Saturday 10th March

Any comments on today's racing. Please don't just put in selections ... please add some reason why you think a runner will win
Devasteve
Posts: 546
Joined: Fri Jan 16, 2015 8:29 am

Saturday 10th March

Postby Devasteve » Sat Mar 10, 2018 11:57 am

Yes, managed to do better than I expected last week. Wonder how I'll do today with the pre-Cheltenham fare! Sadly, I doubt I'll have time for any of Cheltenham this year, although I hope to start on Tuesday's chase tomorrow. Just the two today, as things didn't work out right time-wise this week

Sandown 14.25 Gr 3 Hcap Hurdle 422 (152) 16f sf – 17 Run

Last year – 394 (138) sf 13 ran
London Prize 10/1 6-11-2 (128) by ll from Fixe Le Kap 5/1 F 5-11-12 (138)
Gassin Golf 8/1 8-11-0 (133) was 26.5l 10th and last of finishers

Call Me Lord 5-11-12 (152)
17 Feb Gr 2 Hdl (343 u) 15.5f sf Winc (156) 13/8 4.5l 3/6 off 152
Tracked leader in chasing group, went 20 lengths 2nd at the 3rd, close on leader 3 out, led briefly before 2 out, ridden between last 2, kept on same pace
06 Jan Cl 2 Hcap Hdl (156 s) 16f hv San (143) 5/2 F 3.25l 1/10 off 143
Tracked leading quartet, smooth progress to challenge 2 out, narrow lead last, shaken up briefly and quickly on top, quite impressive
French import who has had just the 4 starts since joining the Henderson yard last spring, winning both his starts over C&D here, the latest in early January when recording a career best; subsequently not disgraced when 3rd to Elgin in the Kingwell Hurdle at Wincanton last month; interestingly, those wins came after 54 and 53-day breaks, which might hint that he goes best with a decent spell between runs; moreover, carries 10lbs more than the highest-weighted winner in the last 11 years, and that was last year.
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (21 days); down in class;
Minus:
Verdict: (50) C&D suit and right age group, but weight worries make him a contender with a query.
Whatswrongwithyou 7-10-13 (139)
10 Feb Cl 3 Nov Hdl (68 u) 16.5f sf Newb (133) Ev F 9l 1/9 off 133
In touch, went 3rd after 5th, led 2 out, soon clear, very easily
Winning pointer in Ireland, won a bumper last spring and has having finished runner-up on his hurdle debut over C&D here in December has won his last 2 novice starts at Newbury, the latest early last month, improving each time; makes hcap debut today and may have got in with a decent weight with his classy stable companion compressing the weights.
Plus: going (W); distance (W); course (F); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (28 days); career best lto;
Minus: class (?); up 6lbs; up 2 classes;
Verdict: (47) unexposed novice who has shown much promise and a contender.
Master Of Irony 6-10-7 (133)
02 Dec Listed Hcap Hdl (285 u) 16.5f gd/sf Newb (145) 14/1 2.25l 4/7 off 133
Held up, outpaced 3 out, still last 100yds out, finished strongly
Won 2 starts as a novice last season and back to winning ways in first-time cheekpieces at Wetherby in October; not seen then until recording a career best when a close 4/7 in the Gerry Feilden at Newbury in December; runs off the same mark today and seems to run well fresh.
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto; career best lto;
Minus: course (?); 98-day break;
Verdict: (42) improving sort who can go well fresh, so a possible contender
Le Patriote 6-10-9 (135)
17 Feb Cl 2 Hcap Hdl (282 u) 19.5f sf Asc 4/1 1l 1/9 off 127
Tracked leading pair, led 2 out and still going easily, pressed and ridden last, carried head awkwardly and hung left flat, always finding just enough
French import at the turn of the year and after a couple of sighters showed he appreciated the first-time cheekpieces in turning a career best to beat Friday Night Light (-4) by 1l at Ascot last month; has been raised 8lbs, but could well have more to give now that he’s found the winner’s enclosure; however, dropped back to this trip for the first time.
Plus: going (W); trainer (14d); form run lto (21 days); career best lto;
Minus: class (?); distance (?); course (?); up 8lbs; up in class;
Verdict: (39) unexposed sort and a possible contender if handling the drop in trip.
Friday Night Light 5-10-2 (128)
17 Feb Cl 2 Hcap Hdl (282 u) 19.5f sf Asc 12/1 1l 2/9 off 123
Looked well, held up in touch, progress on inner after 3 out, challenged 2 out, chased winner after, still chance last, stayed on but always held
Flat winner in France, but has shown promise since being put to hurdles in the autumn, winning over 16.5f at Newbury in mid-January; finished runner-up in first-time cheekpieces at Taunton in a career-best and equalled that when occupying the same position to Le Patriote (+4) when upped to 19.5f at Ascot lto; has been raised 5lbs, but is 3lbs better off with LP and may be better suited by the drop back in trip; first-time visor replaces the cheekpieces today; plus the Pipes have won 7 of the last 21 renewals, all novice hurdlers like FNL.
Plus: going (W); distance (W); trainer (C); form run lto (21 days);
Minus: class (?); course (?); up 5lbs; up in class;
Verdict: (39) unexposed novice and given his connections, a contender.

This is a race that usually goes to a young horse (9/11 were 4 to 6yo) with an official rating between 124 and 135, with last year’s winner London Prize only the third to carry over 10-13 this century; of course, Lanzarote won with 12-04 in 1973, but is rather the exception that proves the rule. Certainly, all past 11 years winners have had official ratings in the 124 to 135 range. Nor are we looking for exposed hurdlers, as none of the past 11 winners had previously won more than twice over hurdles in the UK and Ireland. Other pointers include a 1 to 3 finish in their last start and a career best in either their last or penultimate start, plus no more than 9 career starts over hurdles.

Henderson trained the winner back in 2009 and has the two leading fancies this year in the 7yo Whatswrongwithyou and top weight Call Me Lord. The latter is a classy individual, but not only is he carrying a welter burden for this race, he’s giving 12lbs or more to the rest of the field. That’s enough for me to pass on his winning chances. My problem with Whatswrongwithyou rests with his age, although lightly-raced 7yos have won on occasions, twice this century. However, while impressive lto that was only a class 3 novice and he’s got a 6lbs higher mark off which to make his hcap debut against classier animals. Still, he scrapes into the final trio. I view Master Of Irony as a danger, but while he goes well fresh a 98-day break does rather count against him and I’m inclined to pass as the winner. Le Patriote and Friday Night Light met at Ascot three weeks ago when the former came out on top. That was over further though and given the record the Pipe yard has in this race you wouldn’t put it past him saddling another winner, especially with a visor fitted for the first time. Certainly the price of Whatswrongwithyou doesn’t interest me for a three-time starter over hurdles, especially as a 7yo. Thus I’m going with Le Patriote to confirm Ascot running with Friday Night Light and perhaps Call Me Lord can relegate his better fancied stable companion Whatswrongwithyou from the frame.

Wolverhampton 14.05 Cl 2 Hcap 311 (101) 8.5f AW – 12 Run (11 at best)

Last year – 311 (105) 13 ran
Nimr 3/1 F 4-8-13 (84) Dr 8 by 1.75l from Forceful Appeal 22/1 9-8-10 (91) Dr 6
Examiner 13/2 6-8-11 (92) Dr 5 was 2.35l 4th
Pactolus 16/1 6-8-11 (95) Dr 12 was 6.95l 13th and last of the finishers

Pactolus 7-9-8 (99) Dr 2
07 Mar Cl 2 Hcap (156 u) 10f AW Kemp (102) 11/1 0.25 2/6 off 99
Led and set slow pace, ridden over 2f out, kept on well inside final furlong until headed near finish
Has been in good enough form this winter, but over further and runs off 4lbs higher than when finishing last in last year’s renewal; hard to see the drop back in trip suits.
Plus: class (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (3);
Minus: down in trip;
Verdict: (46) hard to see how the drop in trip helps and not a strong contender today.
Mr Scaramanga 4-9-10 (101) Dr 5
24 Feb Cl 2 Hcap (120 s) 8f AW Ling (100) 14/1 0.02l 2/9 off 99
Took keen hold, held up in touch in midfield, closed to chase leaders just over 2f out, ridden and every chance inside final furlong, kept on well under pressure
Two good efforts at Lingfield since the turn of the year, but still has yet to win a hcap even though he went close with a career best lto; nevertheless, that’s another 2lbs rise in the weights as he makes his debut here.
Plus: class (W+); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (14 days); career best lto;
Minus: course (?); up 2lbs; never won hcap;
Verdict: (42) in form. But new track to contend with and still to win a hcap, so not the strongest contender today.
Big Country 5-9-9 (100) Dr 10
Not run since October, but was coming off a similar break when winning a 12f mdn at this meeting last year; went on to win over 11f at Kempton and enjoyed a successful turf campaign, winning over 10.5f at York and finishing runner-up in the John Smith’s there; midfield in the Cambridgeshire and 5th to Dark Red at York to round out the season; Wonder about the drop back to this trip, and the wide draw, but is 2/2 on the AW.
Plus: class (W); distance (F); course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto;
Minus: 147-day break;
Verdict: (40) can go well fresh and a contender if handling the drop back in trip.
Constantino 5-9-3 (94) Dr 6
03 Mar Cl 3 Hcap (72 d) 8f AW Ling (96) 7/1 0.5l 1/8 off 91
Mid-division, headway on to heels of leaders over 1f out, pushed into lead entering final furlong, soon ridden to assert, ran on well
Goes well fresh and looked the part at Lingfield last weekend; raised 3lbs for that, but more worrying is that second run back often does not match the first; nevertheless, very lightly raced for a 5yo and could be more to come this season.
Plus: class (W+); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (7 days); career best lto;
Minus: up 3lbs; up in class;
Verdict: (39) a contender if repeating last Saturday’s form.

Not an over-exciting field for a race that has diminished in quality over the years and it’s hard to find serious contenders without flaws. Looking at recent years we’re searching for 4yo to 6yo carrying 8-12 to 9-5 with an official rating of 92 to 99 who have run in the past 6 weeks. Nor in general are we looking for long-priced horses at double figure odds. Looking at my already short shortlist I think we can prune Pactolus right away. Of the remaining trio, Big Country has obvious claims, but I worry a bit about the drop in trip plus the long break and while he may prove me wrong, I’m more inclined to take a chance on Constantino and Mr Scaramanga taking the major places and relegating Big Country to third.

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