Saturday 24th March

Any comments on today's racing. Please don't just put in selections ... please add some reason why you think a runner will win
Devasteve
Posts: 546
Joined: Fri Jan 16, 2015 8:29 am

Saturday 24th March

Postby Devasteve » Sat Mar 24, 2018 12:44 pm

Well, having continued to fall deeper into the crevice of non-winners since before Cheltenham, let’s hope a change of codes will bring better luck – I know, ever the eternal optimist!

Doncaster 14.25 Cl 2 Hcap 280 (96) 8f sf – 21 Run (20 at best)

Last year – 280 (97) gd/sf 21 Ran
Ballet Concerto 8/1 4-9-0 (97) Dr 6 by 0.75l from Sinfonietta 12/1 5-9-2 (90) Dr 3
Sir Roderic 25/1 4-9-8 (96) Dr 18 was 8.1l12th
Lord Of The Rock 33/1 5-9-5 (93) Dr 15 was 16.65l 19th

Original Choice 4-9-9 (94) Dr 16
30 Sep Cl 2 Hcap (125 s) 8d hv Hayd (99) 7/2 F 0.05l 2/13 off 92
Tracked leading pair, wide straight, headway over 2f out, ridden to lead well over 1f out, driven and headed just inside final furlong, rallied gamely towards finish Tracked leading pair, wide straight, headway over 2f out, ridden to lead well over 1f out, driven and headed just inside final furlong, rallied gamely towards finish
Progressive as a 3yo and closed his campaign by recording a career best when just going down at Haydock at the end of September; begins this season off a 2lbs higher mark but could well be more to come as a 4yo,
Plus: class (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (175 days); career best lto;
Minus: going; course (?); up 2lbs;
Verdict: (51) improved as 3yo and could have yet more to offer, a contender from an in-form yard.
What’s The Story 4-9-7 (92) Dr 15
21 Feb Cl 2 Hcap (280 u) 7f AW Nwcs (100) 11/4 F 1.25l 3/14 off 92
In touch, effort and headway over 1f out, ridden to challenge inside final furlong, no extra last 75yds
11 Nov Cl 3 Hcap (75 u) 7f sf Donc (90) 9/1 2.5l 1/20 off 84
Tracked leaders, smooth headway to lead over 2f out, ridden clear over 1f out, kept on strongly
Runner-up on all 3 starts as a 2yo, won both starts at 3yo, including a big field hcap over 7f here in November; upped to this level at Newcastle last month and only faded late on; should be fitter today and interesting that Moore has been booked for the ride; however, it will be first attempt at 8f.
Plus: class (F); going (W); course (W); trainer (14d); form run lto (31 days);
Minus: distance;
Verdict: (46) very lightly raced, but a likely contender if staying the trip
Taqdeer 5-9-10 (95) Dr 3
01 May (2016) Cl 3 3yo-Hcap (97 u) 10f gd Nwmk (95) 15/8 F 0.5l 1/8 off 87
Steadied and squeezed for room leaving stalls, held up in last pair, effort 2f out, headway and switched right just over 1f out, ridden to challenge inside final furlong, led final 100yds, ran on well
Runner-up on sole 2yo start, but won both at 3yo including a 10f hcap at Newmarket on his only turf start in the May; not seen thereafter though and while gelded in February 2017 again never set foot on a race course last year last year; high-power connections obviously believe that he’s worth the expense, so I guess the market will give a clue as to belief back over 8f after so long a break.
Plus: distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto; career best lto;
Minus: class (?); going (?); course (?); up in class; up 8lbs; 692-day break;
Verdict: (46) one turf start and long break are problems in seeing him as a strong contender, although can’t entirely ignore.
Kynren 4-9-8 (93) Dr 19
19 Sep Cl 4 Hcap (65 u) 8f sf Red (86) 2/1 F 3l 1/10 off 85
Tracked leader, pushed along to lead over 1f out, kept on well to draw clear, readily
Unraced at 2yo but placed on AW debut last June before winning all 3 of his turf starts, the latest a Cl 4 hcap in September ; raised 8lbs to start the season and is up a couple of classes, but this only fifth start so plenty of scope for improvement.
Plus: going (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (186 days); career best lto;
Minus: class (?); course (?); up 8lbs; up 2 classes;
Verdict: (43) new test today, but likely has improvement to come and a possible contender

A race that’s been dominated by 4yos who have won 8 of the past 10 renewals. As such there is not an awful lot of past form to go on as winners are usually improvers beginning to make a name for themselves. Not much different this year and besides the quartet on my shortlist, Sir Roderic making his first start since a wind operation is dangerously well handicapped 9lbs below his last winning mark. Another that is worth watching is Cymraeg Bounty who showed a bunch of promise in 2016, but missed the whole of last season and makes his debut for Olly Murphy today. Of those I did list, I haven’t a clue about Taqdeer, although he’s currently leading the betting, but while he may well win, there are too many questions for me. Questions too as to whether Kynren can handle the steep rise in class, so I’m inclined to go for Original Choice and What’s The Story. So Original Choice from What’s The Story with possibly Sir Roderic proving a longer-priced danger is my best guess.

Doncaster 15.35 Cl 2 Hcap 623 (107) 8f sf – 22 Run (21 at best)

Last year – 623 (108) gd/sf 22 ran
Bravery 20/1 4-9-1 (100) Dr 20 by 0.25l from Oh This Is Us 7/2 F 4-9-6 (105) Dr 2
Donncha 7/1 5-9-1 (100) Dr 21 was 0.5l 3rd
Gabrial 16/1 8-9-6 (108) Dr 4 was 1l 4th
Dolphin Vista 12/1 4-9-0 (99) Dr 10 was 2.25l 5th
Withernsea 25/1 6-8-12 (97) Dr 7 was 2.85l 9th

[b]Ballard Down [/b]5-9-5 (102) Dr 17
22 Jul Cl 2 Hcap (280 u) 8f sf Nwmk (103) 16/1 3.5l 1/13 off 93
Tracked leaders, led over 1f out, ridden clear final furlong, eased near finish
Just the 3 starts on turf, but was impressive when setting a career best in winning in similar conditions under today’s jockey at Newmarket last July; not seen since, and starts off a 9lbs higher mark today, but could well have more to show; however, looking for his first winner here (0/13).
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); form run lto (245 days); career best lto;
Minus: course (?); up 8lbs;
Verdict: (49) little worried he didn’t run after July, but conditions should suit and a potential contender.
Addeybb 4-9-2 (99) Dr 10
29 Sep Cl 2 Hcap (187 d) 9f gd/sf Nwmk (93) 7/2 Jt F 0.5l 1/16 off 93
Tracked leaders, effort to chase leader 2f out, driven and every chance 1f out, kept on well under pressure to lead towards finish, driven out
Unraced as 2yo, but won 3 of his 5 starts as a 3yo, the latest when setting a career best in taking the Silver Cambridgeshire at Newmarket in September with Fire Brigade (-3) was 0.55l back in 3rd; raised 6lbs for that and drops back in trip, but trainer knows what’s needed to win this race, although Moore has opted to ride Fire Brigade; drawn lower middle and close to the likely early pace..
Plus: class (W); going (F); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (176 days); career best lto;
Minus: course (?); up 6lbs;
Verdict: (43) impressive in Silver Cambridgeshire and a solid contender from a trainer who has a good record in the race.
Lord Glitters 5-9-10 (107) Dr 9
04 Nov List Stks (210 d) 8f gd/sf Nwmk (111) 0.25l 2/6 off 107
Taken down early, steadied start and held up in touch in rear, effort over 1f out, ridden to chase leaders and edged right over 1f out, every chance inside final furlong, kept on well but held towards finish
21 Oct Cl 2 Hcap (1556 u) 8f sf Ascot (110) 3/1 F 0.25 1/20 off 102
held up well in rear, still in last pair 2f out, not clear run and switched left well over 1f out, rapid progress final furlong, strong run to lead last strides
French import in mid-season last year and quickly showed his worth for his new words with a pair of runner-up spots sandwiching his success in the valuable Balmoral hcap at Ascot in October when he had several of today’s field behind him; recorded a career best at Ascot, but perhaps a slight disappointment in subsequent Newmarket, although the winner was rated 4lbs higher and was thus entitled to win at level weights; obviously has a touch of class, but runs off 5lbs higher than at Ascot and Babodana in 2004 is the last of only 2 horses to win with this weight the past 50+ years; not only do top weights have a generally poor record here, so do horses coming from non-hcaps, plus trainer not in sparkling form (0/12),
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); form run lto (140 days); down in class;
Minus: course (?); non-hcap lto; top weight;
Verdict: (39) classy individual with scope for further improvement but perhaps not the strongest contender today.
Big Country 5-9-8 (105) Dr 16
10 Mar Cl 2 Hcap (311 u) 8.5f AW Wolv (101) 8/1 0.75l 1/11 off 100
Soon led, headed over 7f out, chased leader until ridden to lead over 1f out, driven out
Ran his AW to 3/3 when taking the Trial at Wolverhampton a fortnight back; however, he’s just 1/11 on turf with his best form coming over 10.5f at York; moreover, recent winners have generally not run in the UK since the previous season and if memory serves me right, Nimello in 2001 was the last Trial winner to double up in the main event; carries a 5lbs penalty today, which raises him to an 11lbs higher mark than for his only turf win at York last June, plus over 2 horses have won with more than 9-5 in the past 50 years .
Plus: class (W); going (F); distance (W); trainer (14d); form run lto (14 days); career best lto;
Minus: course; 5lbs penalty; weight; turf record;
Verdict: (39) too many questions to be a major contender under this weight.
Fire Brigade 4-9-1 (98) Dr 19
30 Oct Cl 2 Hcap (129 d) 8f gd/sf Leic (102) 9/2 F 0.5l 1/10 off 94
Held up, headway over 4f out, not clear run over 1f out, shaken up and quickened to lead well inside final furlong
Showed nothing in initial 4 starts as a 2yo, but was much better after being gelded, opening his account on the AW in the November; continued to improve as a 3yo winning 4 of his 10 starts and finishing a close 3rd to Addeybb (+3) in the Silver Cambridgeshire; built on that to close out the season by winning at Leicester off a 4lbs higher mark; starts this season off a further 4lbs higher mark; interestingly, Ryan Moore switches from Addeybb to ride Fire Brigade today even though the former is 2lbs better off than at Newmarket.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); form run lto (145 days);
Minus: course (?); up 4lbs;
Verdict: (37) improving sort and a contender despite being worse off with Addeybb.
Chelsea Lad 5-9-4 (101) Dr 14
11 Nov Cl 2 Hcap (436 u) 12f sf Donc (106) 20/1 11.25 2/23 off 98
In touch on inner, ridden 3f out, headway 2f out, chased leaders approaching final furlong, stayed on, edged right towards finish
Was 2/3 going into last season, but failed to add to his tally in 7 starts either side of a July gelding operation; did not run that badly though and was off a 2lbs higher mark than starting the season when closing by finishing runner-up in the November Hcap here on the final weekend in a career best performance; has been raised a further 3lbs for that, but a bigger worry is the drop back in trip and whether he has the speed to stay in touch with the initial leaders from his mid draw.
Plus: class (F); going (F); distance (W); course (F); trainer (C); form run lto (133 days); career best lto;
Minus: up 3lbs; drop back in trip;
Verdict: (28) question about the drop in trip, but a potential contender.

The first ‘biggie’ of the Flat season and it will be a question of who has managed to overcome the recent inclement weather and get their horse racing fit on grass; I noted that Fahey was bemoaning the fact that his 2yos may be a bit behind this year as he’s had difficulties in giving them a run on grass. How that will affect today we shall have to see, but it’s always worth the while to see what has happened in the past. And that can change, as I can remember in the distant past to always keep an eye on those horses that had been hurdling over the winter. That is no longer the case and it is becoming increasingly the fashion for winners to come from those who haven’t had a run in the UK since last season. Yes, Nimello did win in 2001, but that’s the sort of exception that proves the rule.

One things hasn’t changed though is that we’re still looking for 4yo to 6yo contenders, as only two older horses have won in the past 50 years or so. Now while the weights of winners have been edging up over recent years, only Babodana in 2004 has carried more than 9-4 to victory this century. You can generally forget horses coming from other than Cl 2 or Cl 3 handicaps lto too, plus a previous win over at least 8f is virtually a must. There are others such as a win in one of the last 4 starts,

That said, don’t be surprised if older campaigners such as Gabrial, Doncha and Withernsea aren’t far away again, as they make a habit of doing so in these big handicaps without winning. Of those that didn’t quite make my shortlist. Mitchum Swagger (weight) and Leader Writer (recent AW run) are worth the mention. Now turning my attention to those that did make the list, Big Country is the first to go carrying a penalty for his Wolverhampton win putting over my upper weight limit too, plus he has a poor turf strike rate. Lord Glitters coming from a stakes with a top weight that only two horses in over 50 years have defied, sort of does for his chances in my book. That leaves a quartet, any of which could win and this is where it gets tricky. I know longer priced winners have been of vogues of late, but Chelsea Lad is dropping back 4f and I’m not sure he has the pace to win over 8f anymore, so reluctantly I’ll pass. My problem with Ballard Down is not just the weight, but the fact that he’s been off since last July and thus he might just need the run. That leaves the pair coming from last year’s Silver Cambridgeshire, and I’m reminded that Sweet Lightning and Levitate came from the previous year’s Cambridgeshire. So as I can see no reason for the form to be reversed. I’m going for Addeybb to give Haggas yet another Lincoln success at the main expense of Fire Brigade with Ballard Down and Chelsea Lad scrapping it out for the minor placings.

mickyj25
Posts: 43
Joined: Sun Jan 18, 2015 1:10 pm

Re: Saturday 24th March

Postby mickyj25 » Sat Mar 24, 2018 4:30 pm

Well picked sir !!

Devasteve
Posts: 546
Joined: Fri Jan 16, 2015 8:29 am

Re: Saturday 24th March

Postby Devasteve » Sun Mar 25, 2018 3:39 am

Thanks Mickyj, it's nice when you get intelligent horses that can read the script!


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