Tues - Chel - 5.30

Any comments on today's racing. Please don't just put in selections ... please add some reason why you think a runner will win
martinkil
Posts: 3418
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Tues - Chel - 5.30

Postby martinkil » Mon Mar 12, 2018 11:00 pm

Cheltenham 5:30 - Novices' Handicap Chase - 2m4f78y
An absolutely fascinating race.

Any Second Now - 8.8 – Grade 2 winning hurdler, has improved over fences. Started his chasing career over 2m4f beaten 6l by Monalee (now rated 155 -fav for the RSA) off levels. On it's next start again over 2m4f was again second beaten by Invitation Only (now rated 152 and fav for the JLT). Dropped back to 2m1f for it's next start but was seriously outclassed by an unextended Footpad ( now rated 160 and fav for the Arkle). In that race as Footpad sauntered away he was fighting out second place with the 159 rated Death Duty, and has got that runners measure when it fell at the last. LTO again chased home Footpad, but that runner had a fight on it's hands against Petit Munchoir the pair 15l clear by halfway making it a true test eventually beaten by 24 lengths by the talented winner.


Tycoon Prince - 19.0 - Was well considered by Elliot when winning it's three NHF races, but never really fulfilled that promise over hurdles, but has performed better over fences. Started it's chasing career with a 7l 2nd to Al Boum Photo (ran 2nd to Monalee in a grade 1 since). Improved to take a novice chase on it's next start beating Bunk Off Early 6l (had taken a narrow lead when falling on it's next start). LTO took on Footpad in the same race where Any Second Now finished third. Was upsides that runner at the last when clipping the top and taking an easy fall, would have contended for third if it had stayed on it's feet. This is a step up to 2m4f which is an unknown, but he is over twice the price of Any Second Now and looks to be a bit of value.

I'll be doing a win on both, and a reverse forecast


Other thoughts:

Le Rocher - Grade 1 winning hurdler as a juvenile. Had a couple of comfortable wins in it's first two chases, then beat the the useful Three Musketeers (had been btn 6l in a grade 3 Hcap chase on it's previous chase start). One length up and going well when almost falling LTO. Place possibilities at best with a tendency to make errors – acts on heavy.

De Plotting Shed – a 150 rated hurdler who ran Presenting Percy (now rated 155) to 3l on chasing debut, followed up with a 13l 5th to Mossbank, a 1l second to Saturnas, and a 3.5l second to Montalbano. His mark looks about right and I feel he'll need to improve again to win this.


Mister Whitaker – really progressive chaser. Finished third on chasing debut to the 143 rated Adrien Du Pont (eased). Won a limited Hcap chase on it's next start (top weight rated 134 5l 5th). Second to the 137 rated Hells Kitchen on next start again in a handicap, and progressed to win LTO beating Theatre Territory in pleasing style in a class 2 Hcap chase. Was my initial selection and may yet prevail with form on heavy going. My one worry was his second to the progressive Hells Kitchen (PU when fav for a 53K hcap chase on next start) may mean that he's vulnerable to a 145'ish runner who runs to it's mark.

Rather Be – impressive winner of chasing debut beating War Sound (has dropped from 138 to 130 since) by 19l. UR when bursting blood vessel on next start. Cruised to easy victory LTO against 137 runner who blundered and may not have run to his mark. It's win in a Grade 3 hurdle last April could indicate an underlying level of ability - Difficult to assess.

Msalway2016
Posts: 162
Joined: Thu Mar 24, 2016 2:38 pm

Re: Tues - Chel - 5.30

Postby Msalway2016 » Tue Mar 13, 2018 8:51 pm

Nice pick with Whittaker

martinkil
Posts: 3418
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Re: Tues - Chel - 5.30

Postby martinkil » Wed Mar 14, 2018 8:52 am

He was my initial selection - but after further detailed analysis I went for the Irish pair .......... Ah well.


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