he will respect the fences after such a spell over hurdles and while he has to be considered on best novice form, not sure he has a favourite’s chance as a contender.
Wakanda 9-11-0 (145)
26 Dec Gr 3 Hcap Chase (229 d) 24f sf Weth (152) 7/2 0.1l 2/8 off 144
Prominent, ridden 4 out, driven to lead narrowly 2 out, hit last and headed, stayed on, just failed
Hasn’t won since completing a hat-trick off 151 at Ascot in 2015, but has looked to be coming back to form this season and was only just denied in the Rowland Meyrick at Wetherby on Boxing Day; has been raised 1lb for that , but still well in on his early chasing form.
Plus: class (W); going (W); course (W); course (F); form run lto (32 days); down in class;
Minus: up 1lb; not won since 2015;
Verdict: (43) this is possibly as far as he wants and goes well on sf, a contender.
Pilgrims Bay 8-10-4 (135)
27 Dec Cl 2 Hcap Chase (250 d) 24f sf Kemp (142) 9/2 2.75 2/7 off 135
Prominent, ridden 4 out, driven to lead narrowly 2 out, hit last and headed, stayed on, just failed
Not always the most fluent of jumpers, but won the Betbright at Kempton last February and has shown improving form over all three starts this term, the latest a career best effort when runner-up at Kempton over Christmas; runs off the same mark today, although will need to improve a little going up in class.
Plus: class (W+); going (F); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (31 days); career best lto;
Minus: course (?); up in class; not won LH;
Verdict: (42) second-year chaser who has shown continued improvement this season and while more needed today is a contender.
Warriors Tale 9-11-2 (147)
02 Dec Cl 2 Hcap Chase (250 d) 22.5f gd/sf Newb (144) 10/1 0.25l 2/12 off 143
Mid-division, headway after 13th, ridden to take narrow advantage between last 2, headed final 75yds, stayed on
Improving sort who recorded a career best when runner-up to Gold Present over 22.5f at Newbury early last month, the winner franking the form by going on to win again at Ascot when upped in both class and trip; has been raised 4lbs for Newbury effort and is up in class, but could be more to come going back up to this trip – won a 4-runner novice over 24f.
Plus: going (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (56 days); career best lto;
Minus: class; course (?); up 4lbs; up in class;
Verdict: (38) improving sort who may have more to offer at this trip, a contender.
Vibrato Valtat 9-11-4 (149)
16 Dec Cl 2 Hcap Chase (156 d) 24f gd Donc (150) 11/1 0.25l 2/9 off 145
Midfield, headway 4 out, led narrowly 3 out, soon ridden, headed last, stayed on but always just held
Did not fulfil early promise with the Nicholls yard, but seems to have recaptured some of his old zest since joining Emma Lavelle, improving with each run this term; the latest was when narrowly beaten by Mustmeetalady (-17) over C&D here last month, but likely to reverse that running on 2lbs better terms and softer ground; whether that will be good enough to win this is another matter, although does run off an 8lbs lower mark than for his last win back in November 2015; going suits and appears to stay the trip.
Plus: class (W+); going (W); distance (F); course (F); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (42);
Minus: up 4lbs; up in class; not won since 2015;
Verdict: change of stable has revitalised and while more needed up in class today, a contender.

The past 11 winners had all won a chase on a LH track and over at least 24f, while all had had 1 to 4 starts in the current season. That’s not a lot of help, but it does give me reason to doubt the claims of Thumb Stone Blues who despite showing promise is 0/3 over fences. I also have doubts about Pilgrims Bay as his two chase wins have come at RH Sandown and Kempton, plus he needs to come from a long way back. L’Ami Serge is a tricky one to figure out as he’s a very talented hurdler, but hasn’t run over fences in over a year. True, he showed much promise over the larger obstacles, but whether that entitles him to be favourite here I’m not sure. It’s a few years since either Vibrato Valtat or Wakanda got their head in front, but both have shown a new liking for the game this term and may be thereabouts today. However, they’re both seasoned chasers with over 20 starts, more than any of the past 11 winners. So while I would prefer Wakanda of the pair, by a process of elimination I’m going for Warriors Tale who put in a career best at Newbury lto and with the form having been franked looks the best option here. So for me it’s Warriors Tale from perhaps L’Ami Serge and Wakanda

Doncaster 15.50 Cl 2 Hcap Chase 313 (156) 16.5f sf – 9 Run

Last year – 313 (143) gd 8 ran
Upilson Bleu 11/2 9-11-12 (142) by 1.5l from Double W’s 9/2 7-11-9 (139)

Upilson Bleu 10-10-12 (142)
01 Jan Cl2 Hcap Chase (195 d) 20f gd/sf Muss (145) 4/1 1.25l 2/6 off 142
Prominent, mistake 6th, led before 3 out, hard pressed next, just headed when not fluent last, rallied, one pace last 100yds
Runs off the same mark as when taking last year’s renewal and showed himself to be in good form at Musselburgh on New Year’s Day.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (C); form run lto (26 days);
Minus:
Verdict: (50) Age has yet to dim desire and a contender.
Bigmatre 7-11-1 (145)
01 Dec Cl 3 Nov Hcap Chase (130 u) 16.5f gd/sf Newb (139) 4/1 4.5l 1/5 off 137
Jumped well if slightly right at times, led until 3rd, tracked leader, led after 8th, hampered by loose horse 4 out, ridden after 2 out, kept on well
French import in 2015 and a winning hurdler till put to fences this term and has won both starts, the latest a NHCh at Newbury in fine style; has been raised 8lbs for that, but one suspects that there’s much more to come.
Plus: going (Fh); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (57 days); career best lto;
Minus: class (?); course (?); up 8lbs; up in class;
Verdict: (48) looks to be promising sort and can’t be ruled out as a contender on hcap debut.
Foxtail Hill 9-11-1 (145)
Tough one to figure when he’ll be on his day, as he was when winning a Cl 2 at around this distance at Cheltenham in October; however, has been disappointing in a pair of Gr 3 hcaps there since, although both were over further; nevertheless, had won at that distance before; may have a chance dropped back in trip, but that’s rather speculative.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); recent outing (42 days); down 2lbs; down in class;
Minus: course (?); 91 days since form run;
Verdict: (40) not impossible he could return to form, but a doubtful contender.
Duke Of Navan 10-10-10 (140)
27 Dec Cl 2 Hcap Chase (149 d) 15f sf Weth (143) 9/2 1.75l 2/6 off 140
Raced keenly and led, ridden after 3 out, strongly pressed last, headed 50yds out, one pace
Not won since April 2015, although has only had 6 starts since and was definitely thereabouts at Wetherby over Christmas; this is tougher, but runs off the same mark so can’t be ignored.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); trainer (C); form run lto (31 days);
Minus: course (?);
Verdict: (38) claims on Wetherby running and a contender.

Last year’s runner-up Double W’s runs off 1lb higher mark, but has never tackled anything softer than gd/sf , plus has been well out of it in both starts this term. I’m thus passing, as I am on the others in the field, to which I’ll also add Foxtail Hill. So I’m going for Upsilon Bleu to complete the double at the main expense of Bigmatre with Duke Of Navan completing the frame.

martinkil
Posts: 3415
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Re: Saturday 27th January

Postby martinkil » Sun Jan 28, 2018 7:57 am

Nice winner - and oh so close with Warrior, but you had the combi tricast and two out of the three in the frame in your last

Devasteve
Posts: 546
Joined: Fri Jan 16, 2015 8:29 am

Re: Saturday 27th January

Postby Devasteve » Sun Jan 28, 2018 3:06 pm

Yes Martin a frustrating day all round as taking the combi trio in each race I had the first three home in the first two races and the forecast in the last,but just the one winner - right horse, wrong order again!!

Stew008
Posts: 7
Joined: Mon Nov 06, 2017 9:45 am

Re: Saturday 27th January

Postby Stew008 » Wed Jan 31, 2018 10:12 am

I am trying a new system at the moment which seems to be working to a point, hopefully if it continues going well i will message Martin to see if we can find a way to incorporate it into the cards. it has given a few winners so far but not in every race but the winners do tend to stand out and work well.


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