September 24th February

Any comments on today's racing. Please don't just put in selections ... please add some reason why you think a runner will win
Devasteve
Posts: 546
Joined: Fri Jan 16, 2015 8:29 am

September 24th February

Postby Devasteve » Sat Feb 24, 2018 12:18 pm

We shall draw a line under last week’s dismal efforts and cross fingers that we do a little better this time round, and for those that might ask, yes I do remember backing Highland Wedding in the Eider!

Newcastle 14.45 Cl 2 Hcap Chase 500 (149) 32.5f hv – 17 Run

Last year – 500 (139) sf 18 Ran
Mysteree 10/1 9-11-0 (127) bt 4l from Knockanrawley 8/1 9-11-6 (133)
Smooth Stepper 14/1 8-11-7 (134) 22l 6th
Portrait King 16/1 12-10-10 (130) was BD at 1st
Milansbar 20/1 10-11-11 (138) was PU 6 out
Milborough 14/1 11-11-3 (133) was PU before 4 out

Vinnie Lewis 7-10-13 (136)
07 Jan Cl 3 Hcap Chase (181 u) 28.5f hv Plump (136) 7/2 F 6l 1/11 off 127
Chased leaders until led and mistake 17th, clear next, ridden and stayed on strongly from before 2 out, comfortably
Fast improving young staying chaser who is now 2/4 over fences after recording a career best when taking the Sussex National in demanding ground at Plumpton last month; has been raised 9lbs for that, but likely more to come; little younger than the normal winner, although Portrait King was a 7yo when taking the 2012 renewal and Milborough carried 10-13 when winning in 2015 as a 9yo.
Plus: going (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); form run lto (48 days); career best lto;
Minus: class (?); course (?); up 9lbs; up in class; trainer (C?);
Verdict: (49) in-form young chaser and has to be considered a contender despite only four starts over fences.
Hainan 7-11-3 (140)
20 Jan Gr 2 Hcap Chase (429 u) 25.5f hv Hayd (153) 6/1 13.75l 3/13 off 140
Prominent, jumped slowly 13th and lost place, outpaced after 14th, 6th hard at work and no impression before 2 out, rallied and stayed on under pressure after last, closed near finish, no chance with winner
Second season chaser who was runner-up in a NHCh here last season and has continued to progress since then, winning over 28.5f at Haydock in November in a career best and then finishing 3rd to runaway winner The Dutchman in the Peter Marsh there last month; the 4th placed Yala Enki went on the Grand National Trial at Haydock last weekend; little young as a 7yo, but second year chasers do well.
Plus: class (F?); going (W); distance (W); course (F); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto? (35 days); down in class;
Minus: trainer’s race record (0/0/13);
Verdict: (48) promising young staying chaser, but with trainer’s race record a contender with questions
West Of The Edge 10-10-5 (128)
30 Dec Cl 2 Hcap Chase (138 u) 27.5f hv Hayd (132) 8/1 3.5l 2/9 off 128
Tracked leaders, chased winner and close up after 18th, no further impression and one pace inside final 100yds
More exposed than ideal, but form took a definite upturn after joining current yard at the start of last season during which he won 3 times; had a couple of hurdle starts to put him right this term and then recorded a career best in finishing runner-up to the well-handicapped Emperor’s Choice at Haydock at the end of December; runs off the same mark today and further improvement possible, as he’s 3/5 over fences for current yard and runner-up in the other 2 starts.
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (56 days); career best lto;
Minus: course (?);
Verdict: more exposed and lower weighted than average winner, but could well be targeted at this and a contender.
Milansbar 11-11-6 (143)
13 Jan Gr 3 Hcap Chase (427 d) 29f sf Warw (139) 12/1 11l 1/13 off 134
Led until after 2nd, chased leader, led again 5th to next, led 9th, clear approaching 2 out, pushed out
First-time blinkers did the trick at Warwick lto, although to be fair he had had shown promise in his 2 previous starts this term, a promising 3rd in the Welsh National Trial at Chepstow before being hampered when UR in the main event itself; however, the margin of his career-best Warwick victory has seen him rise 9lbs in the weights, which is 5lbs more than when PU in last year’s renewal.
Plus: class (W); going (F); distance (W); form run lto (42 days); career best lto; down in class;
Minus: course; up 9lbs;
Verdict: (42) impressive in blinkers at Warwick, but this a far tougher test, especially off his new mark and not the strongest contender.
Chase The Spud 10-11-12 (149)
06 Jan Gr 3 Hcap Chase (854 u) 29.5f hv Chep (151) 11/1 PU/20 off 148
With leaders, led 7th to 10th, left in lead 12th, headed next, weakened and pulled up before 4 out
25 Nov Cl 2 Hcap Chase (317 d) 25.5f hv Hayd (144) 6/1 6l 1/8 off 139
Led, headed 2nd, remained prominent, regained lead 12th, pressed 3 out, drew clear approaching last, stayed on well
Beat last year’s winner Mysteree when taking the Midlands National last March, and followed on by recording another career best when winning on his return at Haydock in November; was running alright until suddenly weakening and being PU in Welsh National, as he had been 2 years previously; no surprise were he to put up a better showing today, but he is 19lbs higher than when taking the Midland’s National and 10lbs higher than at Haydock, so it’ll be no easy task.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); trainer (24d); trainer (C); recent outing (49 days); down in class;
Minus: course (?); up 1lb;
Verdict: (32) conditions suit, but a big ask off top weight and perhaps not the strongest contender.

A race that is usually won by older horses (9-11yo) carrying 10-8 or more. In fact, only Scotten Green (10-02 in 2000) and Rocking Blues (9-12 in 2016) have carried less this millennium; both incidentally ridden by a jockey with the same forename, Lorcan Wyer in 2000 and Lorcan Murtagh in 2016. I’ve checked and there’s no Lorcans lurking this year! Another thing I checked, in the 46 renewals to date no 6yo has ever won. That doesn’t speak highly of the chances of Back To The Thatch, especially as his only chase success in 4 starts came in a Cl 4 HCh over 23.5f. Other things I’m prepared to take with a pinch of salt is not having previously run in the race, as last year’s winner Mysteree had, and for those with longer memories, Highland Wedding won three consecutive renewals spread over four years back in the ‘60s.

Much as like the top weight Chase The Spud, I have to think the task is a little too tough today and regretfully remove him from the shortlist. I also think Milansbar might have too tough a task off his new mark, as it wasn’t the greatest competition he beat at Warwick and I can’t see him having improved more than 5lbs since last year. It’s hard to argue that Vinnie Lewis wasn’t impressive when taking the Sussex National lto, but he is 7yo. Just seven 7yo winners in 46 renewals suggests it’s not easy for the younger horses and on this occasion with only 4 starts over fences I fear the price does not reflect his chances. Hainan is also a 7yo, but a second-year chaser with twice as many starts over fences. My main bugbear here is Sue Smith’s record in the race, as she’s never won it and in the past 11 renewals her 13 entries have failed to even make the frame. So that leaves me with West Of The Edge, who is more exposed than any of the last 11 winners and is also a little light in the weights. However, looking at his record since joining his current yard I’ve got to think he must have a chanced off this mark. So for me it’s West Of The Edge from Hainan with Chase The Spud a lively outsider.

Kempton 15.35 Gr 3 Hcap Chase 570 (152) 24f gd/sf – 15 Run

Last year – 570 (154) gd 13 ran
Pilgrims Bay 25/1 7-10-2 (130) by 0.5l from Double Shuffle 11/2 7-11-7 (149)
Theatre Guide 11/1 10-11-11 (153) was 3l 3rd
Ballykan 11/1 7-10-12 (140) was 5.75l 5th

Acting Lass 7-11-9 (149)
20 Jan Cl 2 Hcap Chase (476 u) 21f sf Ascot (143) 7/4 F 2.25l 1/6 off 143
Jumped left to 7th, held up in last, progress 8th and jumped much better after, led 11th, stretched on from next, 6 lengths ahead when pecked 3 out, idled and shaken up after 2 out, driven and readily asserted flat
Just the 3 chase starts, all small field, but he has won them all and was especially impressive last time when raised to a Cl 2 HCh and responded with yet another career best; has been raised 6lbs for that, which seems fair enough, but now he steps up in trip from 21f.
Plus: going (W); trainer (C); form run lto (35 days); career best lto;
Minus: class (?); distance (?); course (?); up 6lbs; up in class; up in trip;
Verdict: (44) done everything asked of him so far, but this tougher ask and rise in trip; nevertheless, a contender if staying the trip.
Go Conquer 9-11-11 (151)
23 Dec List Hcap Chase (570 s) 24f gd/sf Ascot (156) 11/1 UR/14 off 151
Won battle for lead and set strong pace, jumped well until mistake and nearly fell 14th, lost all chance and well beaten in 9th when blundered badly and unseated rider
04 Nov Gr 3 Hcap Chase (570 s) 24f gd Ascot (150) 7/1 4.5l 1/16 off 142
Jumped well, led to 6th and from 9th, clear after 3 out, pushed along and in no danger after, eased final 50yds
Much improved form in winning first 2 starts this term, including the Sodexo Gold Cup at Ascot in December in a career best, but jumping errors put paid to his chances over the same C&D in December and he was PU; not seen since and will need another career best off this mark to make his presence felt today.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (F); trainer (C);
Minus: 63-day break; 112 days since form run;
Verdict: (40) further improvement and needs to get over fall, plus suspect he prefers better ground, so a contender with questions.
Art Mauresque 8-11-10 (150)
13 Jan List Chase (228 d) 20.5f gd/sf Kemp (163) 16/1 8l 2/6 off 150
Jumped well but left at times, with leader and often out jumped him, ridden to lead 3 out, headed after next, unable to match pace of winner and held when jumped left last, kept on same pace for clear 2nd
Not won since October 2016, although just the 6 starts since; best effort since when runner-up in a listed chase over 20.5f here last month, although never matching pace of the winner; trip a question as he fell at the first in the Sodexo Gold Cup in November on his only try at the distance and has never won beyond 21f.
Plus: class (F); going (F); course (F); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (42 days);
Minus: distance (?); up in distance;
Verdict: (34) needs the better ground, but the trip an unknown, so a contender with questions.
Tintern Theatre 7-10-12 (138)
20 Jan Gr 2 Hcap Chase (429 u) 25.5f hv Hayd (153) 13/2 UR/13 off 138
Held up, headway into midfield 8th, tracked leaders going well 13th, mistake 3 out, soon ridden, weakened 2 out, blundered and unseated rider last
27 Dec Cl 2 Hcap Chase (150 u) 24f sf Kemp (142) 7/2 2.75l 1/7 off 134
Kept wider than rivals, chased leading pair until went 2nd 14th, shaken up to lead 2 out, stayed on well, readily
Not always the most fluent of jumpers (has failed to complete half his chase starts), but does have talent as he showed when putting in a career best effort on his penultimate start over C&D here; is only 4lbs higher now, so not an insurmountable task, especially with Sam back in the saddle.
Plus: going (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent outing (35);
Minus: class; up in class;
Verdict: (33) better ground and drop in trip should help and a contender
Master Dee 9-11-5 (145)
11 Nov Cl 2 Hcap Chase (464 u) 20f sf Aint (150) 8/1 3l 2/12 off 145
Chased leaders, headway into close 2nd 4 out, led approaching 3 out, narrow lead 2 out, 3 lengths clear when ridden approaching last where advantage diminished, ridden and headed halfway up run-in, no extra close home
Consistent enough in never being out of the top 3 in his 11 chase starts, maintaining that record when runner-up in a valuable HCh at Aintree in November; not seen since and this will be his first February start since moving to this yard 2 years ago; interesting jockey booking, but after having been off for so long I just wonder if this might be a primer for Cheltenham perhaps.
Plus: going (F); distance (F); trainer (14d); form run lto;
Minus: class (?); course (?); up in class; up in trip; 105-day break;
Verdict: (31) consistent sort, but stepping up a grade on his return from a 3-month break and not the strongest contender perhaps.

What we used to call the Racing Post chase in days of yore and it comes with some pretty useful stats in that we’re looking for higher weighted 7yo to 9yo chasers with 2 to 4 starts since August and no more than 11 HCh starts but with wins in Cl 2, over 21f+ and RH. I can make a case for each on my shortlist, although the 3-month break does worry me in regard to Master Dee. Inexperience is what worries me about Acting Miss, together with step up in trip, and with those queries the price looks rather cramped. While I think Art Mauresque will prove the better of the Nicholls pair, again there’s the question about the trip – not to mention time between drinks. So that rather leaves me between Tintern Theatre and Go Conquer, and you know the problems I have reading Jonjo right – actually prefer where he’s not represented! Thus I’m going to row along with Sam and go for Tintern Theatre from Go Conquer and hope Acting Lass and Master Dee don’t make me look stupid.

justraymondo
Posts: 211
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2016 10:57 am

Re: September 24th February

Postby justraymondo » Sun Feb 25, 2018 12:16 pm

Master Dee


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