Sunday 4th February

Any comments on today's racing. Please don't just put in selections ... please add some reason why you think a runner will win
Devasteve
Posts: 546
Joined: Fri Jan 16, 2015 8:29 am

Sunday 4th February

Postby Devasteve » Sun Feb 04, 2018 11:43 am

Sorry to go missing yesterday, but I’d just finished the Sandown hurdle when I lost my internet – apparently a traffic accident wiped out the cable connection to our area and it wasn’t until late morning today that internet and television connection was restored. You missed little however, as while my shortlist contained the first four home, I again failed to get the winner in the top two!!

So obviously needing more practice, I had a look at this one at Musselburgh today. You have been warned!

Musselburgh 15.10 Cl 2 Hcap Hurdle 130 (142) 26f sf – 12 Run (11 at best)

Last year – 143 (146) gd 11 ran
El Bandit 15/2 6-11-5 (139) by 0.05; from Arthurs Secret 7/1 7-9-7 (120)

Stamp Your Feet 6-11-5 (135)
01 Jan Cl 3 Hcap Hdl (120 d) 24f gd/sf Muss (137) 4/1 0.75l 2/9 off 132
Held up on inside, steady headway after 4 out, effort and switched right before 2 out, chased winner after last, closed last 150yds, held towards finish
Had Tantamount (-5) and Arthurs Secret (-17) behind him in 5th and 6th, respectively, when putting up a career best to be narrowly beaten by Cresswell Legend (-5) here on New Year’s Day; raised 3lbs for that, but meets the winner on 1lb better terms today as both step up to this new trip; has previously won on sf ground and at this level, however, so nothing new on that score, plus rider won on him at Haydock back last April, stable could be in better form though (1/15).
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (F); course (F); trainer (C); form run lto (34 days); career best lto;
Minus: up 3lbs; up in class;
Verdict: (45) improving young hurdler for JP McManus and proven on the going, so a possible contender if staying the longer trip.
Jump For Dough 7-10-1 (117)
19 Jan Cl 4 Hcap Hdl (41 s) 24f sf Muss (110) 6/5 F 6l 1/6 off 110
Jumped well, made all, pushed clear from 2 out, comfortably
Irish import in October and after failing to fire in first 2 starts over fences has won both his hurdle starts over 24f here under today’s provisional, setting successive career bests; has been raised 7lbs for his latest success and is obvious a lot better than that level, but this much tougher opposition today, plus his rider won’t be able to claim his full 10lbs’ nevertheless. is obviously improving and can’t be ignored in this field.
Plus: going (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (16 days); career best lto;
Minus: class (?); up 7lbd; up 2 classes;
Verdict: up a long way in class, but can’t be ignored while still winning and a contender.
Cresswell Legend 7-11-1 (131)
01 Jan Cl 3 Hcap Hdl (120 d) 24f gd/sf Muss (137) 9/4 F 0.75l 1/9 off 127
Close up, led 10th, made rest, pushed along 2 out, edged right, driven and kept on well from last
Showed he handled gd/sf when getting the better of Stamp Your Feet (+5) on hcap debut over 24f here on New Year’s Day; is now 3/3 over hurdles and has only been raised 4lbs for latest success, but steps up in both trip and class today, as well as tackling sf ground for the first time, as last time was encountering softer than gd for the first time; may well take it all in his strife, however, but there can’t be a lot between him and Stamp Your Feet.
Plus: distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (34 days);
Minus: class (?); going (?); up 4lbs; up in class;
Verdict: (39) pointer/bumper winner in Ireland and unbeaten over hurdles in UK, has to be a contender.
Connetable 6-11-5 (135)
26 Dec Cl 3 Hcap Hdl (125 d) 21f sf Kemp (141) 12/1 10.75l 4/14 off 135
Made most but pressed, headed 3 out, lost 2nd before 2 out, no danger after but kept on
09 Dec Cl 2 Hcap Hdl (125 d) 23.5f gd/sf Sand (147) 4/1 0.25l 2/8 off 130
Led at good pace, joined 2 out, narrowly headed last, urged along and kept on well but just held
Has not set the world on fire to date, but decent efforts the last twice going down to Holly Bush Henry at Sandown and Golan Fortune at Kempton, both of which were runners-up at Sandown yesterday; looks like he may be suited by the step back up in trip, and stable won last year’s renewal.
Plus: class (W+); going (W); distance (F); trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent outing (40 days); recent form run (57 days);
Minus: course (?); up in class;
Verdict: (38) step back up in trip could well suit and another possible contender.

Of the others, one could make some sort of case for last year’s runner-up Arthurs Secret who likely needed the race when 6th to Cresswell Legend here on New Year’s Day and runs off the same mark as last year at a course where he usually goes well. However, as he’s only 1/14 over hurdles it’s hard to see him actually winning. So while he may make the frame, I think the winner will come from the quartet in my shortlist – the problem is, which one! After yesterday’s Sandown result, I have to think seriously about Connetable’s chances, but he’s the sort who likes to do it from the front, which is tough over 26f, especially as Jump For Dough has the same mindset. So with those taking each other on up front, I think that leaves it open for Creswell Legend and Stamp Your Feet to battle it out once more. Tough to call, but it’s hard to desert Creswell Legend till he’s beaten, so I’m going for Creswell Legend from Stamp Your Feet and Connetable.

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