Saturday 3rd March

Any comments on today's racing. Please don't just put in selections ... please add some reason why you think a runner will win
Devasteve
Posts: 546
Joined: Fri Jan 16, 2015 8:29 am

Saturday 3rd March

Postby Devasteve » Sat Mar 03, 2018 11:07 am

Wasn’t too disappointed with the Eider last week, as I had serious reservations about the winner staying the trip and he was seriously considered. Just the AW this week, but I suppose it’s better than nothing. Let’s hope we have some NH racing to consider next weekend!

Lingfield 13.45 Cl 3 Hcap 72 (96) 8f AW – 8 Run

Chevallier 6-9-11 (96) Dr 6
24 Feb Cl 2 Hcap (120 u) 8f AW Ling (100) 4/1 5.07l 6/9 off 96
Anticipated start and slowly into stride, behind, closed and in touch halfway, effort and shaken up over 1f out, edged left and no impression just inside final furlong, weakened final 100yds
10 Feb Cl 2 Hcap (118 u) 8f AW Ling (98) 6/1 1l 1/9 off 91
Took keen hold, tracked leaders, shaken up and closed to chase leader well over 1f out, soon upsides and held together until shaken up again to lead 1f out, ridden and asserted 100yds out, always doing enough after, eased near finish
Got cute at the start last weekend and ended up being slowly away, eventually finishing 6/9; a fortnight earlier though he had recorded a career best in taking a Cl 2 over C&D here for his second successive win, a feat he’d done at the same time last year; mat bounce back from last week now that he’s dropped in class, but he’s off a career high mark and may have already peaked for this year.
Plus: class (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent form run (21 days); down in class;
Minus:
Verdict: (46) needs to bounce back from last week’s disappointment and not the strongest contender perhaps.
Humbert 4-9-5 (90) Dr 4
03 Feb Cl 4 Hcap (65 d) 8f AW Kemp (87) 4/5 F 0.5l 1/7 off 86
Took keen hold, chased leader, pushed along in close 2nd 2f out, led over 1f out, driven out final furlong, on top near finish
Making up for lost time in coming back from a 15-month break and winning his first 3 starts on the AW, the latest a Cl 4 at Kempton at the start of last month in a career best; had previously won at this level when taking a Cl 3 at Wolverhampton in mid-January; raised 4lbs for his Lingfield debut and up in class, but likely there’s much more to come on only his sixth career start.
Plus: class (W); distance (W); trainer (C); form run lto (28 days); career best lto;
Minus: up 4lbs; up in class;
Verdict: fast improver and a definite contender if handling Lingfield.
Sea Fox 4-9-2 (87) Dr 2
24 Feb Cl 2 Hcap (120 u) 8f AW Ling (100) 8/1 0.07l 3/9 off 85
Dwelt, soon pushed along and headway to chase leaders after 1f, went 2nd over 2f out until ridden to lead over 1f out, kept on under pressure inside final furlong, headed last strides
Poor record on turf, but 1/3 on the AW and recorded a career best when only beaten close home in a Cl 2 Hcap over C&D here last weekend; raised 2lbs for that. but surely more to come dropped back in class today.
Plus: class (F); distance (F); course (F); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (7 days); down in class; career best lto; drop in class;
Minus: up 2lbs;
Verdict: another fast improver and definitely a contender.
Towerlands Park 5-9-4 (89) Dr 7
27 Jan Cl 3 Hcap (72 s) 8f AW Ling (95) 100/30 1.3l 5/12 off 89
Rousted along leaving stalls, midfield, not clear run on inner entering final 2f, closed but still not enough room until switched right inside final furlong, ran on strongly well inside final furlong, not reach leaders
Having his first start since joining the Durack yard from Michael Bell at the start of February; reasonable run on last start for Bell here in late February, finishing a close 5th to Chevallier (-1) despite getting little luck in running; meets C on 8lbs better terms today, although Harley takes the ride today rather than Moore; not won since Dec 2016, but only 5 starts in that time and would be no surprise were he to run well for his new yard.
Plus: class (F); distance (W); course (F); trainer (C); form run lto (35 days);
Minus:
Verdict: (35) looks to have recovered AW form and a possible contender for new yard.

Mr Minerals has won both his starts on the AW, but hasn’t seen a racecourse since last July and will likely need the run. Of the ones on my shortlist I fear Chevallier may have done his winning for this season as he is now running off a career high and was behind Sea Fox in last week’s race here. It’s difficult to know what Humbert could turn out to be, but Lingfield poses a new test, while I would not entirely rule out Towerlands Park being somewhere thereabouts on his first start for Durack. So, I’m going for Sea Fox from Humbert and Towerlands Park.

Lingfield 14.55 Cl 2 Hcap 120 (104) 6f AW – 8 Run

Last year – 120 (101) 6 ran
Encore D’Or 5/2 Jt F 5-9-5 (99) Dr 1 by 0.1 l from Zac Brown 7/1 6-8-7 (94) Dr 7
Dynamo Walt 16/1 6-8-5 (85) Dr 6 was 444.4l 5th

Encore D’Or 6-9-7 (104) Dr 1
24 Feb List Stks (255 d) 5f AW Ling (110) 4/1 0.05 2/8 off 102
Tracked winner on inner until 2f out, switched right and effort over 1f out, chased winner again 1f out, closed and upsides well inside final furlong, held close home
Winner of last year’s renewal off a 5lbs lower mark, but did win off 102 at Chelmsford during the summer and then won a listed stks at Doncaster in September; had a 110-day break before a couple of starts at Meydan in January and then off a month before only just going down to the higher-rated Gracious John over C&D here last weekend; Boom The Groom (-3) and Royal Birth (-3) were 1.75l and 1.8l further back in 4th and 5th, respectively; runs off a 2lbs higher mark today and meets last week’s rivals on 5lbs and 3lbs worse terms, respectively; nevertheless, C&D suits and again comes out of stall 1, as have 3 of the previous 4 winners, and with Moore again taking the ride can’t be ignored.
Plus: class (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (7 days); down in class;
Minus: up 2lbs;
Verdict: (45) last year’s winner and certainly in form, a contender again.
Boom The Groom 7-8-13 (96) Dr 5
24 Feb List Stks (255 d) 5f AW Ling (110) 7/1 1.8l 4/8 off 96
Taken down early, dwelt, soon pushed along and recovered, in touch in midfield, switched right and effort over 1f out, kept on inside final furlong, not enough pace to threaten leaders
Over 2 years since last win on the AW, although did win twice on turf during the summer of 2016, the last off from 102; nevertheless, has run quite well here this term since his return in January and was only beaten 1.5l back of Encore D’Or (+3) here last weekend; meets him on 5lbs better terms today, so strictly on the book has a chance of reversing that form.
Plus: class (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (7 days); down in class;
Minus: 16 runs since last win;
Verdict: (42) in form, but not sure he has the ability to snap his losing run today, and not the strongest contender.
George Dryden 6-8-9 (92) Dr 2
03 Feb Cl 4 Hcap (55 s) 5f AW Ling (87) 5/2 F 1.75l 1/6 off 87
Steadied back soon after start, held up in touch, switched left and effort over 1f out, headway and ridden to lead inside final furlong, in command and pushed out well inside final furlong
Hadn’t won for over 2 years, but changed stables in January and after an initial sighter has put in a couple of decent efforts under today’s claimer, being runner-up to Dynamo Walt (+3) at Chelmsford and then providing an AW career best when beating Brother Tiger (-3) by a comfortable 1.75l over C&D here at the start of last month; raised 5lbs for that, but meets BT on only 3lbs worse terms; rises 2 classes, but this only sixth start on AW and could well be more to come.
Plus: distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); form run lto (28 days); AW career best lto;
Minus: class (?); up 5lbs; up 2 classes;
Verdict: (42) relatively unexposed on AW and a possible contender now he’s got a win under his belt.
Atletico 6-9-3 (100) Dr 7
26 Feb Cl 2 Hcap (118 d) 5f AW Wolv (100) 6/4 F 0.1l 2/6 off 100
Slowly into stride, held up, shaken up over 1f out, ridden and ran on well inside final furlong, just failed
Won 2 of his 5 AW starts, the latest a Cl 3 at Newcastle in November, since which he’s finished runner-up on his 3 starts, although some excuses for the last 2 at Wolverhampton , being hampered, and then being slowly away there on Monday; Atzeni replaces Mitchell today for his Lingfield debut.
Plus: class (F); distance (W); trainer (C); form run lto (5 days);
Minus: course (?);
Verdict: (39) unfortunate the last twice, but Lingfield a new test; nevertheless, a contender.
Royal Birth 7-9-1 (98) Dr 4
24 Feb List Stks (255 d) 4f AW Ling (110) 6/1 1.85l 5/8 off 99
Held up in touch in midfield, effort and hung right bend well over 1f out, kept on under pressure inside final furlong, not enough pace to threaten leaders
Only a year, though 13 starts since his last win, but this time he could only finish 5th last weekend in the listed race he’d won the previous year, and behind Encore D’Or and Boom The Groom; hard to see him reversing that running on today’s terms.
Plus: class (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (C); form run lto (7 days); down in class; down 1lb;
Minus: 13 starts since last win;
Verdict: (37) not beaten far last week, but an unlikely contender for the win here.

These would seem to be the most likely contenders, but even then I have my doubts about Royal Birth and also think it unlikely that Boom The Groom will snap his losing run. Of the remaining trio, Atletico has a lot of plus marks, but is making his Lingfield debut, so that’s a question, while George Dryden has to prove he can win at this level. The one with the least questions is last year’s winner Encore D’Or, for after all he’s been here and done it, and was only just denied in listed class here last week. True he’s off 5lbs higher than last year, but one could certainly argue he’s improved since then. So I’m going for Encore D’Or for the encore with perhaps George Dryden to edge out Atletico for the runner-up spot.

martinkil
Posts: 3417
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Re: Saturday 3rd March

Postby martinkil » Sun Mar 04, 2018 8:43 am

Almost had the first 3 in the correct order in the 2.55


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