Saturday 17th Feburuary

Any comments on today's racing. Please don't just put in selections ... please add some reason why you think a runner will win
Devasteve
Posts: 546
Joined: Fri Jan 16, 2015 8:29 am

Saturday 17th Feburuary

Postby Devasteve » Sat Feb 17, 2018 12:17 pm

Just goes to show you that sometimes even I can get a hurdles race right. Wonder if the good luck will continue today!

Ascot 15.00 Cl 2 Hcap Hurdle 282 (149) 19.5f sf – 9 Runners

Last year – 282 (142) sf – 16 ran
Air Horse One 7/1 6-11-2 (132) by 1.5l from Divine Spear 15/2 6-10-6 (127)

Kildisart 6-10-12 (135)
28 Dec Cl 3 Hcap Hdl (125 u) 21f sf Kemp (141) 3/1 F 3.75l 2/14 off 128
tracked leaders, progress to chase winner before 2 out and soon clear of rest, stayed on but never able to challenge
Won over C&D here on second start over hurdles and then beaten only by Golan Fortune on HHd debut at Kempton; not seen since and has been raised 7lbs for that, but form looks strong as winner has since completed his hat-trick by taking a Gr 3 HHd at Sandown; likely more to come.
Plus: going (F); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto; career best lto;
Minus: class (?); 53-day break; up 7lbs; up in class;
Verdict: (49) showed promise in all 3 Hd starts to date and a contender despite rise in the weights.
Dieg Man 5-10-7 (130)
01 Jan Cl 4 Nov Hdl (48 u) 19.5f sf Catt (130) 2/5 F 3l 1/7 off 130
In touch, not fluent 3 out, headway to lead on bit 2 out, pushed out run-in
Winner of HHd in France in June, has won his 2 NHd events with ease since moving to UK shores, the latest at Catterick on New Year’s Day; fair enough mark for UK HHd debut.
Plus: going (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (47 days); career best lto;
Minus: class (?); course (?); up 2 classes; UK HHd debut;
Verdict: (48) done everything asked to date and likely more to come, a contender.
Fixe Le Kap 6-11-6 (143)
First start since undergoing a wind operation after failing to land the odds on his chase debut in December, so difficult to know what to expect; previously showed much promise over hurdles, finishing runner-up in the Imperial Cup after 12-month break and then landing a listed hurdle in France on his only other 2017 starts.
Plus: class (W+); going (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C);
Minus: course (?); 61-day break; up 5lbs;
Verdict: (46) can obviously go well fresh and a contender if op has done the trick.
Friday Night Light 5-10-0 (123)
04 Feb Cl 3 Hcap Hdl (81 u) 16.5 sf Taunt (135) 5/2 Jt F 2l 2/7 off 121
Tracked leader, upsides from 5th, ridden to edge ahead approaching last (usual 2 out), headed entering final furlong, no extra
Winning flat form in France and got off the mark at the third attempt over hurdles when winning a Cl 4 HHd at Newbury in mid-January; raised 10lbs for that and could only finish runner-up when upped to Cl 3 at the start of the month; not sure rise in trip is what’s needed, especially as he’s up another 2lbs.
Plus: going (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (13 days); career best lto;
Minus: class (?); distance (?); course (?); up 2lbs; up in class;
Verdict: (40) looks like a lot more needed on what he’s shown to date and not teh strongest contender.
Le Patriote 6-10-4 (127)
Twice a winner over 18f in France, but his 2 UK starts to date suggest that more is needed this side of the Channel and cheek-pieces fitted today.
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); form run lto (21 days);
Minus: course (?); up in trip;
Verdict: (36) still to find his way here and not the strongest contender.

With only one real outsider in the past 10 renewals, most of these can’t be given much of a chance and I’ve even got questions about Friday Night Light and Le Patriote this side of the Channel. I think Fixe Le Kap will prove the better of Henderson’s duo, but the obvious dangers are the unexposed pair of Kilisart and Dieg Man who promise much at this early stage of their careers. Hard to know in which order to place them but following my figures I’ll go for Kilisart from Dieg Man and Fixe Le Kap

Haydock 15.15 Gr 3 Hcap Chase 570 (161) 28.5f hv – 9 Runners (8 at best)

Last year – 427 (152) gd/sf 13 ran
Vieux Lion Rouge 8/1 8-11-6 (146) by 3.75l from Blacklion 7/2 F 8-11-12 (152)

Blacklion 9-11-12 (161)
09 Dec Gr 3 Hcap Chase (814 u) 26f hv Aint (159) 7/4 F 9l 1/15 off 153
Held up, headway, 11th, went 3rd 16th going well, ranged alongside leader 2 out, led approaching last, soon pushed clear, ridden elbow, stayed on strongly
Runs off a 9lbs higher mark than when runner-up in last year’s renewal, but continues to improve having finished 4/40 in the National and followed up runner-up in the Charlie Hall on his return by putting up a career best in taking the Becher in fine style at Aintree in December; raised 8lbs for that and has not run since, so will probably need the run to put him right for another tilt at the main event in April.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (F); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto; career best lto;
Minus: up 8lbs; 70-day break;
Verdict: (58) course, distance and going all suit and while he may not be at peak best giving weight to the field after his break, a definite contender.
The Dutchman 8-10-13 (148)
20 Jan Gr 2 Hcap Chase (429 u) 25.5f hv Hayd (153) 13/2 13l 1/13 off 135
Led until after 1st, led again 4th, headed after 9th, remained prominent, led after 14th, mistake 2 out, drew clear run-in, kept on
Moved to his current yard in November and after a pair of hurdles outings put in a career best to trounce the field in the Peter Marsh here last month; raised 13lbs for that, which sees him 11lbs worse off with Yala Enki who had been 16l back in 4th; however, is only making his 8th chase start today so likely more to come as a stayer.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (F); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (28 days); career best lto;
Minus: up 13lbs;
Verdict: (58) young improving chaser and can’t be ignored despite the rise in the weight, a contender.
Wild West Wind 9-10-9 (144)
06 Jan Gr 3 Hcap Chase (854 u) 29.5f hv Chep (151) 10/1 F/20 off 142
Made most to 7th, led again 10th until fell 12th
09 Dec Cl 2 Hcap Chase (127 u) 23.5f hv Chep (148) 6/1 1.75l 1/10 off 138
Tracked leader until led 9th, left clear 4 out, 8 lengths up when hit next, soon driven, reduced lead between last 2, ridden out flat
Had too much for subsequent Welsh National runner-up Alfie Spinner (-3) when recording a career best in the trial at Chepstow in December, and was going well in the main event until coming a purler at the 12th; runs off 2lbs higher today, but is 3/5 over fences and with conditions can put in another telling effort if showing no effects for his fall.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent outing (42 days);
Minus: course (?); up 2lbs; 70 days since form run (career best);
Verdict: (46) promising staying chaser and a contender if over Chepstow fall.
Mysteree 10-10-3 (138)
06 Jan Gr 3 Hcap Chase (854 u) 29.5f hv Chep (151) 12/1 PU/20 off 138
Held up, pushed along 6th, soon pushed along in rear, behind from 10th, pulled up after 12th
18 Mar List Hcap Chase (703 u) 33.5f sf Uttox (144) 8/1 1.5l 2/20 off 133
Held up, headway after 20th, led 3 out, soon ridden, headed near finish
Loves a stamina test in gruelling conditions and enjoyed a productive season after moving to this yard in October 2016; won over C&D on hv on stable debut before going on to take the Eider and finish runner-up in the Midland National; possibly needed the race when disappointing in the Welsh National on his return, but not impossible that he may bounce back from that.
Plus: going (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent outing (42 days);
Minus: class; 336 days since last form run;
Verdict: (44) likely to be fitter than at Chepstow and a possible contender.
Three Faces West 10-10-9 (144)
23 Dec Cl 2 Hcap Chase (160 d) 23f hv Hayd (144) 100/30 F/9 off 144
Led until fell 12th
18 Nov Gr 3 Hcap Chase (285 u) 27.5f sf Chelt (166) 5/1 17.25l 3/8 off 147
Led, hit 3 out and headed, soon ridden and held, lost 2nd turning in, stayed on same pace from next until faded final 100yds
Was in good form early last season winning 2 of 3, including in hv ground here; however, not seen after winning at Newbury in mid-December and thus there was much to like in his effort when finishing 3rd at Cheltenham in November; was then bowling along in front until coming down at the 12th in the Tommy Whittle in December; has been given time to get over that, but has something to prove today going up in class.
Plus: going (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (C);
Minus: class; 56-day break; 431 days since form run; up in class;
Verdict: chances on earlier form, but a contender with questions today.

While older horses have won in recent years, 7yo to 9yo have done best, as have horses that won or were placed lto. Weights don’t tell us an awful lot, but it still tends to be a race for horses that have only won 1-3 handicap chases and no more than 4 chase wins overall. Yala Enki has yet to find form this term and while Silsol finished 5th in the Welsh National, I don’t think that even Nicholls is sure about his capabilities as a staying chaser. Joining that pair on the discard pile are Mysteree and Three Faces West perhaps as the weakest of the contenders on my shortlist. The credentials of Blacklion look impeccable, but this isn’t the main event and having been off since early December he may just need this race to put him right for Aintree in April, plus the fact he’s conceding 13lbs or more to the rest of the field. The Dutchman has a hefty hike in the weights to contender with but is still relatively inexperienced over fences and obviously improving fast. Much the same could be said for Wild West Wind, although he has a fall to get over. Nevertheless, I feel it’s between this trio and while I’m convinced that Blacklion will make the frame, for the win I’m tempted to go for The Dutchman. So for me it’s The Dutchman from Blacklion and Wild West Wind.

Haydock 15.50 Cl 2 Hcap Hurdle 130 (146) 23f hv – 11 Runners

Last year – 120 (136) gd/sf 10 ran
Dadsintrouble 6/1 7-11-12 (129) by 2l from Big River 13/2 7-11-4 (128)
Theo’s Charm 7/1 7-11-10 (134) was 2.1l 3rd

Black Ivory 6-10-12 (132)
13 Jan Cl 2 Hcap Hdl (131 d) 25f sf Warw (142) 5/1 1.25l 1/12 off 126
Tracked leaders, went 2nd after 3 out, ridden to lead flat, stayed on
Has continued to improve this term winning last 2 starts in Cl 2 over 20f and 25f at Aintree and Warwick, the latter with a career best performance; has been raised 6lbs for latest success, which does not seem excessive.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); form run lto (35 days); career best lto;
Minus: course (?); up 6lbs;
Verdict: (52) going the right way and no reason he shouldn’t be thereabouts again, a contender.
Noble Robin 7-10-10 (130)
13 Jan Cl 4 Nov Hdl (45 u) 19.5f sf Weth (128) 5/2 7l 1/9 off 128
With leader, led 3rd, made rest, jumped left last, driven clear run-in, eased close home
Has won his last 2 novice starts and now goes handicapping off a 2lbs higher mark; much more expected with such high-powered connections, but yard still struggling for winners.
Plus: going (W); trainer (C); form run lto (35 days); career best lto;
Minus: class (?); distance (?); course (?); trainer 14 0/15); up 2lbs; up 2 classes;
Verdict: (40) lightly-raced sort but is 2/3 over hurdles and can make his mark handicapping, a contender with reservations about trainer form.
Shantou Bob 10-11-12 (146)
Way down the field in a Grade B at Leopardstown at the start of the month, but had previously recorded a career best when runner-up to Flemcara at Chepstow at the beginning of January; however, has been raised 1lb for that and is now off a 9lbs higher mark than for his last win at Chepstow in December 2016; fitted with first-time blinkers today.
Plus: class (W); going (F); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent outing (13 days); recent form run (42 days); down in class;
Minus: course; up 1lb;
Verdict: (41) looks to be getting inconsistent with age and not the strongest contender off this mark.
Theo’s Charm 8-11-3 (137)
21 Jan Cl 3 Hcap Hurdle (61 d) 21.5f hv Font (137) 2/1 4.5l 2/5 off 137
Tracked winner, shaken up to challenge 2 out, ridden and every chance last, kept on same pace
It’s over 2 years and 13 starts since his last win, although one can’t accuse him of not trying as lto he met a useful chaser returning from a wind op and still managed to finish as runner-up in a career best over hurdles when returned to the smaller obstacles for the first time this season; only 3lbs higher than when 3rd in last year’s renewal and a chance of being thereabouts if building on Fontwell effort.
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (F); course (F); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (27 days); career best lto;
Minus:
Verdict: (39) hard to see as a winner, but a contender for the frame perhaps.
Tommy Rapper 7-11-1 (135)
08 Feb Cl 4 Nov Hdl (42 u) 21f sf Towc (130) 5/6 F 20l 1/6 off 130
Held up, headway 8th, went 2nd after 3 out, led on bit approaching last, soon clear, pushed out
Got off the mark over hurdles at the seventh attempt when winning at Doncaster in January and followed up at Towcester this month; could run up a sequence now he’s got the hang of it, especially handicapping over a new trip; however, more questions than answers at present.
Plus: form run lto (9 days); career best lto;
Minus: class (?); going (?); distance; course (?); up 5lbs; up 2 classes;
Verdict: (30) not proven in many categories, but could make his mark in handicap company; still, not the strongest contender for me.

Bit rushed on this one, and it would not surprise me if one of the unconsidered ones popped up. However, from the form on show to date I’ve got to row in with the majority in thinking that Black Ivory is the one they all have to beat. Which one will finish closest if hard to pick, but I’m inclined to go with the young improvers. So I’d go for Black Ivory from Noble Robin and Tommy Rapper and just hope that something like Splash Of Ginge doesn’t wreck the best laid plans of mice and men!

justraymondo
Posts: 211
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2016 10:57 am

Re: Saturday 17th Feburuary

Postby justraymondo » Sun Feb 18, 2018 3:14 pm

Wow some write up there.


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