Saturday 17th March

Any comments on today's racing. Please don't just put in selections ... please add some reason why you think a runner will win
Devasteve
Posts: 546
Joined: Fri Jan 16, 2015 8:29 am

Saturday 17th March

Postby Devasteve » Sat Mar 17, 2018 11:39 am

Well I hope you all had a good Cheltenham, as sadly this year I didn’t have the time – probably just as well things have been going of late! Still, see if we can get lucky today.

Kempton 15.15 Cl 2 Hcap Chase 250 (135) 20.5f sf – 9 Run

Last year – 250 (137) gd 7 ran
Max Ward 9/2 Co F 8-11-9 (134) by 5l from Sir Note 9/2 Co F 7-11-8 (133)

Kilcrea Vale 8-11-10 (137)
20 Jan Cl 2 Hcap Chase (476 u) 21f sf Ascot (143) 5/1 2.25l 2/6 off 137
Tracked leader from 2nd until led 10th, headed next, chased winner after, struggling to keep on terms from 12th, rallied 2 out and chance last, stayed on but no impression flat
Just a couple of novice wins to his name over fences, but certainly put in a much improved performance with a season’s best at Ascot in January; runs off the same mark today against less demanding opposition.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (56 days);
Minus: course (?);
Verdict: (45) conditions would seem to suit and a contender if building on Ascot effort.
Cobra De Mai 6-11-9 (136)
23 Feb Cl 2 Hcap Chase (188 u) 20 gd/sf Warw (144) 4/1 2.5l 1/7 off 133
Settled towards rear, mistake 9th, ridden and effort after 3 out, challenged next, led last, kept on gamely and in command after
Is now 4/7 over fences after scoring at Warwick last month on first start after a wind operation; raised 3lb for that career best effort, although this offset by rider’s claim; trainer’s poor current form dampens enthusiasm, however, plus best form has come on firmer ground.
Plus: class (W); going (F); distance (W); form run lto (22 days); career best lto;
Minus: course (?); up 3lbs;
Verdict: (44) not sure conditions suit, plus trainer’s poor form mean he’s not the strongest contender.
Bentelimar 9-11-9 (136)
24 Jan Cl 3 Nov Hcap Chase (94 u) 19f hv Catt (136) 4/6 F 3.5l 2/3 off 136
Prominent, led 2nd, headed after 7th, tracked leader, ridden before 3 out, one pace and soon held in 2nd
Never quite lived up to expectations in Ireland and better over hurdles; however, has shown placed form over fences since joining his new yard, the latest at Catterick in January when recording a career best; suspicion though that he needs to build on that before he starts winning.
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (52 days); career best lto;
Minus: course (?); up in class;
Verdict: (43) jury still out for me and not the strongest contender.
Favorito Buck’s 6-11-0 (127)
24 Feb Cl 3 Hcap Chase (84 u) 20.5f Kemp (128) 7/1 0.25l 1/8 off 124
Tracked leaders, led 11th to 4 out, ridden and 2 lengths behind leader 3 out, stayed on to lead after 2 out, driven out from last and held on
Listed hurdle winner in France, but had shown little for this stable until winning over C&D here last month; has been raised 3lbs for that, but main worry is the softer ground today.
Plus: distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (21 days); career best lto;
Minus: class (?); going; up 3lbs; up in class;
Verdict: (40) shown C&D suits, but going and consistency question marks; nevertheless, a contender.
Brandon Hill 10-11-8 (135)
09 Feb Cl 3 Hcap Chase (84 d) 24f gd/sf Kemp (139) 11/4 1l 2/7 off 133
Jumped well, led, still going strongly before 3 out, hard pressed and shaken up 2 out, headed last, no extra flat
Twice won at around 24f on sf last season and three decent efforts over 24f since joining current yard in the autumn; dropped back in trip today, which may help, but up 2lbs for his latest effort over 24f here last month.
Plus: class (F); going (W); course (F); trainer (C); form run lto (36 days);
Minus: distance; up 2lbs; up in class; drop in trip;
Verdict: (35) in good enough form for new yard and a chance if drop in trip suits, a contender.

Having dropped Bun Doran initially, I’m also going to drop Bentelimar from my shortlist, as he just doesn’t win enough. Cobra De Mai goes too, but only because the lack of stable form worries me. Brandon Hill, meanwhile, has shown all his form at around 24f so I’m not sure about the drop back in trip and again pass. So that leaves me with Kilcrea Vale who looks to have a favourite’s chance and who is preferred to Favorito Buck’s with perhaps Brandon Hill best of the rest.

Uttoxeter 15.35 Listed Hcap Chase 703 (144) 34 hv – 18 Run

Last year – 703 (144) sf 20 ran
Chase The Spud 11/1 9-10-12 (130) by 1.5l from Mysteree 8/1 9-11-1 (133)
Alfie Spinner 25/1 12-11-3 (135) was 23.1l 9th
Benbens 50/1 12-11-0 (139) PU before 2 out

The Artful Cobbler 7-10-3 (121)
19 Feb Cl 3 Hcap Chase (96 u) 29f hv Ling (122) 13/2 0.5l 1/9 off 113
Travelled strongly throughout, chased leader until joined leader 9th, led after 11th, jumped boldly and rider unbalanced 13th, ridden after 2 out, just over 1 length clear and dived last, held on under pressure flat
Has really taken to fences since being put to the larger obstacles this season, winning 3 of 4 starts and recording another career best when completing his hat-trick in taking the Surry National at Lingfield last month; has been raised 8lbs for that and is very much up in class today, but Lingfield run suggested there could be more to come at this distance and handles the ground.
Plus: going (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (26 days); career best lto;
Minus: class (?); course (?); up 8lbs; up 2 classes;
Verdict: (49) rapidly improving first-year novice chaser who may have more to give, a contender.
Get On The Yager 8-11-8 (140)
O5 Feb Cl 4 Nov Chase (46 d) 20.5f sf South (140) 6/4 2.5l 2/5 off 140
Chased leaders, ridden 12th and outpaced briefly, hard driven to go 2nd before 2 out, not quicken after and always held
26 Dec Gr 3 Hcap Chase (229 u) 24f sf Weth (152) 100/30 F 0.1l 1/8 off 133
Held up in touch, mistake 5 out but soon tracked leaders, not fluent 3 out, soon ridden, stayed on run-in, led near finish
Another promising first-year novice chase whose latest effort at Southwell can be discounted as the trip was far too short and he may have needed the race; better judged on his effort when taking the Rowland Meyrick at Wetherby on Boxing Day; runs off a 7lbs higher mark here and that is a worry, as you have to go back Bonanza Boy in 1991 to find a winner with his allotted 11-8 or more; however, Firebird Flyer two years ago and Synchronised in 2010 have both managed to hump 11-5 to victory this millennium; just wish the stable was in better form though (1/34)!
Plus: class (W+); going (W); distance (W); trainer (C); form run lto (40);
Minus: course; trainer (1/34 14d);
Verdict: (43) presuming that Southwell was just to keep him ticking over, should enter consideration, although weight and stable form make him a contender with questions.
West Of The Edge 10-10-13 (131)
24 Feb Cl 2 Hcap Chase (500 u) 32.5f hv Nwcs (149) 11/1 4l 2/17 off 128
Held up towards rear, steady headway 16th, effort and led before 2 out, headed last, kept on same pace run-in
Career really took off over fences after joining his current yard last season winning 3 of 5 starts; not enjoyed the same success in 4 starts this term, although has been runner-up the last twice on hv; recorded a career best in the Eider at Newcastle lto when a clear runner-up to Baywing with Hainan (+12) and Milansbar (+15) more distanced finishers and Back To The Thatch (+1) among the fallers, although going well at the time; has been raised 3lbs for that , but the major question is how well he’s recovered from those exertions; he also has to break the age barrier as no horse older than 9yo has won since 11yo Lucky Lane in 1995.
Plus: going (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (21 days); career best lto;
Minus: class (?); course (?); up 3lbs; up in class; age (?);
Verdict: (42) older and more exposed than the average winner, but has to be considered on Eider form, a contender.
Hainan 7-11-7 (139)
24 Feb Cl 2 Hcap Chase (500 u) 32.5f hv Nwcs (149) 11/2 20.2l 4/17 off 140
Chased leaders, ridden to lead before 4 out, headed before 2 out, weakened before last
Second-season chaser who won over 28.5f on hv at Haydock in November, but appeared to find today’s trip beyond his capabilities in the Eider lto; has been dropped 1lb for that, but still has a lot to find with West Of The Edge and I can see no reason why he should reverse that running.
Plus: going (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); down 1lb;
Minus: class; course; 112 days since form run; up in class;
Verdict: (37) suspect trip a mite too far and not the strongest contender.
Back To The Thatch 6-10-11 (129)
24 Feb Cl 2 Hcap Chase (500 u) 32.5f hv Nwcs (149) 6/1 F/17 off 129
Held up, smooth headway to chase leaders before 14th, going well when fell 16th
19 Jan Cl 4 Hcap Chase (46 d) 23.5f hv Chep (120) 11/4 F 11l 1/10 off 120
Travelled well most of way, tracked leaders, hit 10th, led 4 out, in command when hit 2 out, comfortably
First-season novice who goes well on demanding ground as when winning over 23.5f at Chepstow in January; however, not the most fluent of jumpers and although he got away with it at Chepstow has fallen in 2 of his 5 chase starts, including last time in the Eider; although he was going well at the time and meets West Of The Edge on 3lbs better terms, he has even further to traverse and remain upright. Moreover, there has only been a pair of 6yo winners in the 46 renewals to date, the last Big Occasion in 2013 carrying 9-7.
Plus: going (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C);
Minus: class (?); distance; course (?); up in class; age;
Verdict: (25) market position looks on expectation more than form to date and too many negatives to be a prime contender.
A race that tends to go to unexposed chasers in the 7yo to 9yo age group. Moreover, with the ground likely to be demanding it’s likely to follow normal consensus that those carrying less than 11-0 have the best chance. Silsol fails to make the cut on both weight and chase form, while Regal Flow and Alfie Spinner are ruled out on weight and age grounds.

From my shortlist, the first to go is Back To The Thatch who has questions about his jumping fluency, plus is way up in both distance and class from his only success over fences. I’m also inclined to pass on Hainan, for whom this trip might be a tad too far, plus he is up towards the top end of the weights. So too is Get On The Yager, although his Boxing Day win at Wetherby suggests he may have earned it. My other problem is the stable form and although he saddled the County Hurdle winner this week, Skelton’s horses have in general been getting beaten by wide margins of late. That leaves me with The Artful Cobbler and West Of The Edge, both of which have trends to buck too. For Artful Cobbler, it’s going for a four-timer in a handicap, plus no past winner had ever recorded more than two wins in the current season. Age and experience is the bugbear for West Of The Edge, but his career has entered a whole new phase since joining his current yard and he also carries less than 11-0. Thus I’m going for The Artful Cobbler from West Of The Edge with perhaps Get On The Yager the best of those towards the top of the handicap.

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