bet by numbers - coral cup

Any comments on today's racing. Please don't just put in selections ... please add some reason why you think a runner will win
LoveWinners
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bet by numbers - coral cup

Postby LoveWinners » Thu Mar 01, 2018 6:05 pm

looking to add some content for the forum in a small series identifying some data that maybe of interest for members. This isn't something i would use blindly but maybe others may find it of interest to either use fully or as a helpful tool?

The coral cup is always a competitive handicap and of course that comes with many dangers. I find it interesting when looking at the baseline indicator of the market position in quarters , i chose 7 as the marker per quarter although its slightly more than 7 on average field size since 1997 but due to jts in many positions we should feel fine with that figure overall . i would by instinct feel this race should have a varied spread of winners/MP. My instinct seems to be off as shown below

Bets Wins Win% P/L(SP) Places Place% Races Race% ROI(SP) P/L(BF) ROI(BF) Lay(BF) ROI(L) Plc(BF) Plc%(BF) P/L(Plc) Lay(Plc) MxOdd A/E
156 14 8.97 18.5 45 28.85 20 70 11.86 64.05 79.07 -74.81 -6.57 23 28.4 12.71 -19.33 17.00 0.94

we can see from the above that taking the top quarter is would have provided 14 of the 20 (70%) winners for those who fall in 7th position and below with 156 runners we can tell we are not dealing with just seven runners per year and can only use this as a band but moving forward to the important part is that its very interesting that backing all runners within the band would have been profitable and to s.p +18.5 point (11.6% ROI) but to BFSP that figure jumped to +64.05 pts with an eye opening 79.07% ROI.

A quick note taking the top 2 positions out of the fray improved Performance of
Bets Wins Win% P/L(SP) Places Place% Races Race% ROI(SP) P/L(BF) ROI(BF) Lay(BF) ROI(L) Plc(BF) Plc%(BF) P/L(Plc) Lay(Plc) MxOdd A/E
107 11 10.28 44.5 30 28.04 20 55 41.59 68.22 119.68 -76.94 -8.26 17 29.82 14.95 -19.84 17.00 1.31

so for positions 3-7 show 107 bets finding 11 of the winners (55%) +44.4 pts (41.59% ROI) and to bfsp 68.22 pts (119.68% ROI) i find this interesting but do prefer to have a filter that isnt so restrictive so the original set is where i would prefer to move forward with.

The downside to both the above is you would need to be betting live near to the off as the baseline figures are to isp. That being said i feel this is a live indicator worth using for further indicator research. Back tomorrow for more investigation

LoveWinners
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Re: bet by numbers - coral cup

Postby LoveWinners » Sat Mar 03, 2018 6:02 pm

Continuing our search for a field reduction in the coral cup, Whilst this will not be perfect as already filtered out previous winners i still feel the 1st filter to be worth noting and continuing the reduction.

Within the population i wanted to look at another filter one which is sount in reasoning and now i wish to look at the prep runs of our population.




Add Criteria Bets Wins Win% P/L(SP) Places Place% Races Race% ROI(SP) P/L(BF) ROI(BF) Lay(BF) ROI(L) Plc(BF) Plc%(BF) P/L(Plc) Lay(Plc) MxOdd A/E
Non-Handicap 1 0 0 -1 1 100 1 0 -100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 15.00 0
Chase 2 0 0 -2 1 50 2 0 -100 -1 -100 0.95 6.28 1 100 3.15 -3.32 13.00 0
Hurdle 32 6 18.75 49.5 13 40.63 16 37.5 154.69 55.93 349.53 -60.1 -24.54 5 31.25 5.94 -7.38 17.00 1.94
Beginners Chase 2 0 0 -2 0 0 2 0 -100 -2 -100 1.9 7.45 0 0 -2 1.9 13.00 0
Novices Chase 3 0 0 -3 1 33.33 3 0 -100 -1 -100 0.95 3.36 0 0 -1 0.95 17.00 0
Novices Hurdle 23 0 0 -23 4 17.39 14 0 -100 -14 -100 13.3 9.22 2 14.29 -6.92 6.05 17.00 0
Handicap 3 0 0 -3 1 33.33 3 0 -100 -2 -100 1.9 4.78 1 50 2.19 -2.41 17.00 0
Handicap Chase 1 0 0 -1 0 0 1 0 -100 -1 -100 0.95 5.42 0 0 -1 0.95 15.00 0
Handicap Hurdle 88 7 7.95 -5 23 26.14 20 35 -5.68 18.67 43.43 -23.66 -3.87 13 30.23 8.56 -12.09 17.00 0.85


from out previous 156 population there seems to be a viable filter to add in the shape of prep runs.

looking at the above horse that competed in non hurdle races will reduce the options but more interesting are those who ran in a novice race last time.

if we filter out the data to show those running in non novice hurdles last time we find a nice reduction to the following

Bets Wins Win% P/L(SP) Places Place% Races Race% ROI(SP) P/L(BF) ROI(BF) Lay(BF) ROI(L) Plc(BF) Plc%(BF) P/L(Plc) Lay(Plc) MxOdd A/E
120 13 10.83 44.5 36 30 20 65 37.08 74.6 126.44 -83.76 -9.78 18 30.51 14.5 -19.47 17.00 1.15

as layout looks fine while writing it seems to not line up when submitting but for ease 120 bets 13 winners from the 20 sp pl +44.5 and bfsp 126.44

I feel this is sound without being ultra liberal and i feel this is a group of runners worth noting but of course that certainly doesnt guarantee success but will aid in where i shall be placing my investment. Next i will see if its worth continuing with the reduction by profile or move on to the PF ratings evaluation and finally the wager to be struck into the market of this tough race.


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